Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[OttoVonBismarck]

Any seasoned investor knows big single day dips are simply times to buy. I firmly believe it was in Britain's economic interests to remain, but I also believe Britain is fundamentally a strong economy and that will be ultimately born out. Times of change cause chaos and short term economic trouble.

What is there to like about the British economy besides finance and higher education?  If the City departs en masse Britain is well and truly fucked.

In terms of investing the Dow is dropping 700+ tomorrow and that's got nothing to do with fundamentals. The idea that Britain is going to lose its finance industry is questionable, in terms of investing in Britain.

[alfred russel]

I think you're over-egging the pudding here.

No doubt this is momentous.  But not compared to the Berlin Wall.  And as for Putin... as long as this doesn't result in the demise of NATO (and no reason to think it will) I think it has little impact.

If the UK leaves, there's a wholesale European realignment coming.

If some sort of waffling prevents the UK from leaving, then yeah, too many eggs. If they leave the implications are pretty big. I don't think the EU is going to limp along in its current form, and I see a likely surge in alt right and anti-EU sentiment across Europe resulting.

Perhaps you're right. I hope you're right. But  Brexit is a big fucking deal for Europe. The continuation and stability of the EU has been the one solid constant of the European political scene since WWII. That era looks to be over.

Didnt the eu only form in like 1993?

I know im being a bit pendantic, and that there were a number of predecessor institutions, but the brexit conditions the uk will want will likely be similar to those. This doesnt need to be super disruptive, though it could be.

[Josquius]

Any seasoned investor knows big single day dips are simply times to buy. I firmly believe it was in Britain's economic interests to remain, but I also believe Britain is fundamentally a strong economy and that will be ultimately born out. Times of change cause chaos and short term economic trouble.

So I should send my money to the UK today? It won't drop more?

Only a fool a) would predict if it'll drop lower or not (it likely will at some point) and b) we know that it will rebound and tomorrow's prices will be very low relative to fundamental value.

I don't get what you mean there.
Obviously nobody knows for sure, that's a.
But b,...you think it will be up tomorrow?

I've never dealt with this sort of thing before.
And like it or not I am British and now it looks like I've no choice but to end up there.

[Zanza]

Now that we know what the British don't want, it will be interesting to see how the British government plans to find out what they want instead.

The EU should express respect for the result and then just offer the British government to start talks as soon as the British have an idea what they want.

I feel that EEA membership is not possible for Britain as that would not address any of the points of the Leave campaign (net contributions, freedom of movement, regulations).

The rest of the EU should analyze the motivations of the Leave voters very closely. I think similar sentiments exist in the other countries. I don't think leaving the EU will address these, neither in Britain nor elsewhere, but the EU is a convenient scapegoat and if we want to preserve it, we need to address these political questions. I think it is mainly losers of globalization and their valid fears and grievances that fire up these movements.

[MadImmortalMan]

In terms of investing the Dow is dropping 700+ tomorrow and that's got nothing to do with fundamentals. The idea that Britain is going to lose its finance industry is questionable, in terms of investing in Britain.

I'll snap up some calls at the open.

[celedhring]

I think this is epoch-shifting, and not for good. The wave of illiberalism sweeping the West has broken the first bulwark, and I'm truly afraid for the emboldening of nationalist forces in Europe and the resulting division, retrenchment and isolation that will be exploited by our enemies.

For now I'll go to amazon.co.uk and snap some shit though.

[Zanza]

I think you're over-egging the pudding here.

No doubt this is momentous.  But not compared to the Berlin Wall.  And as for Putin... as long as this doesn't result in the demise of NATO (and no reason to think it will) I think it has little impact.

If the UK leaves, there's a wholesale European realignment coming.

If some sort of waffling prevents the UK from leaving, then yeah, too many eggs. If they leave the implications are pretty big. I don't think the EU is going to limp along in its current form, and I see a likely surge in alt right and anti-EU sentiment across Europe resulting.

Perhaps you're right. I hope you're right. But  Brexit is a big fucking deal for Europe. The continuation and stability of the EU has been the one solid constant of the European political scene since WWII. That era looks to be over.

Didnt the eu only form in like 1993?

I know im being a bit pendantic, and that there were a number of predecessor institutions, but the brexit conditions the uk will want will likely be similar to those. This doesnt need to be super disruptive, though it could be.

Returning to the EEC is obviously not possible as it does not exist anymore. Its successor is the EEA and membership in that would not address any of the points of Leave (net contributions, freedom of movement, regulations).

[Zanza]

I think this is epoch-shifting, and not for good. The wave of illiberalism sweeping the West has broken the first bulwark, and I'm truly afraid for the emboldening of nationalist forces in Europe and the resulting division, retrenchment and isolation that will be exploited by our enemies.

Yes, could be the first of a wave. The return of nationalism.

[Liep]

Just heard a snippet of Farage's victory speech. Woah. I don't feel well now.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't get what you mean there.
Obviously nobody knows for sure, that's a.
But b,...you think it will be up tomorrow?

I've never dealt with this sort of thing before.
And like it or not I am British and now it looks like I've no choice but to end up there.

It's very likely world indexes like the Dow, FTSE, Dax, Nikkei will be down for a time. But it's also true that they will be down more than is reasonable. I'd suspect almost any blue chip investment made on 6/24 will be up at least 20% some time in the next 12 months.

As Benjamin Graham said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term it's a weighing machine. Reactions from people "voting" by buying or selling tend to be overly fast and reactionary, but the fundamental value ("weight") of various equities will be born out at the end. Geopolitical "shocks" like Brexit tend to produce very obvious opportunities to invest because the market irrationally begins valuing things too low. In this case global stocks but also even British pounds are going to be valued too low on 6/24.

[Tamas]

So Sheilbh is getting what he was secretly hoping for :p

[Fireblade]

So Sheilbh is getting what he was secretly hoping for :p

me too, you're getting deported

[katmai]

Damn fireblade beat me to asking if Tamas and his woman will have to choose  where to go to now.

[Fireblade]

Damn fireblade beat me to asking if Tamas and his woman will have to choose  where to go to now.

Don't gloat too much, Trump will deport you too #buildthewall #expelcucks

[Iormlund]

So does this mean you have to make room for all those pensioners getting booted out of Spain?

I don't see why they'd get kicked out.

They will take a massive economic hit, with a lower Pound (and thus pension) and having to purchase a private healthcare plan now (which for a pensioner could get really, really expensive).