Coup attempt in Turkey

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's possible Tamas--but if the military is truly united behind the coup then I don't see the police forces winning long term, they'll just be massively outgunned. So they'll lose the cities and military bases, but it's possible Erdogan loyalists could go all partisan on them, in which case Turkey will be a bad place for a long time.

[Duque de Bragança]

So what are the odds of a stalemate devolving into an eventual Syria situation in Turkey?

This would make NATO intervention much more likely as well. Oh, and did someone mention refugees?

[OttoVonBismarck]

If it becomes an actual civil war NATO has to get involved somewhat since we have bases there, even if it's just to leave the country.

I'm now hearing of a civilian versus military clash at the Bosporus bridge. This is where things can get really ugly. Obviously the soldiers could disperse the crowds, but that creates a major problem because mowing down a crowd of civilians will make it much more likely this goes from being a potential coup to a potential civil war.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Mosques are also blaring call to prayer and saying to take to the streets for God and the President. So this is likely to end well. 

[Queequeg]

Smart Turkey watchers are saying this thing is likely stillborn.  CHP and Gul are both coming out against it.  Not a lot of signs that the military is trying to take power outside of Istanbul and Akara and it is obvious that Erdogan has some firepower.

I'm hearing reports of full auto gunfire in Beyoglu and the brdiges.  This is already ugly.  I suspect we're already looking at a thousand dead.  Rumor is Hulusi Akar died in an attempted abduction.

[Duque de Bragança]

Mosques are also blaring call to prayer and saying to take to the streets for God and the President. So this is likely to end well. 

I'm shocked, shocked to hear mosques supporting an islamist in power.

[DGuller]

If it becomes an actual civil war NATO has to get involved somewhat since we have bases there, even if it's just to leave the country.

I'm now hearing of a civilian versus military clash at the Bosporus bridge. This is where things can get really ugly. Obviously the soldiers could disperse the crowds, but that creates a major problem because mowing down a crowd of civilians will make it much more likely this goes from being a potential coup to a potential civil war.

Could also turn into the end of the coup pretty quickly.  Hard for a military to stay united when they're ordered to fire on civilians.

[mongers]

Well I don't think a Turkish civil war was on anyone's radar, but now, if things go very badly wrong then who knows? 

Not sure the region or western policy in the ME could endure another Syria like civil war. I'd expect to see UN authorised intervention to stop one escalating into such a disaster. 

[Solmyr]

Apparently Erdogan has now asked for asylum in Britain.

[crazy canuck]

Well I don't think a Turkish civil war was on anyone's radar, but now, if things go very badly wrong then who knows? 

Not sure the region or western policy in the ME could endure another Syria like civil war. I'd expect to see UN authorised intervention to stop one escalating into such a disaster.

On which side would the UN intervene - neither choice would be particularly attractive.

[mongers]

Apparently Erdogan has now asked for asylum in Britain.

Are these comedy tweets?   

I think he'd be better off asking to stay in Scotland.

[Legbiter]

Apparently Erdogan has now asked for asylum in Britain.

He should give Putin a call.

[Duque de Bragança]

Apparently Erdogan has now asked for asylum in Britain.

Londonistan makes sense.

[Ed Anger]

Spellus last seen among Turkish troops in Thrace attempting to have them declare him Emperor.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Smart Turkey watchers are saying this thing is likely stillborn.  CHP and Gul are both coming out against it.  Not a lot of signs that the military is trying to take power outside of Istanbul and Akara and it is obvious that Erdogan has some firepower.

I'm hearing reports of full auto gunfire in Beyoglu and the brdiges.  This is already ugly.  I suspect we're already looking at a thousand dead.  Rumor is Hulusi Akar died in an attempted abduction.

I tend to agree, especially if we don't hear of any widening moves by the military. Right now we know they seized military HQ, the airport in Istanbul, the TRT offices and the AKP offices. But that was all a good bit ago. If that's all they're going to do then likely there aren't enough of them mobilized to take the country, especially if they're facing heavy resistance.