Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Especially with the Labour vote being the key. 'We now bring you a message from the Mossack Finseca of Europe.'

Probably would be best if he kept quiet.

[Gups]

I find it very distasteful that Boris Johnson is gambling with the  long term future of the UK just because he can't wait 4 fucking years to get into the PM seat.

Have you ever read any of his Telegraph articles, for example, over the last ten years? He's been at the least on the fence about Europe if not leaning towards exit for that long if not longer.

Classifying his support/leadership of the exit campaign as being solely about his desire to be PM is biased thinking of the lowest quality.

Not to mention that even if leave wins he'll still be no more favourite to succeed Cameron than Osborne or May. Don't forget the Tory system is for the parliamentary party to submit two candidates to the general membership; Boris hardly has a solid following among Tory MPs.

I disagree. His support of the exit campaign is primarily a personal political calculation. The reason he was on the fence for so long is so he could keep his options open. I don't actually condemn him for that. He's a politician. That's what almost all politicians do and those who don't are usually the most dangerous. 

Can't see a way forward for Osborne if Leave wins. May will be one of the two for sure. Very hard to guess who will get the other berth. Boris is not just disliked but actually despised by a majority of Tory MPs but is loved by their constituents.

[Sheilbh]

Agree on May. I actually think Brexit strengthens her hand. If there's a potentially chaotic situation, who would you vote for her or Boris?

Only just occurred to me there's likely to be shy leavers

[Brazen]

This graphic is entirely more credible:

[PJL]

I said the same a week ago (and am still sticking to it).

[PJL]

Oh,and NCP is very credible. The person running the site (Matt Singh) was the only one that got anywhere near the correct election result before even the exit poll last year.

[PJL]

I'm also expect some last minute concessions to be hammered out over the weekend.  it. We're certainly no Greece with regards to negotiating leverage, and Germany does stand to lose a lot if we do leave.

[Tamas]

I'm also expect some last minute concessions to be hammered out over the weekend.  it. We're certainly no Greece with regards to negotiating leverage, and Germany does stand to lose a lot if we do leave.

Lets see:

If UK leaves, Germany risks losing 7% exports, and guaranteed to create the EU's financial market capital in Frankfurt

If the UK stays due to last minute desperate German concessions, Germany will be guaranteed to keep 7% exports, guaranteed to keep losing the EU financial market to the UK, and will be guaranteed to raise up the spirit of unrest and "give us this or we leave!" demands from a number of EU states.

I am sorry but it is not going to happen. Germany lives on Russian gas and exports shitton of stuff there yet they were willing to go for the embargos. They are NOT going to risk EU integrity to cater for arrogant British demands.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Germany gets to decide 

[Sheilbh]

He also started borrowing during the boom.

Psh details, both of you

BofE, Euro, Banking crisis, Scotland, the EU. He calls the big ones right.

Based on historical referenda Leave probably need at least a 10 point leave margin going into the final week to win as they are not the status quo option.

Yes. There is and there should be a drift to the status quo. But I do wonder about what I said earlier. There may be shy leavers, like there were shy Tories and shy unionists. Certainly in my London circles I don't know anyone who's voting leave (I'm the closest) for various reasons.

Plus who knows the polls in the general election were shit and I imagine a referendum is even more difficult to call and there's been huge differences depending on methodology....

By the bye my favourite articles lately. To leave:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/brexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/
To leave and join EFTA:
https://medium.com/@dizzy_thinks/we-must-remain-in-europe-thats-why-i-m-voting-leave-cdbd7c7d13a9#.jf0ghyrrs
Krugman's cautious case for remain - which I agree with most:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/notes-on-brexit/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0

Edit: Incidentally, another very good but stronger piece for remain:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/14/lets-not-sleepwalk-into-economic-and-geopolitical-catastrophe-wh/

[Richard Hakluyt]

Brown stopped us from joining the euro, that was his Churchill moment, no matter how multitudinous his failings he deserves our gratitude for that.

[Capetan Mihali]

So why does the working-class and poor overwhelmingly spport "Leave" in polling while the middle-class and upper-middle class overwhelmingly back "Remain" (again, at the polling stage)?

This is a genuine question coming from someone largely unfamiliar with British class voting trends...

[Zanza]

I'm also expect some last minute concessions to be hammered out over the weekend.  it. We're certainly no Greece with regards to negotiating leverage, and Germany does stand to lose a lot if we do leave.

What happens this weekend? Is there some kind of EU summit? The next Council meeting is the week after the referendum.
Germany is clearly in favor of Remain and officially said so. Merkel's most important minister has also publicly said that the EU must rethink its general course and that further integration even if Remain wins is not on the table as electorates across the union are very sceptical.

[Richard Hakluyt]

So why does the working-class and poor overwhelmingly spport "Leave" in polling while the middle-class and upper-middle class overwhelmingly back "Remain" (again, at the polling stage)?

This is a genuine question coming from someone largely unfamiliar with British class voting trends...

I think it is quite simple at root. EU membership benefits the one group and has negative effects on the other. The complaints of the lower half have been ignored for many years and now they will take their chance and make their protest.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it is quite simple at root. EU membership benefits the one group and has negative effects on the other. The complaints of the lower half have been ignored for many years and now they will take their chance and make their protest.

It seems a little contradictory to me to complain on the one hand that only educated professionals can take advantage of the open borders and on the other that too many uneducated working class types are taking advantage of the open borders to come to the UK.