Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

It begins:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51240785

Article 13: UK will not implement EU copyright law

Also on my bus home today and people had tied EU flags to the bars. Argualy the only positive of recent events - I am looking forward to the end/withering of the FBPE tendency

Edit: Also I am fascinated by the Irish election and what it'll mean. I could be totally wrong, but I feel like an underrated - and really interesting question - is how it'll efect Northern Irish politics. As I say, I could be wrong - but it feels like a Fianna Fail victory could go in a different direction to another Fine Gael government  

[Josquius]

I've had to Google what fbpe is. News to me.

I've noticed more British flags around lately than in the past. It makes me sad. It was always a great thing about the UK that we were not so vulgar.

[Hamilcar]

Ah brexiters....

We need to start asking these people for proof that they have enough funds to cover their trips and actually plan to return at the end. You know, like people from poor countries.

[mongers]

If the coronavirius outbreak reaches us, the UK government is prepared to have Chris Grayling lead the response. 

[The Minsky Moment]

The UK still seems to be living in fantasy land about Brexit despite clear warnings, e.g.:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/27/brexit-eu-will-have-upper-hand-in-trade-talks-says-leo-varadkar

Johnson's decisive victory doesn't change the fundamental reality that UK expectations about what can be achieved are divorced from reality.  However wonderful a political slogan "Get Brexit Done" may be, saying those words doesn't get to a result any more than "take back control" resulted in any control being taken back.

There is going to be a huge crash because the new government is setting expectations of a free trade, no tariff deal while also saying there will be regulatory divergence.  There is no indication that the EU will ever agree to this or that UK has anything close to the leverage needed to get such a deal.

It's also worth remembering that the interim "deal" did nothing to solve the NIreland dilemma other than kick it down the road.  There will be one of: (1) hard border in Ireland, (2) hard order in Irish Sea, (3) UK adhering to EU regulatory rules.  The new government is not facing up to this and won't until it is crisis time.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Why should they care, they have 5 years in power and can deal with it after they've gotten to implement other policies they care more about.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. That could all be right, but I'm not sure and I think it would be more right under May's leadership.

But my view of what's going on is that I think the election shows how little many Brexiteers care about what "Brexit" is. The government will declare Brexit done on 31 January and we're then negotiating a new relationship with Europe - at the same, no doubt, as launching talks with Australia, the US etc. That will probably be enough - outside of the more obsessive bits of Remain support, no-one really wants for this to keep dominating our politics. So it'll be an issue for sure, but I think it will probably be "done" on 31 January. The SNP will want to re-join, maybe the Lib Dems will - but I can't see it carrying on being this all-encompassing, oxygen-denying subject across all politics.

Similarly in terms of "taking back control", I don't know how much people care. I think once we get a government setting out their immigration policy that'll be it for taking back control. From a Brexit perspective that's mission accomplished. It's why I'm still unsure if Johnson will actually just accept total regulatory alignment in the end it strikes me as very possible - and I'm not sure the Brexiteers would care. Equally the government is now talking about the fact that there will be pain for some sectors and they don't want or expect "frictionless" trade (the May goal). At best - from that Barnier slide - they want Canada.

It's also worth remembering that the interim "deal" did nothing to solve the NIreland dilemma other than kick it down the road.  There will be one of: (1) hard border in Ireland, (2) hard order in Irish Sea, (3) UK adhering to EU regulatory rules.  The new government is not facing up to this and won't until it is crisis time.

The government's accepted number 2. Given the choice between England's freedom to diverge and the union, they'll choose the former every single time and that's probably clear to unionists now who, I imagine, are thinking a lot about Edward Carson's line from almost a century ago:

I believed all this. I thought of the last thirty years, during which I was fighting with others whose friendship and comradeship I hope I will lose from tonight, because I do not value any friendship that is not founded upon confidence and trust. I was in earnest. What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power. And of all the men in my experience that I think are the most loathsome it is those who will sell their friends for the purpose of conciliating their enemies, and, perhaps, still worse, the men who climb up a ladder into power of which even I may have been part of a humble rung, and then, when they have got into power, kick the ladder away without any concern for the pain, or injury, or mischief, or damage that they do to those who have helped them to gain power.

