Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

The daily mail has been very critical of Johnson. The right-wing evil MSM stole my voters is a pathetic excuse. Waiting for demographic destiny is a fool's errand as well, many of our immigrant groups are more conservative than the native population, as they integrate they will be more comfortable voting tory.

I've always wondered the extent the media shape opinions and the extent people just buy the media that reflects their opinions back at them. Obviously the pandemic is unique but I think it is striking that the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express have all run pretty strong anti-lockdown campaigns with no discernible effect on public opinion. Similarly the multiple anti-lockdown parties (even Farage was feinting in that direction).

The other point with minority votiers is that there's still evidence in the polling that Enoch Powell and the "Rivers of Blood" speech shape perceptions of the Tories. I think that is goind to reduce over time and - I think what you say also applies for young people.

My advice to Labour is to find out what you are for and design and place a credible range of policies in front of the electorate that will improve the country. It looks like Starmer is going to flail around and blame the Corbynites, the sacking of Rayner is pathetic and stokes Labour party navel-gazing. Labour didn't win and they didn't deserve to win even though Johnson is a bounder.

Yep. I think credible is the key point there - people like a lot of the policies in Corbyn's 2019 manifesto but, according to focus groups at least, they didn't trust him and they didn't think all of those policies together were credible. It's why I'm always slightly suspicious of people on the left pointing out how a policy is popular on its own. It's a bit like in the 2000s when Tory policies were popular in the abstract but unpopular when people were told they were Tory policies

Also this does worry me a little about Starmer's temperament that he's panicked at something like this. There's some good results for Labour. They've done badly compared to 2016, but basically held their own from 2017 and are 6 points behind the government (from 12 points in the general election). It feels like there is an argument that Labour had a bad night but they've made progress. And the government is successfully rolling out the vaccine program. They have an 85% approval rating on that issue, which is one of the most important right now. That's a very tough environment to make big gains.

Yeah at what point is Labour no longer viable as an opposition? They marched leftward with Corbyn and now have marched rightward with Starmer only to see their hold on power decline.

The Greens doubled their council presence and increased their vote everywhere. I wonder if they'll do something similar to the Lib Dems in the 90s and clearly become the third party of local government with a number of Green councils, then possibly a breakthrough in Parliament?

I'm also not sure they've moved that rightward under Starmer? I get that opposition is difficult during a pandemic, but all I can think that he's done has either been internal politics (some good like on anti-semitism) or just purely symbolic (trying to appear comfortable with a UK flag). I don't think opposition should spend announce loads of policies but they should at least give some sort of where they want to go and I don't think Starmer's done that.

The Republicans of course are not on board with climate change legislation and raising corporate taxes. But put that aside, and the rest applies to Republicans as well. I'm not sure they are getting 1/3 of the minority vote, but for whatever reason Trump got a big swing in the minority vote in his favor. In terms of the relationship with corporate america, there has been a massive shift in the last few years: while republicans haven't moved off being against all taxes, they certainly aren't the pro corporate party they used to be. Especially tech companies probably have something to fear from the party right now.

That's true. I don't totally agree with this by Will Hutton but I think it's broadly a good piece of the challenge for Labour just attacking the "same old Tories" of Thatcher, Cameron, May - they're not the same any more. I think Johnson as a "Brexity Hezza" is a real threat - I also think it's why Johnson will at some point get in a big fight with his party and burn through Chancellors because I think traditional Tories will want some fiscal restraint and Johnson will always choose economic growth over cuts:

Houchenism – the brand of can-do Tory threatening the left and right old guard
Will Hutton
With a 73% majority and a string of interventionist initiatives, Tees Valley mayor, Ben Houchen, is reinventing Conservatism
Sat 8 May 2021 21.00 BST

After Thatcherism and Corbynism, welcome to Houchenism, the doctrine of Tees Valley mayor, Ben Houchen, and endorsed by a whopping 73% of Teesside voters. This 34-year-old northern loyalist is the Tory party's contemporary version of Michael Heseltine, the lone standard bearer at Thatcher's zenith of a willingness to intervene "at breakfast, lunch and supper". Houchen is today's Tory carrying the Heseltine torch, intervening to reinvent Teesside with the massive backing of his electorate. And a generation later, this Heseltine de nos jours has the backing, not the loathing, of the prime minister. It will not have escaped Boris Johnson's notice, a self-described Brexity Hezza, that Houchen's intervention is working big time, economically and politically.

