Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

Amusing that despite all the vacancies, Corbyn has prioritized maintaining a full complement of whips.

There's a quote upstream from a whip to the effect it's not a resignable position, or  something like that.

[alfred russel]

I don't recall any republics ever being that Christian....

I doubt Sarko really wants France to be all that Christian. Probably being Christian is really more about not being Muslim.

[Sheilbh]

All MEPs and most MSPs have now called for Corbyn to go.

Amusing that despite all the vacancies, Corbyn has prioritized maintaining a full complement of whips.

I believe that the whips are officially neutral in leadership battles.

Until Ed Miliband the Labour PLP used to elect the Shadow Cabinet (which had led to some utter non-entities who were popular ending up as Ministers). Ed Miliband got rid of that, but I think it's still kept for the Chief Whip. Rosie Winterton won it unopposed in 2010 and I think kept it in 2015 or, as she's a known Corbyn-sceptic, it was seen as a coup that he got her to carry on.

But technically they serve the entire PLP. I think, as with Tom Watson having a decent roster, a lot of those whips are there for loyalty to her and, as with Tom Watson, I think she has an independent mandate.

[Sheilbh]

On the economy in general FTSE reacted to Carney's speech tonight and it turns out they like stimulus more than they fear uncertainty

But IIRC the Leavers want to take down Carney as well. 

Only the Faragiste wing and even his MP disagrees.

[alfred russel]

I think of the UK as a center left country--with the Conservatives enabled by the split of the left of center vote by the Lib Dems and Labour and a FPtP voting system (I know there are more parties and it is a bit more complex). Seems odd that the Conservatives are now in such a dominant position even with their own turmoil, but I suspect that is far more precarious than it seems at the moment.

[Jacob]

Good coherent overview of the Brexit roadmap: http://thebrexitplan.com/

[mongers]

Seems one of the more immediate Brexit effects, is to draw back estrange posters to Languish. 

[The Brain]

Income tax octopus tractor!

[garbon]

Seems one of the more immediate Brexit effects, is to draw back estrange posters to Languish. 

I'd rather have my money.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's unclear to me how many of the EU leaders are "hard" Brexiteers. I could imagine a lot of people in the EU not willing to even offer the UK a Norway-like deal. Especially not if Britain makes clear upfront that it is just an intermediate stage towards yet another deal.

I think while those sentiments may be there now, I think historically the EU has trended towards going to the reasonable option on tough decisions. I also think Norway is the "long game" for the EU. If you legit refuse to give Britain such a status, and relegate them to negotiating a U.S. style free trade deal then I think it closes the door on future reentry--remember the younger Brits would likely want back in when they're a majority. There's also peril in the complete divorce--what happens if Britain's economy does well? Britain is right now prettt well positioned economically because it's insulated to a degree from the Eurozone's problems. What if there's another economic crisis in Europe and independent Britain looks comparatively much better off. That suddenly is the EU's Federalists' worst nightmare--a living example that not only is leaving possible, you can thrive outside the EU.

I think the reason I so strongly believe Norway-status is the likely outcome is it's the least risk option available. When you subject things to a referendum like Britain has stupidly done anything can happen, but when you're negotiating things among national leaders I think cooler heads tend to prevail.

[Valmy]

I don't recall any republics ever being that Christian....

Nor do I recall Clovis having anything to do with them

Yeah the Republican movement was anti-Catholic before it was even a Republican movement.

[Josquius]

Since I earn my money in foreign currency I've been keeping an eye on the pound for over a year.
It really was a case of every time something appears in the news that is positive for the leave campaign the pound would drop.
Yet. ..

[Gups]

I think the reason I so strongly believe Norway-status is the likely outcome is it's the least risk option available. When you subject things to a referendum like Britain has stupidly done anything can happen, but when you're negotiating things among national leaders I think cooler heads tend to prevail.

But a Norway deal requires free movement of people and a very significant financial contribution. Impossible to see how that could be acceptable - it wold clearly breach the spirit of the referendum result.

[garbon]

I think the reason I so strongly believe Norway-status is the likely outcome is it's the least risk option available. When you subject things to a referendum like Britain has stupidly done anything can happen, but when you're negotiating things among national leaders I think cooler heads tend to prevail.

But a Norway deal requires free movement of people and a very significant financial contribution. Impossible to see how that could be acceptable - it wold clearly breach the spirit of the referendum result.

Presumably the will of the people could change between now and whenever a Brexit actually takes place.

[Gups]

I think the reason I so strongly believe Norway-status is the likely outcome is it's the least risk option available. When you subject things to a referendum like Britain has stupidly done anything can happen, but when you're negotiating things among national leaders I think cooler heads tend to prevail.

But a Norway deal requires free movement of people and a very significant financial contribution. Impossible to see how that could be acceptable - it wold clearly breach the spirit of the referendum result.

Presumably the will of the people could change between now and whenever a Brexit actually takes place.

Well, so what if it does (or indeed already has)? Unless we have another referendum, how can that be established. And if it is somehow established, why leave at all?

Collectively, as a nation, we have made our bed and must lie in it. It's politically impossible for any trade deal to allow free movement. If that means we get a crappy trade deal, then tough titties.