Coup attempt in Turkey

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, and for police in APCs and with small arms to be able to beat back the military means not much of the military was involved. Any serious concentration of the Turkish Army would've mopped up cops armed like that pretty damn quickly.

[OttoVonBismarck]

In Ankara the Turkish Parliament building is apparently being shot at by a helicopter and smoke is seen coming from it. At the same time, regime-controlled media is reporting an "emergency session" of the legislature. Surely the legislature isn't going to meet with their actual building under attack.

Also when this ends, think about the grave nature of the damage already inflicted. In an evening Turkey's mlitary HQ has been the site of a hostage attack and probably damaged. The state broadcaster was seized, the intelligence HQ was bombed, there was heavy fighting in the Presidential palace, at the major airports in Istanbul and Ankara, and the Parliament building is now apparently on fire.

Big hangover/cleanup.

[Sophie Scholl]

That also implies that the military would be willing to use massive amounts of deadly force.  With the mosques calling people to the streets, Erdogan calling everyone to flood the streets, the police had huge numbers of human shields if the military didn't want to escalate to that level of violence.  It certainly wasn't well thought out at the least.

[DGuller]

Sounds like letting Erdogan call people to the streets was a fatal mistake, if the military had the opportunity to arrest him.

[Malicious Intent]

Turkish news channel NTV is showing videos of small groups of disarmed military personell being led away by police officers.

The coups military forces must be stretched really thin for this to happen.

[DGuller]

The only hope for the coup is if the same popular uprising happens on the other side in the morning.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean with Erdogan out of the the capital and possibly out of the country he may not have been easily arrested. But it calls back into question the timing of the coup. If they could storm the Presidential palace, the military HQ, the TRT building, the AKP building, and take two major airports they probably had enough manpower to bust into the Presidential palace while Erdogan was there, at some other time, and take him into custody.

With him not taken out he was likely able to coordinate with his Islamic allies, and also was able to send orders to different parts of the Turkish military. If he had been taken out immediately, then the other parts of the Turkish military would be looking at a different situation, the coup would have control of the capital and Istanbul with the President in custodyl, and it's quite possible the generals might have sided with the coup at that point and Erdogan would be in prison for awhile before probably being exiled.

It also looks like they made other strategic mistakes, like seizing state run TRT but not (theoretically independent) NTV. NTV is independent but has effectively always ignored the worst of Erdogan's abuses, either out of fear of being shut down like other media outlets or out of genuine pro-Erdogan sympathies. NTV functioned effectively as a mouth piece for the regime, showing regime loyal people on the airwaves giving people orders to go to the streets, and also reporting negatively on the success of the coup very early on.

[LaCroix]

@MI

yeah, over a live stream, I saw a crowd stomp a soldier then shoot him in the head. the people rallied pretty well/quickly.

[OttoVonBismarck]

That also implies that the military would be willing to use massive amounts of deadly force.  With the mosques calling people to the streets, Erdogan calling everyone to flood the streets, the police had huge numbers of human shields if the military didn't want to escalate to that level of violence.  It certainly wasn't well thought out at the least.

I mean at the end of the day a coup is the illegal, violent overthrow of a government. Probably shouldn't try one if you don't believe your men are willing to get blood on their boots. Coups are nasty things. It's not likely they'd have had to massacre thousands and thousands, but to deal with the crowds they'd probably have to kill dozens or hundreds (most humans will flee if the huge crowd they are in gets lit up with gunfire.)

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've seen a few videos of independent, solo soldiers being attacked by crowds or arrested by police, but with no context. I can't imagine the "in force" deployed troops that seized various strategic points would've let that happen without shooting back. It makes me wonder if individual soldiers were coming in from home or whatever when they heard the coup started and trying to link up, and  were waylaid by angry crowds. If so there was some serious miscommunication somewhere.

[Sophie Scholl]

That also implies that the military would be willing to use massive amounts of deadly force.  With the mosques calling people to the streets, Erdogan calling everyone to flood the streets, the police had huge numbers of human shields if the military didn't want to escalate to that level of violence.  It certainly wasn't well thought out at the least.

I mean at the end of the day a coup is the illegal, violent overthrow of a government. Probably shouldn't try one if you don't believe your men are willing to get blood on their boots. Coups are nasty things. It's not likely they'd have had to massacre thousands and thousands, but to deal with the crowds they'd probably have to kill dozens or hundreds (most humans will flee if the huge crowd they are in gets lit up with gunfire.)

The '97 "coup" was remarkably bloodless.  They might have been banking on the same thing for this one.

[DGuller]

It's a high stakes bluff.  It works if people are scared to call it, but it fails once there is a belief that it's all it is.

[Tamas]

It's a high stakes bluff.  It works if people are scared to call it, but it fails once there is a belief that it's all it is.

I guess the plotters had a hard time believing an Islamising palace-building cosplay-maniac dictator is what the people of Turkey want. Now they now. And the world knows as well.

[LaCroix]

I think they underestimated the peoples' response. beyond a few instances, the soldiers probably weren't all too willing to shoot into a crowd, or anticipating the need for it. once you secure your objectives, then what? those crowds got bigger and bigger, and the gunfire didn't seem to disperse them all too much (at least on the streams I saw).

[Tamas]

I think they underestimated the peoples' response. beyond a few instances, the soldiers probably weren't all too willing to shoot into a crowd, or anticipating the need for it. once you secure your objectives, then what? those crowds got bigger and bigger, and the gunfire didn't seem to disperse them all too much (at least on the streams I saw).

Maybe. But I have yet to see a crowd bigger than a few hundred people. Let's not declare a victor just yet.