This do-it-if-it-works local Tory politician is reinventing the Conservative party as it attempts to deliver on its promise to level up. The string of initiatives Houchen has launched encompasses the ideological spectrum. Nationalisation? If that is the only way to keep and expand Teesside International Airport, of course, even if details of the public financing remain opaque. A free port for Teesside as a deregulatory free-for-all? Of course, if that means jobs and inward investment for his area.

A green new deal? He is on it, proclaiming that a green industrial revolution is the avenue to hi-tech, well-paid, 21st-century jobs. Thus he has instigated the Net Zero Industry Innovation Centre, attracting the establishment of the National Hydrogen Transport Centre in partnership with Teesside University with the aim of making Teesside the UK's hydrogen manufacturing hub. Wind farms? He is on them too, creating the Teesworks Offshore Manufacturing Centre, in which GE Renewable Energy has just announced it will create a plant to build state-of-the-art wind turbine blades. What Houchen is doing is a textbook example of a "super-cluster", turning Teesside into a self-reinforcing virtuous circle of complementary industries in a public-private partnership, supported by the local university and FE colleges.

OK, he has been backed to the hilt by Johnson, who insisted that his free-market-inclined chancellor and business secretary get with the programme, abandon their throwback, dead-end Thatcherism and write the cheques that make it all possible. There was general bafflement when Rishi Sunak announced that 750 Treasury jobs were going to Darlington and not the obvious centre in the north, Leeds. That missed the point. Darlington is part of Teesside and Houchen was being obliged.

Teesside voters, and that includes Hartlepool, have noticed. They like what they see. It has imagination, verve and a vision. Of course they backed it on Thursday. Yes, it is true that the Blair government established One North East – one of the more dynamic regional development agencies that, for example, laid the foundations of the North East Technology Park (NETPark) in Durham, where a space innovation centre is to be based – and which the coalition government criminally abolished in 2010. But Blair as a Sedgefield MP and Peter Mandelson as a Hartlepool MP abjured the kind of aggressive activism of Houchen, only becoming converts at the last. For as Teesside voters note, unlike them, Houchen was born locally, took his law degree at Northumbria University and cares passionately for where he lives and works.

Equally, Labour's left, which has been urging Starmer and his shadow cabinet to adopt a leftwing vision to recapture Labour's red wall, embrace Brexit and fight the same old Tories with good, old-fashioned socialism, should take note. Whatever else, Ben Houchen is not a same old Tory, nor is any variant of socialism likely to appeal to Teesside voters who are watching a different alchemy deliver both a vision for the future and jobs alike. Houchenism is a threat to Thatcherites, Blairites and Corbynites alike. It could even win 73% of the vote across Britain.

Will Hutton is an Observer columnist

Edit: And in other Labour news the woman who was secually harassed by the former Hartlepool MP has come forward and said that the party ignored her complaints and showed no interest in her wellbeing.

[alfred russel]

As I keep saying this is a commom problem for the left in developed countries because ina historic sense they have won. The economic policies they fought for when they have been formed have been adopted by all sides, in Europe at least and only their extent is up for debate.

I don't think that this is true--at least if we are talking about the Labour Party (and I think this is generally true across Europe). The party was formed around the turn of the 20th century out of trade unionist and socialist groups to represent the working class. Trade unionism has been getting annihilated in the UK. Whatever the ultimate socialist dream was in the early 20th century, I don't think this is it.

Most of the incremental goals campaigned for in the early 20th century have been achieved, I concede that. Technology and a move away from blowing each other up in stupid wars have raised the standard of living so that we've been able to pay for the programs the working classes wanted a century ago while not really changing the ultimate structure of society. They won a few battles but ultimately lost the war. Badly.

[Sheilbh]

Rumours now that the re-shuffle is off and Rayner might be re-appointed as Chair

As Stephen Bush has pointed out it's really weird to go after the Deputy Leader in this way because they're directly elected by members and under the Labour Party rule book they have to have a role. Everyone talks about learning from 1997 - but as Alastair Campbell's diaries make clear Blair spent a huge amount of time keeping John Prescott on side, because otherwise (as demonstrated by Tom Watson during Corbyn's leadership) the Deputy Leadership tends to be a focus of dissent and instability.

