Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

The average voter doesn't know his arse from his elbow Valmy, you are an American so you must be familiar with that.

Ok but even here if Texas had a vote to secede from the Union I don't think anybody would be idiotic enough to think that means becoming the second Puerto Rico. Surely you guys are smarter than Texans.

Some of the former industrial centres are dreadful, everybody clever has been leaving them for 50 years or more, the effect on culture is appalling.

[alfred russel]

I don't think they should leave, despite the vote. It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way.

Why? Norway and Switzerland are getting along just fine.

[derspiess]

OMG SWITTSERLAND IS TEH DEVIL

[Berkut]

I don't think they should leave, despite the vote. It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way.

It would be disastrous if they just ignored the referendum as well. Which is why you don't have a referendum if you are unable to honor it.

They are picking between various bad options at this point.

Pissing off a bunch of dumbasses seems a radically less bad option than fucking over the entire country for generations.

[Valmy]

I don't think they should leave, despite the vote. It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way.

Why? Norway and Switzerland are getting along just fine.

So are many countries outside the EU. Heck Canada is doing fine so clearly it wouldn't hurt Georgia to declare independence? I mean context here Dorsey.

[Berkut]

I don't think they should leave, despite the vote. It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way.

Why? Norway and Switzerland are getting along just fine.

So? They were never in the EU to begin with.

Show me a country in the EU that left and is doing just as well.

If they never entered the EU I might even argue that they are better off not getting in, but leaving once you are in? Different thing entirely.

[Valmy]

Pissing off a bunch of dumbasses seems a radically less bad option than fucking over the entire country for generations.

But it undermines the legitimacy of the system.

I mean if there is a general election called and somehow avowed pro-remain parties are swept into a majority then alright. But considering both the Conservatives and the Labour party are split on this issue and the third largest party is the UKIP I highly doubt that would happen. But the people are supposed to be sovereign right?

I just worry about the backlash world wide against the entire western system of government if the UK does not honor this election. Already people seem eager to rip it all down.

So thanks Cameron for that.

[Berkut]

Pissing off a bunch of dumbasses seems a radically less bad option than fucking over the entire country for generations.

But it undermines the legitimacy of the system.

I mean if there is a general election called and somehow avowed pro-remain parties are swept into a majority then alright. But considering both the Conservatives and the Labour party are split on this issue and the third largest party is the UKIP I highly doubt that would happen. But the people are supposed to be sovereign right?

I just worry about the backlash world wide against the entire western system of government if the UK does not honor this election. Already people seem eager to rip it all down.

So thanks Cameron for that.

It isn't an election, it is an advisory referendum.

So like I said, there is a simple solution.

Go about "leaving" the EU. This will take a long time. Lots to talk about.

In the meantime, whatever process was used to initiate this referendum can be used to initiate another one. Do that.

Then maybe have another referendum to stop having stupid fucking referendums.

[derspiess]

Berkut: enemy of the people.

[Valmy]

Then maybe have another referendum to stop having stupid fucking referendums.

Hear hear good sir!

[OttoVonBismarck]

No way Spain will let Scotland join.

If it gets to that point, we will.

Spain's position in this is often mischaracterized. There's a reason Spain recognizes Montenegro but not Kosovo. It's unilateral independence what bothers Madrid.

Yeah--I don't think Spain would block it, but I also don't think Scotland would get any special treatment in regard to their bad deficit numbers and etc. The countries that have been forced into austerity by Germany would revolt if Scotland were allowed in without setting its fiscal house in order. I think Rajoy's position is just there will be no working with a "subnational unit" at all, because he doesn't want to set that kind of precedent for Catalonia. But once Scotland's independence was a fait accompli I don't think the problem is the same. This means that no matter what Scotland will have to be Brexited, after which if it goes independent it will be years before it's in the EU.

Sturgeon I think was sniffing around for some promise that they'd be fast tracked in if they split away some time in the next few years--possibly even during the Article 50 two year window, and I don't believe that option will be allowed as Spain isn't even going to countenance coming to an agreement with a subnational entity.

[celedhring]

I think Rajoy's position is just there will be no working with a "subnational unit" at all, because he doesn't want to set that kind of precedent for Catalonia. But once Scotland's independence was a fait accompli I don't think the problem is the same.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. A historic demand from Catalan and Basque nationalist parties is being allowed at the table of EU negotiations. Rajoy just isn't going to allow that precedent to be set with Scotland. But Spain won't care if Scotland goes independent after a legal referendum and then asks for membership.

[OttoVonBismarck]

A referendum on such a big issue isn't just a matter of yes or no vote, it's much bigger than an election, and it's up to the parties to have their plans A&B.

Yep. People should have been presented with exactly what they were voting for. All the exit negotiations with the EU should have been completed and ready to go.

Still it just boggles the mind people voted to leave the EU thinking that meant they were going to stay in the EU but without voting rights like Norway. I guess I figured saying you want to leave the EU means you want to leave the EU. Not stay in the EU but in a fashion that removes more sovereignty and power from your nation.

I mean Americans have political positions just as asinine. Plus, as has been explained, Norway does have some leeway on some issues that a full EU member doesn't. Norway status is "functionally" the same as being in the EU with no vote, but there are minor areas where it isn't quite that. Plus, it's also a "political statement." It's basically saying Britain will not be part of the "European Federation" that is clearly the end goal of many. And to some segment of the population (especially old establishment Tories who opposed Maastricht), there is some importance there. These are the same as Americans who get all worked over symbolic things like flags and the pledge of allegiance.

But there was no realistic option for "all exit negotiations with the EU to be completed." Article 50 was put into the Lisbon Treaty under duress, and was designed in a way to make it not a good option. The two year window is quite short, considering how long it takes to negotiate much simpler arrangements like a "normal" free trade agreement. This isn't a mistake, this is to make leaving very hard for the leaver. The EU's remaining members would never want to pre-negotiate a potential exit, that just makes leaving really easy, which is the opposite of their goal.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think they should leave, despite the vote. It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way.

But if they do leave, they should just leave. Don't become Norway in relation to the EU, become the US in relation to the EU. Just another non-European country, but a big one.

If you are going to cut ties, then just do it - rip the bandaid off, and go from there. *Then* negotiate the best deal you can from a position as an outsider, if that is what is wanted.

It's a terrible idea, of course. But I don't see how you can honestly claim to implement a terrible idea in a non-terrible way.

Britain and America are quite different. Britain's integration and dependence on European trade is far larger. The EU in total is America's largest trading partner, but just barely, it's a huge market and is just barely more trade than we have with Canada, which is a country of only 35m people. The percentages are also different, the whole EU is just 17.5% of American trade. Canada is 16%, China is 15%, Mexico is 13%. We're fortunate in that we have a lot of trade with a lot of different countries and regions.

Britain I think Europe is 57% of its exports and 63% of its imports.

[OttoVonBismarck]

America is also a country still growing at a healthy rate population wise and with a vast and incredibly strong domestic economy. America being on its own is just way different than Britain.

I don't believe Britain couldn't make it on its own, I just think it's far better off in a Norway type union than it is having a similar arrangement to the EU as the United States.

I should mention--the United States relationship with the EU is tremendously complex and the subject of a mountain of bilateral agreements that took ages to negotiate--and the U.S. negotiates such agreements regularly, Britain apparently has like 20 guys on staff who do this kind of work. There's little chance Britain could hammer out the relationship with the EU that America has in 2 years.