Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Well quite. We had huge net emigration until the 80s/90s. It wasn't because we were doing great...

We actually didn't go all the way to Beachy Head - walked from East Dean down to the cliffs and along to the gap and lighthouse basically. Though we did walk past Cuckmere Haven. Sadly it was slightly ruined because I immediately thought of Marti's 'kind and sensitive person' thing.

[Sheilbh]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

50% of people aren't racists. But the racists now think 50% of people agree with them.

First thing we need to do is get these pricks back into their caves.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Disgusting stuff Tamas 

[crazy canuck]

The best way to stop immigration is to become a poor country. We have (had?) this huge problem which other countries would call being successful 

And ironically the best way to become a poor country, if you already have a low birth rate, is to stop immigration.  So for the leave side it is a win win of sorts. 

[Agelastus]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

Disgraceful.

[Tamas]

I know these are an extreme minority, I have been amazed how welcoming the UK has been to me.

It does worry me a bit that this is the long term future of the country, however, if things go bad enough.
I am convinced UKIP will go after immigrants next, and if the chaos wil be big enough they will start convincing people.

[Zanza]

Arguably. I know someone who does a lot of work with Norwegians who all sent texts basically saying 'you've made the right choice' - he was a Remain voter though

I'm not so sure, as someone who is intensely relaxed about immigration. I actually think it'd probably make sense for this to be the sort of status that countries like us and Denmark and Sweden who, practically speaking, will never join the Euro should get, while countries who join the EU sign up for the whole project.

You could also just be an EU member and not join the Euro. You know, like Britain at the moment.

EEA membership for Britain is silly. You get an opt-out for fisheries and agriculture, but you still have freedom of movement, you still have net contributions to the EU budget, you still have to follow most regulation and you lose control, i.e. the exact opposite of the Leave campaign slogan.

[Zanza]

I know these are an extreme minority, I have been amazed how welcoming the UK has been to me.

It does worry me a bit that this is the long term future of the country, however, if things go bad enough.
I am convinced UKIP will go after immigrants next, and if the chaos wil be big enough they will start convincing people.

As that seems to be the usual evolution of parties like UKIP in Europe, I suspect you'll be proven right.

[Agelastus]

Just like the Fascists managed to convince us during the Great Depression with a chunk of our Establishment respecting Mussolini and sympathizing with Hitler...

Oh wait, that didn't happen.

With all due respect, Tamas, I consider you and Mongers both to be a bit hysterical about the alleged "rise of the Far Right" and UKIP turning from "anti- uncontrolled immigration" to "anti-immigrant" force.

In fact, the pair of you should cheer if Farage is stupid enough to do that - UKIP would become an electoral irrelevance within a year, just like the English Nationalists, The BNP, and all the rest of the alphabet soup of current and defunct far right parties. At its height during the Financial Crisis the BNP had 100 councillors and a couple of Euro MPs. That a credible force does not make.

[Admiral Yi]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

"Agata Brzezniak came to the UK on a scholarship from Poland when she was 17. She is now studying for a PhD in chemistry." 

[Agelastus]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

"Agata Brzezniak came to the UK on a scholarship from Poland when she was 17. She is now studying for a PhD in chemistry." 

Or, in other words, almost exactly the category of immigrant we most want and need.

[The Brain]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

Britain is weird.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think it will be too difficult to ignore the referendum result.  They voted leave.  The best, or only way to overturn that result is by another referendum.  But there needs to be an excuse before another one could be held.  The trigger could be after negotiations with the EU, the harsh divorce terms are presented to the electorate for another decision. 

They won't ignore the results, they just won't actually leave. They will hem and haw, and come up with plans, and this and that and the other thing.

They just won't actually leave - they might do something so they can pretend like they left...

My highly scientific probabilities:

5% chance a future government just outright ignores the referendum, based on things like popular will and/or the result of a general election
40% chance Britain gets into a Norway like situation, with probably also an "expedited path back" if Britain chooses it, setting this up to be a "temporary" thing
40% chance somehow the negotiated deal with the EU as to the manner of the exit gets put into a referendum that contains some sort of option like "the proposed deal is so bad we would prefer to stay in", thus giving the electorate a back-out option
15% chance Britain leaves with some deal less than what Norway has (i.e. a much fuller withdrawal from Europe.)

[OttoVonBismarck]

How many large companies will be willing to make investments in UK operations with all of this uncertainty hanging around; it's very much in the UK's economic interest to get plans and timetables organised for an orderly exit.

We do not need a rout nor a Dunkirk, a strategic withdrawal is needed.

As always "it'll depend", not all foreign direct investment in Britain is done to get access to the EU, some is just international investment in the domestic market. The latter are more likely to still be made. Anything relating to finance or etc likely is going to be on hold until we know more.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I predict that Britain will not leave the EU.

the damage is pretty much done.  Announcing "hey we're not leaving!  That was just a joke" is not gonna recuperate all those lost billions.  And they would look like fools since the EU will not renegotiate the deal under these conditions.

Of course it could--these are all paper losses.