Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

The UK government can set the terms of a future referendum though; like ensuring that Scots resident in England can vote in it. That would make it harder for the nationalists I suspect.

I've always been of the opinion that if somehow we were to have a legal indyref here the Spanish gov should go "fine, if Spain can be divided, so can Catalonia, so the parts that vote "no" get to stay".

I'd hope that would be two stage.
I'd imagine plenty who want to remain in Spain but would rather stick with catalonia either way.
And the potential for a checkerboard map... Is intruiging.

[celedhring]

When they did the UDI one of the northwestern regions of Catalonia (Vall d'Aran) already demanded to stay in Spain. It had no further implications because the UDI fortunately was a joke, but it highlights how divisive this whole shit is.

What I mean is who gets to decide where the whole self-determination thing stops. At one point it seems the whole thing is high-stakes gerrymandering.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So people had flagged that maybe the real Lib Dem fightback would start in Cornwall. Which went well

maybe it's a feint?

[Agelastus]

In Northumberland they gave the council to the Tories by drawing lots

And today (although not for control of a council, admittedly) the Labour and Tory candidates did a coin toss that the Tory lost. (Rockingham Ward, Barnsley, South Yorkshire.)

Luck evens out.

[The Larch]

More in depth article about EU nationals without proper paperwork being detained upon arrival to the UK, mentioning the case I brought up the other day:

EU citizens detained by UK after landing without work visas
POLITICO has heard of 30 cases involving German, Greek, Italian, Romanian and Spanish nationals.

LONDON — EU citizens are being detained and held in immigration removal centers after trying to enter the U.K. for work without visas or residence status, in a further blow to post-Brexit relations between Britain and the Continent.

EU diplomats have expressed concern about the transfer of the bloc's nationals to immigration removal centers, where they are being held for up to seven days in some cases before being returned to their home countries. This mirrors the treatment nationals from non-EU countries in the same situation have long faced.

The Home Office has not yet released official data on the number of EU nationals held at these centers since the start of the year. But POLITICO has heard of 30 cases involving German, Greek, Italian, Romanian and Spanish nationals.

European embassies in London are offering legal advice and intervening to try to shorten the period of detention, although not all EU citizens are seeking consular support.

Diplomats said most cases concern young people, many of whom try to enter the U.K. to work as au pairs or to find low-skilled jobs for short periods of time — a practice that was common when Britain was subject to the EU's freedom-of-movement rules.

The length of their detentions is partly explained by travel restrictions imposed because of the coronavirus pandemic, which mean there are fewer flights available to return EU nationals and the Home Office must also arrange the COVID-19 test required before their return.

However, one diplomat said some European governments find the length of some detentions "disproportionate" and would like the EU to take a tougher stance with the British administration.

Post Brexit, EU nationals are prevented from entering the U.K. for work purposes without either a work visa or EU Settlement Scheme status, which guarantees the residence rights of those who were living in Britain before it left the EU.

EU nationals can enter Britain visa-free for tourism and stay for up to 90 days. However, the U.K. Border Force is entitled to reject entry to EU nationals if officials have reasonable grounds to suspect they intend to work in the country but can't produce the necessary documentation.

'I couldn't take it anymore'

At the time of publication, a 25-year-old Spanish national was being held at the Yarl's Wood Immigration Removal Centre in Bedfordshire, a two-hour drive from London Gatwick Airport, where she landed from Valencia on May 3. She traveled with the aim of finding a job in the U.K., where she had already worked in 2019 before returning home to pursue other opportunities.

The center, with capacity for 400 detainees, was repurposed to house Channel migrants last year, according to the BBC. The woman, who does not have access to her mobile phone, was told to wait for an interview with Home Office caseworkers, which should take place in the following 72 hours. Her sister and a friend were allowed to visit her Wednesday evening but an outbreak of coronavirus has meant her and all the other detainees in that wing of the center are in self-isolation.

The woman is now expected to stay in the center for at least 10 more days without visits. "She is fine but says the conditions are not so great, she's cold and does not have access to part of her belongings or any electronic device. She calls her sister sometimes from a phone at the center," a friend said.

Other EU nationals arriving into Gatwick on the same day were held in detention at the airport, including a Spanish man from the Canary Islands who had told the U.K. Border Force he was coming for a job interview the following day.

One of the higher-profile cases concerns Sotiris Konstantakos, a 26-year-old Greek man detained for seven days at the Kolnbrook Immigration Detention Centre outside London Heathrow Airport in January.

"I didn't know when I would leave. I was desperate. I couldn't take it anymore. I was locked in a room which had no heating and had bars on the window from 9 p.m. to 8 a.m. and again at noon for an hour. The rest of the time I was in a larger area with other detainees. They had taken my cellphone and my belongings," he told the Greek newspaper Ta Nea.

A second diplomat from an embassy that has dealt with about 20 cases since the end of the Brexit transition said their country would not transfer British nationals in that situation to immigration removal centers, saying such people would be kept at the airport until they could take a flight back. U.K. embassies and consulates in the EU "apparently don't give much info to EU citizens prior to their departure," they added.

