Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Legbiter]

This is my new unified theory of British politics - everything from Brexit to UKIP to Tory re-elections/Johnsont etc - is ultimately the fault of Nick Clegg.

This crucial moment is the start of the butterfly effect. 

Perhaps Starmer should get sleeve tattoos and always, when out in public, be seen holding a pint in one hand and a Greggs steak bake in the other. Buy a white van while at it. Become the Norf FC meme incarnate.

[Sheilbh]

My favourite Miliband photo was the launch of the Ed Stone. That apparently no-one, in a process that involved a political party buying a monolith and instructing a stone-carver to chisel in their manifesto pledges, asked if it was a good idea

[Sheilbh]

No risk at all to Sadiq not winning but apparently the first round is far closer than expected and Shaun Bailey's done far better - running ahead of the party in the Assembly elections.

[Sheilbh]

Very tough to see an SNP route to an overall majority as they've failed to take Dumbarton or Eastwood which were top targets.

[Tamas]

Very tough to see an SNP route to an overall majority as they've failed to take Dumbarton or Eastwood which were top targets.

Good

[Sheilbh]

No risk at all to Sadiq not winning but apparently the first round is far closer than expected and Shaun Bailey's done far better - running ahead of the party in the Assembly elections.

So Bailey's won a couple of West London constituencies that Goldsmith didn't (on a swing of 3-4%). And overall based on the London constituencies reporting he is out-performing Goldsmith and Khan is doing worse.

His campaign needs to be re-evaluated because it was treated as a joke by political journalists nationally and in London.

Now Khan will still win on second votes - but they thought he could win in the first round and in the second round he'll possibly be under 55% (so in Johnson and Livingstone territory). It is an interesting contrast to the Tories giving up on London narrative and recent general election results.

This could be nonsense but I slightly wonder - just looking at the areas Bailey's won - if the Tories are starting to pick up a fairly big British Indian vote. There's been signs of this in previous elections and I think it's the minority community the Tories do best in. But in this case just thinking that Brent & Harrow and Ealing & Hillingdon both have pretty large British Asian communities, which are mainly British Indian

If that's true I think we need a bettter attack on the Tories than that they're racist - because, I think to the average voter, it won't look credible if they have pretty strong British Indian support, the highest number of non-white cabinet ministers (including 2 of the 4 great offices of state) and having both offered visas to several million Hong Kongers and just agreed an expanded immigration deal with India (mainly for Indian students). This may be another thing where the UK left could do with turning off Twitter/stop watching American politics.

Also it definitely looks like the Greens have become London's third party.

[Sheilbh]

Very tough to see an SNP route to an overall majority as they've failed to take Dumbarton or Eastwood which were top targets.

Good

Although they're still winning seats.

Labour are having a pretty decent night in Wales too and may be able to form an overall majority government (again in a PR system ). It seems like if you're the national government party and oversaw the pandemic and (more importantly) the vaccine roll-out then you're doing well.

I wouldn't be surprised if that holds in other countries to and wonder - as Germany is rolling out really well now - if the current polls are just a blip for the CDU

[Josquius]

In Northumberland they gave the council to the Tories by drawing lots

[Sheilbh]

So people had flagged that maybe the real Lib Dem fightback would start in Cornwall. Which went well


Edit:

Labour are having a pretty decent night in Wales too and may be able to form an overall majority government (again in a PR system ). It seems like if you're the national government party and oversaw the pandemic and (more importantly) the vaccine roll-out then you're doing well.

And on this - after 5 terms in office - Labour have had their best ever result in Wales and do have a working majority

[frunk]

So people had flagged that maybe the real Lib Dem fightback would start in Cornwall. Which went well

How could LD lose more seats than they have?

[Sheilbh]

The left is seats now. They had 29

[Sheilbh]

Very tough to see an SNP route to an overall majority as they've failed to take Dumbarton or Eastwood which were top targets.

Good

Although they will still form a government - with the Greens who are also committed to a new referendum. And, despite her previous comments, Sturgeon has said she will pass legislation for a second referendum - so it'll be up to the UK government to challenge it in the Supreme Court

Edit: On the other hand we'll see after the list votes but I do feel like they have a democratic mandate - and, as the SNP never tire of pointing out, the union (with Scotland) has never been based on force or legal convention but on the consent of all parties. So...

[Richard Hakluyt]

The UK government can set the terms of a future referendum though; like ensuring that Scots resident in England can vote in it. That would make it harder for the nationalists I suspect.

In parochial news I give you the Preston city council results; Labour unchanged, Tories up 2, Libdems down 2. Labour is maintaining its grip on this town unlike other places. They would be well-advised to study why. My initial theories would centre around the "Preston model" of encouraging local procurement and businesses; and the influence of a large university in a not very large city (120k in the city itself; although the greater urban area is 350k).

[Josquius]

Needs noting there that Hartlepool is a follower of the preston system.
Given how little people tend to know of local government I suspect this may not be much of a factor.
It could even be a negative - in my hometown Facebook groups you see the nutters whinging about how the council uses the same local companies for printing rather than tendering et al. Obviously they're the sort who would whinge at anything. Still I wonder.

[celedhring]

The UK government can set the terms of a future referendum though; like ensuring that Scots resident in England can vote in it. That would make it harder for the nationalists I suspect.

I've always been of the opinion that if somehow we were to have a legal indyref here the Spanish gov should go "fine, if Spain can be divided, so can Catalonia, so the parts that vote "no" get to stay".