Coup attempt in Turkey

[Queequeg]

Support the military. Islam is the enemy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Lots of live video up on reddit now, tanks running over cars on the streets, apparently the Turkish Air Force is bombing the Intelligence HQ now.

However this ends this is now pretty serious, and likely to see a lot of dead people.

[mongers]

Well I don't think a Turkish civil war was on anyone's radar, but now, if things go very badly wrong then who knows? 

Not sure the region or western policy in the ME could endure another Syria like civil war. I'd expect to see UN authorised intervention to stop one escalating into such a disaster.

On which side would the UN intervene - neither choice would be particularly attractive.

Well we're not there yet by a long stretch and this coup could well fizzle out, but given Erdogan's character I think he'd pull the country down around his ears rather than give up power. So if it gets very bad, they should intervene on the side most likely to win quickly in any substantial armed confrontation, for the sake of the civilians.

[Queequeg]

Hearing reports of an F-16 attacking the Presidential Palace in Ankara.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Video on reddit now of a crowd of protesters being fired into, people dropping.

[Liep]

Video on reddit now of a crowd of protesters being fired into, people dropping.

[Valmy]

Support the military. Islam is the enemy.

Well I don't think it matters who we support.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Kurdish opposition party has  come out against the coup.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have to assume that's something as they have no love of Erdogan, suggests maybe they're trying to side with who they think is going to win.

[mongers]

Maybe this firing on civilians is a sign of weakness from the coup troops, if they had overwhelming power and control they could afford to use non-deadly force?

[OttoVonBismarck]

The commander of Turkey's First Army, Gen. Umit Dundar, said on live television that the Turkish army does not support the coup launched against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, multiple journalists reported via Twitter on July 15. Dundar's comments indicate that not all elements of the Turkish military support the coup, which opens the possibility for a counter-coup. 

[Malicious Intent]

Kurdish opposition party has  come out against the coup.

Won't save them if the coup fails.

[Queequeg]

Maybe this firing on civilians is a sign of weakness from the coup troops, if they had overwhelming power and control they could afford to use non-deadly force?

Exactly what I'm thinking.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Right, if they had the whole military they'd have back up, they could even afford to leave public spaces and regroup while reinforcements arrive. But if it's just a small contingent then they can't flee any of the strategic points they've taken because they need to hold them to keep the coup alive. If that's the case they have little option other than trying to disperse a building mob around them with lethal force.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So it sounds like this was more than just a few guys, enough to make it serious, but not with the support of the full military--which means their chances of success are much, much lower. I'm not sure a small coup like that can truly work in modern Turkey, the military would have to be unified to take Erdogan out.