But a third diplomat from an EU country that processes large amounts of illegal migrants every year disagreed. "There have been plenty of information campaigns. These people have broken the rules," they said.

A Home Office spokesperson said the department does not routinely comment on individual cases. EU citizens in the U.K. by December 2020 are encouraged to apply for residence status under the government's EU Settlement Scheme by June 30, they said, adding these people are "our friends and neighbours and we want them to remain."

"For those who were not resident before this date, as the public expects, we require evidence of an individual's right to live and work in the U.K.," they said.

'Grossly disproportionate'

Taking back control over immigration was one of Boris Johnson's big Brexit promises. The EU envisioned a big mobility chapter in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement signed with the U.K. on Christmas Eve, but mobility provisions were watered down substantially at the request of the U.K. As a result, myriad mobility topics fell outside the scope of the deal.

That is preventing the European Commission from raising these cases at the committees overseeing the EU-U.K. post-Brexit relationship. So far, diplomats from individual EU countries are dealing with cases involving their nationals bilaterally and raising them with the U.K.'s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

In the case of Konstantakos, the intervention of the Greek ambassador in London, Ioannis Raptakis, was key to resolving his situation. Konstantakos was exempted from the obligation to submit a negative COVID-19 test in order to speed up his return to Greece.

Dimitrios Giannoulopoulos, head of the law department at Goldsmiths, University of London, said immigration detention in cases like this is "grossly disproportionate and should be avoided at all costs."

The EU Delegation to the U.K. and the EU institutions should make sure that its citizens arriving in the U.K. after Brexit "are protected from the excesses we're unfortunately already witnessing," Giannoulopoulos added.

Instead of using immigration removal centers, the Home Office should feel satisfied with EU nationals concerned informing the authorities of the address where they will be temporarily staying, until their return can be arranged, he said.

"The application of excessive immigration detention to EU citizens arriving in the U.K., innocently thinking they might be able to search for work when they are here or making similarly reckless mistakes about their right to stay or work in the country, is a reminder of the harsh new realities that EU citizens will face in the U.K. after Brexit, including the traumatic experience of immigration detention without time limits, that the U.K. Border Force unexceptionally applies to third-country citizens," he said.

[Legbiter]

Enjoyed this article on Boris immensely for the long historical view.

What would Boris Johnson have to do, I wonder, for his critics to take him seriously? For weeks he's been battered by dreadful headlines, culminating in the Mail's revelations of his alleged use of donations to pay for the redecoration of his Downing Street flat.

Day after day, his critics hammered away at the issue of so-called sleaze.

Then came Thursday, the largest round of local elections since 1973. And the result could hardly have been clearer: another thumping victory for Teflon Boris. Whatever you think of him, Mr Johnson's record speaks for itself. He just keeps on winning.

Originally dismissed as a joke candidate, he was twice elected as a Conservative Mayor of supposedly Left-wing London.

Then, as the front man of the Leave campaign, he became the face of the greatest political shock of my lifetime, overturning the conventional wisdom to take us out of the European Union.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9555369/DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-cracks-code-Boris-Johnsons-effortless-appeal.html

But is there any truth in that Palmerston died at the age of 80 while deflowering a parlour maid on a billiard table? 

[Sheilbh]

EU diplomats have expressed concern about the transfer of the bloc's nationals to immigration removal centers, where they are being held for up to seven days in some cases before being returned to their home countries. This mirrors the treatment nationals from non-EU countries in the same situation have long faced.

This is the key point for me. I would have more of an issue if it turned out that people from Nigeria or India who'd broken immigration rules were being treated differently and more harshly than people from the EU.

I basically agree with the third diplomat. The idea that people would check in with the UK Embassies or Consulates before they travel is crazy - and I think at a certain point people should be responsible for checking if they can legally go and work in the UK or not before getting on a flight. Or they should lie at the border.

The UK government can set the terms of a future referendum though; like ensuring that Scots resident in England can vote in it. That would make it harder for the nationalists I suspect.

We shouldn't be trying to game the rules so the nationalists lose. I think the terms and question, if there is a referendum, should basically be the same as 2014. The only change I think would make sense is whether the franchise should match that of Scottish election (so include 16 and 17 year olds and assylum seekers etc).

Practically I just don't think it's possible because we don't have "Scottish" citizenship or status on anything.

[Sheilbh]

I've always been of the opinion that if somehow we were to have a legal indyref here the Spanish gov should go "fine, if Spain can be divided, so can Catalonia, so the parts that vote "no" get to stay".

I am very fond of the movement in Orkney and Shetland (and it used to be in Caithness too) for reunification with Norway

Edit: Absolutely loving Huw Edwards explanation of the cultural and political differences between Plaid Cymru and the SNP - and why there's not been a Plaid breakthrough.