Edit: Also the declaration schedule hears to be harming Labour here - their latest results are looking far better from what's being declared today, which just heightens the sense that Starmer possibly panicked a little early. Also the Greens are doing really well - already doubled their councillors and Bristol's only just started declaring

Edit: E.g. and on squint and you can see the shape of a Tory collapse, Labour have won the council seat that David Cameron lives in

Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Chipping Norton (Oxfordshire) council result:

Lab: 42.6% (+8.5)
Con: 40.9% (-4.3)
Grn: 10.9% (+8.2)
LDem: 5.6% (-10.6)

Lab GAIN from Con

[Agelastus]

Edit: E.g. and on squint and you can see the shape of a Tory collapse, Labour have won the council seat that David Cameron lives in

Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Chipping Norton (Oxfordshire) council result:

Lab: 42.6% (+8.5)
Con: 40.9% (-4.3)
Grn: 10.9% (+8.2)
LDem: 5.6% (-10.6)

Lab GAIN from Con

How much is re-alignment and how much is local issues? I feel there may be a danger of reading too much into results like this at the first set of Council Elections post-EU exit.

My new, much unwanted, North Northants District Council has 78 seats. The Tories won 60 of them, Labour 14*, Green 3 and Independent 1.

The Green Councillors all come from the same Ward, Clover Hill of Kettering, where they swept the board; Clover Hill has the signature issue of a local wood being under threat (part of it, anyway) by a proposed Business expansion.

Will they still hold that Ward when that issue goes away? I would imagine now they've got in once at least one councillor will survive, but I strongly doubt all 3 will unless they all impress over the next few years.


*12 from Corby - showing exactly why a previous Tory MP wanted the constituency name changed as he was being elected by everyone who lived outside of Corby in the constituency!

[Tonitrus]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57047642

Wendy's: Burger giant plans return to the UK after 20 years

America's second largest burger chain is returning to the UK after 20 years with a promise to steal market share from rivals McDonald's and Burger King.

Wendy's, famous for square burgers, plans up to 400 outlets nationwide creating at least 12,000 jobs, although that could take many years, it said.

[garbon]

[Richard Hakluyt]

They had a branch somewhere in the Charing Cross Road area back in the day; I ate there, they were neither good nor bad.

[celedhring]

They had one in Barcelona when I was little. I remember liking it but not much else.

[Sheilbh]

They had a branch somewhere in the Charing Cross Road area back in the day; I ate there, they were neither good nor bad.

I will be outraged if Johnson's new embrace of state aid and "levelling up" doesn't include subsidies to Wimpy to fight off this new American threat

Theory: Johnsonian Brexit is Anglo-Gaullism?

How much is re-alignment and how much is local issues? I feel there may be a danger of reading too much into results like this at the first set of Council Elections post-EU exit.

Yeah I think there's definitely local factors - most prominently in Sheffield where Labour deserved to be decimated for the way they cut down the city's trees, but also in Sunderland with the former council leader potentially being a murderer and another councillor getting convicted of paedophilia.

But I think it is likely that a significant amount is re-alignment. Mainly because it matches what's happening in other European countries - there are similar trends throughout Europe (and I think it's one of the ironie of Brexit that it was actually the Europeanisation of our politics that led to Brexit). But also something similar has happened in Scotland where after the indyref, the constitutional question became the constitutional question. I think it sort of unleashed voters to change - and I think something similar has happened with the Brexit vote.

My view is that in Europe we're in as profound a re-alignment as the South moving from Democrat to Republican in the 60s was in America. I think the Tories have basically embraced that and leaned into it, Labour, as ever, are fundamentally quite sentimental and nostalgic so are fighting it.

The Green Councillors all come from the same Ward, Clover Hill of Kettering, where they swept the board; Clover Hill has the signature issue of a local wood being under threat (part of it, anyway) by a proposed Business expansion.

Will they still hold that Ward when that issue goes away? I would imagine now they've got in once at least one councillor will survive, but I strongly doubt all 3 will unless they all impress over the next few years.

Maybe - but if I was the Greens I'd be looking at the Lib Dem strategy in the 90s and the SNP in the 2000s. So make sure you're electing good councillors who'll turn up to everything and never stop campaigning, do year round canvassing and really try and build a presence as a good local government party. I think the Lib Dems have lost a little bit of that record and if I was the Greens I'd be aiming to replace the Lib Dems as the third party of local government in the next few years.

And like the Lib Dems I'd pitch differently in different areas. In Labour areas I'd sell the Greens as a good left-wing alternative that's taking climate seriously and isn't the Tories; in Lib Dem/Tory areas I'd pitch myself as conservationist and anti-development plus an engaged local party.

I think there's a lot of potential for growth for the Greens - and the areas they're winning in are quite diverse, again it reminds me of the Lib Dems - I think they're doing very well in Bristol as you'd expect but I think also expecting good results in Shropshire and Hampshire.

