Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

I don't think he really believes it, even Ken Clarke says he's a goner.

But a majority of MPs are remainers. As Bogdanor said if we vote to leave there's a new, third chamber: the people. And I've no idea what the consequences will be constitutionally. A majority of MPs implementing some forms of policy they profoundly disagree with....

Yeah I keep forgetting he worked in PR, so is unlikely to believe in anything he himself says.

[Richard Hakluyt]

No confidence vote then election.

Though there is that ridiculous fixed term legislation in place, no doubt they can toss that out but the delay will add to the crisis.

[Gups]

No confidence vote then election.

Is that the received wisdom (I'm so bored with the whole shebang that I'm not reading beyond the headlines)?

It seems a bit unlikely to me. A no confidence vote would be in relation to HM Government. I think it more likely that Cam resigns and there is a leadership election (my money is on Teresa). I've no idea why the Tories would want a new election barely a year after getting their first majority for 20 odd years.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Just a guess 

There is more heat than light in the various media commentaries, you are probably right not to bother with them.

[Tamas]

I find it very distasteful that Boris Johnson is gambling with the  long term future of the UK just because he can't wait 4 fucking years to get into the PM seat.

He will end up like the former Socialist PM of Hungary, Gyurcsany.

He orchestrated a palace coup against his boss the PM of the time, as a minister, thereby helping tank the party's popularity, two years before the elections. He was aware of how empty the coffers are but launched a big spending and tax cutting program to turn things around, which he did, and won the election. Only for the whole shitpile to collapse on him and his party eliminating both from the chance of ever ruling again, and cementing in what is now the Orban regime.

If he only waited a few years, Orban would had inherited the messed up budget and would had tanked his partys popularity trying to fix it, and Gyurcsany would had coasted into long term power. But no, his ambition was too burning to play for the long term.

I can totally see that in Boris as well.

[alfred russel]

I don't understand why Tories don't like Cameron. He seems like the most plausible (and successful) Conservative leader in a long long time. I guess some people can't handle success.

Though admittedly, if the Brexit vote wins, it is hard to see him positively.

[alfred russel]

I find it very distasteful that Boris Johnson is gambling with the  long term future of the UK just because he can't wait 4 fucking years to get into the PM seat.

Isn't it basically what Cameron did to get the PM seat (agreeing to hold the referendum)?

[Sheilbh]

He promised it but never expected to win a majority. My suspicion is that this was a policy he expected he could negotiate away to format a coalition - what a big concession from a Tory leader after all.

Similarly I think the deal he got was so crap because most EU leaders never expected Leave to have a real chance.

Incidentally apparently Juncker has promised to stay out of the referendum unless it's close in the final weeks because he doesn't want to be the Commission head who lost a country having said nothing. So we've got that to look forward to, I imagine the Leave campaign can't wait.

[Sheilbh]

I don't understand why Tories don't like Cameron. He seems like the most plausible (and successful) Conservative leader in a long long time. I guess some people can't handle success.

Though admittedly, if the Brexit vote wins, it is hard to see him positively.

Well yeah. Harold Wilson but worse isn't a great political epitaph.

But I agree. Some have always hated him and his modernising ways. There is a class element to it too I think. Also Corbyn has made them arrogant. Weak opposition always leads to worse government but the fact that Labour are so implausible means the Tories are really off the leash.

[Gups]

I find it very distasteful that Boris Johnson is gambling with the  long term future of the UK just because he can't wait 4 fucking years to get into the PM seat.

Isn't it basically what Cameron did to get the PM seat (agreeing to hold the referendum)?

No really. He'd been Tory leader for 8 years and PM for 3 before he said he would hold a referendum if the Tories won the 2015 election. I'm not sure he really had a choice, politically speaking.

[Martinus]

My favourite moment was when he launched Labour's election campaign while behind him there was an actual car crash.

[Brazen]

Results from YouGov poll, data hashed by god knows whom. I'm not saying it's selective, but my age group isn't even represented... I'd be interested in how they ascertained the "social classes" which I think are a pretty outmoded way of splitting society anyhow.

[Josquius]

Anybody else having mixed feelings of rage and despair at the sheer amount of conspiracy theories that the leave side is coming up with?
It's just insane. I dearly hope it's just the shouty corners of the Internet and not a reflection of what real people belive.

[Agelastus]

I find it very distasteful that Boris Johnson is gambling with the  long term future of the UK just because he can't wait 4 fucking years to get into the PM seat.

Have you ever read any of his Telegraph articles, for example, over the last ten years? He's been at the least on the fence about Europe if not leaning towards exit for that long if not longer.

Classifying his support/leadership of the exit campaign as being solely about his desire to be PM is biased thinking of the lowest quality.

Not to mention that even if leave wins he'll still be no more favourite to succeed Cameron than Osborne or May. Don't forget the Tory system is for the parliamentary party to submit two candidates to the general membership; Boris hardly has a solid following among Tory MPs.

[Agelastus]

He promised it but never expected to win a majority. My suspicion is that this was a policy he expected he could negotiate away to format a coalition - what a big concession from a Tory leader after all.

I disagree here; given the perceived threat of Tory voters leaving to support UKIP and the history of the referendum debate in the UK I don't think this would be a promise he could bargain away. Particularly with the example of the Lib-Dems and student fees from the 2010-15 Parliament.

Similarly I think the deal he got was so crap because most EU leaders never expected Leave to have a real chance.

This, however, I agree with 100%; I'd call it "typical Eurocrat arrogance" except for the fact that I, a staunch leaver, thought exactly the same thing.

The recent polls have surprised me; I still think leave will lose but it's going to be a very close run result.

Incidentally apparently Juncker has promised to stay out of the referendum unless it's close in the final weeks because he doesn't want to be the Commission head who lost a country having said nothing. So we've got that to look forward to, I imagine the Leave campaign can't wait.

While I agree he has to say something given his position he's probably in the worst position of any commission head for making such an intervention; as soon as he breaks his silecne Cameron's opposition to his election will be dragged out of the history files. A Commission President opposed by our own government telling us what to do - a gift for leave almost regardless of what he says.