[Josquius]

I dunno, I'm torn on that.
On the one hand, sure, fair is fair, treat everyone equally. Don't be extra harsh on those from developing countries.
But....
1: sending someone back to Nigeria is a far more complicated, messy, and expensive affair. The cost of them having spent £500 to come here vs £20 for Europeans should be considered.
Hell, if people say they're willing to pay for the next flight back no matter where they're from then that should be allowed rather than wasting resources keeping them prisoner for 10 days.
2: there is genuine reason to be far more skeptical of someone coming from a much poorer country to work illegally than someone from a country where people earn about the same, or more than, an illegal sub minimum wage job in the UK.
3: EU countries aren't just other countries. We have visa free travel still. We were just part of a union together and that hasn't fully unravelled yet.

[Sheilbh]

Not as strong as Tees Valley - but Tories win first round of West Midlands Metro Mayor with 49% so it goes to the second round with the Tories will win. That's an increase of 7% of last time and, as I say, I think Labour need to be as worried about the West Midlands because it's full of swing seats and the Tories are consolidating a lot of victories there.

Also looking at the London results - I actually think Rory Stewart might have won here

[Sheilbh]

2: there is genuine reason to be far more skeptical of someone coming from a much poorer country to work illegally than someone from a country where people earn about the same, or more than, an illegal sub minimum wage job in the UK.

But these are people who have admitted that they are coming for work without a visa. I think once that happens they're sort of in the system and my view is it should apply in the same way to everyone.

I think what you're saying is probably already factored in who the border officers question. I imagine travellers from Nigeria and Brazil and India get questioned far more than travellers from Europe and the US. But I think if you're caught the system should be equal.

[The Brain]

I don't have a problem with EU citizens getting the normal treatment. If you go to a country and plan to work there it makes sense to check stuff before you go.

[Sheilbh]

In parochial news I give you the Preston city council results; Labour unchanged, Tories up 2, Libdems down 2. Labour is maintaining its grip on this town unlike other places. They would be well-advised to study why. My initial theories would centre around the "Preston model" of encouraging local procurement and businesses; and the influence of a large university in a not very large city (120k in the city itself; although the greater urban area is 350k).

All of Labour councillors in Lisa Nandy's Wigan also kept their seats (which is all of the seats)

Separately - we're not near there yet - but you don't need to squint very hard to see the shape of a Tory collapse here. Labour have just won their first ever seat in Worthing, the Tories have lost the councils of Royal Tunbridge Wells, Canterbury and the Isle of Wight (to NOC), they've lost a fair number of councillors in Surrey and West Sussex. The impact of university graduate, liberal Londoners moving to commuter towns is definitely there - and if you assume nothing else changes there will be more of them than ex-industrial workers in the long run.

But my feeling is we're still in transition and the electoral map is shifting quite profoundly. Historically, since the Great Reform Act there's a very broad pattern of Tories holding the heartlands around London - Kent, East Anglia, Oxfordshire, Wiltshire, the Home Counties. The Liberals and then Labour do better in the more non-conformist North of England, plus the Celtic fringe and they both fight over the Midlands. I think that shape of politics which has been pretty consistent for almost 200 years is in flux.

Edit: Andy Burnham wins re-election with 67% of the vote

[Josquius]

Country in transition - yes.
Albeit differently to the already in progress transition of brexit with the big corona remote working shakeup.
If Hartlepool cleans up its beach and gets better rail service....

2: there is genuine reason to be far more skeptical of someone coming from a much poorer country to work illegally than someone from a country where people earn about the same, or more than, an illegal sub minimum wage job in the UK.

But these are people who have admitted that they are coming for work without a visa. I think once that happens they're sort of in the system and my view is it should apply in the same way to everyone.

I think what you're saying is probably already factored in who the border officers question. I imagine travellers from Nigeria and Brazil and India get questioned far more than travellers from Europe and the US. But I think if you're caught the system should be equal.

Have they though?
I've not seen any evidence they've done this. That seems it would be a pretty dumb thing to do so I'm skeptical.
It's perfectly legal to look for and apply for jobs when you don't have a working visa, it's only working which you can't do. And when you're just from spain or the like it's perfectly easy to pop over for a week or two to find a job then go home to get your things, sort out the paperwork and move over.

[Sheilbh]

Have they though?
I've not seen any evidence they've done this. That seems it would be a pretty dumb thing to do so I'm skeptical.

I think both of Larch's articles have had the person telling this to the border guard - my guess is in response to a question like "what's the purpose of your visit?"/"why are you coming to the UK?" And they've responded honestly. I suppose it's dumb but the vast majority of people may barely any attention to politics and I think they probably just didn't realise that things had changed or when things changed.

I don't think there's much more governments could have done to make it clear that Brexit is a thing. I think people should probably check before they go to a country outside the EU. But I also think we're just going to get a few stories like this for the first year or two while people adjust and the information sort of travels through to people who pay 0 attention to politics.

It's perfectly legal to look for and apply for jobs when you don't have a working visa, it's only working which you can't do. And when you're just from spain or the like it's perfectly easy to pop over for a week or two to find a job then go home to get your things, sort out the paperwork and move over.

I don't think that's right I thought it was illegal to come to the UK as a tourist for the purpose of looking for work (like the guy in Larch's article) so if you have loads of copies of your CV that will get questions from border guards.