[Tamas]

Johnsonian Brexit is "Cameron is PM but I want to be PM. Cameron is for Remain so I'll be for Leave. Oh shit, we actually won".

And yes I know he was criticising the EU with articles full of fake articles and lies way back when. That is irrelevant. Doing that was the only way to make a name for himself with that boring-ass job.

[Admiral Yi]

Man the rhetoric on Starmer sure changed quickly.

[Sheilbh]

And yes I know he was criticising the EU with articles full of fake articles and lies way back when. That is irrelevant. Doing that was the only way to make a name for himself with that boring-ass job.

I don't quite follow this bit?

Unrelatedly there's a dissertation to be written on the role of the pub in British politics. Power seems to have shifted a fair bit to Rayner - apparently she's demanding that Starmer make changes to his office (i.e. replace some of his advisors). She was meant to be on the political shows today but obviously cancelled those appearances and has instead informed journalists that she's in the pub

[Sheilbh]

Man the rhetoric on Starmer sure changed quickly.

I've never been a fan - he was my second choice. But I'm surprised at how badly he's managed this politically. Plus British politics tends to basically be stalled and immobile with no real changes, or febrile

No-one's talking about leadership challenges now but they are saying this has increased the risk he'll be challenged in the next few months (possibly if there's a disappointing result in Batley and Spen). Apparently the re-shuffle is now starting.

Also - as ever in British politics  - there's a class angle, and if this bit from the Guardian is true it's going to be personal between Rayner and Starmer now (and I'd bet on her - I think it was a huge shame she didn't run for leader because the left chose Rebecca Long-Bailey because she was perceived as more "loyal" to Corbynism):

Rayner's allies complained she had been frozen out of key decisions by Starmer's aides despite her role as campaign co-ordinator, and that some in his camp had spoken about her in less-than-flattering terms.

The Guardian was told that on one occasion Jim McMahon, the Oldham MP who ran the Hartlepool byelection campaign, told a meeting with the leader's office that Rayner had been "dressed inappropriately" on a visit to the town on 21 March.

McMahon's allies strongly denied he had been disparaging about Rayner, whose constituency borders his own in Greater Manchester, and said he was simply expressing displeasure about pictures that had been selected for a leaflet.

The photographs showed Rayner wearing leopard-print trousers, heavy-duty stomper boots and a hoodie during a visit to Hartlepool on a Sunday, when she had travelled there from her home in Tameside.

Rayner's team "hit the roof" when they heard about the remark, sources said, but chose not to tell the deputy leader for fear of worsening relations in the middle of a difficult byelection campaign.


The outfit Angela Rayner wore on her 21 March visit to Hartlepool. Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

An aide to McMahon said: "Angela is a significant asset to the party and someone Jim supports and respects. Any suggestion otherwise is wrong. He takes a dim view of people trying to create division in the aftermath of what has been a difficult election."

The episode cuts to the heart of why some believe Rayner was the first to be demoted by Starmer after Labour's election performance, triggering a backlash. The pair are not only from different wings of the party, but from very different backgrounds.

Rayner, the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne, has spoken powerfully about leaving school at 16 when she was pregnant with her first child and later qualifying as a care worker after college. She climbed the ranks at Unison in the north-west of England after being a union rep for care workers in Stockport.

She became an MP in 2015 and was promoted to shadow education secretary under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership a year later, a post she held until Starmer became leader in April 2020.

There is a feeling among Rayner's allies that she is seen by some at the top of the party as a "working-class oik and a bit thick" who doesn't fit their "patronising Camden style". Another Labour source, who has no loyalties to Rayner, said: "It's a clear mistake to fire someone who speaks like the people we need to talk to. It's a huge mistake from a bunch of snobs who don't like how she speaks."

Edit: In a sign of why this may have gone so badly - the two people you normally want on side and helping with a re-shuffle are the Deputy and the Chief Whip. Starmer's firing them both - although I love this statement from Nick Brown (an MP who's had one hell of a journey): "Nick thinks it's a reasonable time for Nick to move on. He and Keir have parted on good terms, with mutual respect. He wishes Keir and the new Chief Whip ever success."

[Legbiter]

There is a feeling among Rayner's allies that she is seen by some at the top of the party as a "working-class oik and a bit thick" who doesn't fit their "patronising Camden style". Another Labour source, who has no loyalties to Rayner, said: "It's a clear mistake to fire someone who speaks like the people we need to talk to. It's a huge mistake from a bunch of snobs who don't like how she speaks."

[The Brain]

Ngl, she looks kinda good in those boots.