As Theresa May would put it, nothing has changed.

[The Minsky Moment]

The government's accepted number 2.

Hmm

Again this week Johnson was asked during prime minister's questions by the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson if unfettered access for Northern Ireland businesses to the UK single market included goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

The Prime Minister replied: "Emphatically, Mr Speaker, it does." The European Commission has consistently contradicted this.

Looks like the government is still trying to have its cake, eat it, sell it to someone else, and display it permanently in a shop window with "Get Brexit Done" in bright passport blue colored frosting.

[The Minsky Moment]

So it'll be an issue for sure, but I think it will probably be "done" on 31 January.

The only thing that happens on Jan 31 is that the UK will lose its voting rights and right to representation and participation in EU bodies.  Otherwise it will remain in the EU for all other relevant purposes. 

The only really relevant date is the December 31 date for the end of the transition.  And right now I am seeing the same pattern of setting unrealistically tight deadlines, dithering aimlessly while time runs out, and rhetorically disclaiming any intention of extension that we saw under the May government

[Tamas]

That Johnson cannot wait for attention to switch from Brexit seems clear.

But who knows if this is because he just wants to have BINO (Brexit in name only) because that's the easiest and smoothest, or because he wants a no deal crash out at the end of this year that he promised to his chums? Nobody, and nobody will until November-ish.

[Sheilbh]

The government's accepted number 2.

Hmm

Again this week Johnson was asked during prime minister's questions by the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson if unfettered access for Northern Ireland businesses to the UK single market included goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

The Prime Minister replied: "Emphatically, Mr Speaker, it does." The European Commission has consistently contradicted this.

Looks like the government is still trying to have its cake, eat it, sell it to someone else, and display it permanently in a shop window with "Get Brexit Done" in bright passport blue colored frosting.

I mean his government's contradicted it - they've released a 91 question customs declaration for East-West trade. Johnson may not admit the truth and may keep saying he's delivered it on a technicality - I forget the argument but it's to do with the type of form that exporters have to fill out not being a real customs declaration. The reality is there's a customs form in place and the government seem to want to diverge.

But - I go back to Sir Edward Carson's line. The history of unionism in Northern Ireland is putting their faith in the Conservative Party and being let down if not betrayed, because very few people in Great Britain particularly care about the issues that matter to Northern Irish unionists.

The only thing that happens on Jan 31 is that the UK will lose its voting rights and right to representation and participation in EU bodies.  Otherwise it will remain in the EU for all other relevant purposes.

The only really relevant date is the December 31 date for the end of the transition.  And right now I am seeing the same pattern of setting unrealistically tight deadlines, dithering aimlessly while time runs out, and rhetorically disclaiming any intention of extension that we saw under the May government

Maybe and as I say I could see Johnson doing either - he has a good majority. I think he could accept divergence or decide that he wants the most minimal deal and full right to diverge. If I had to guess, I think it's the latter - if you're a Tory advisor then my guess is you think you can take the hit in year one of a big majority and then do enough capital spending and deregulation to get back to growth by year four/five and you can make the UK a little less like the EU and a little more like the US.

I'd like us to stay close, but that's because I'm a Remainer. If you're a Brexiteer you must, at some level, think the prize is the ability to do things differently and politically that's a lot easier if the hit comes in year one of a five year Parliament with a big majority than year three of a hung Parliament with two years left.

But I think all of that is policy. Politics has already moved on - I couldn't tell you what any of the Labour leadership candidates propose for future relationship with the EU because, while it's important it's not as politically salient an issue as "remain" or "leave". Also because of the EU we have 40 years of issues about regulation and trade being fundamentally apolitical, technocractic decisions - I think that will change but probably not yet. So I think it's entirely right that our relations with the EU will be really important from a policy perspective for governments of all stripes, I'm not sure they'll ever be that politically relevant in terms of motivating people to vote, dividing parties etc. Honestly I expect any trade deal with the US to be more controversial and contentious politically than negotiations with the EU.

[The Minsky Moment]

But who knows if this is because he just wants to have BINO (Brexit in name only) because that's the easiest and smoothest, or because he wants a no deal crash out at the end of this year that he promised to his chums? Nobody, and nobody will until November-ish.

sheilbh seems to be saying the latter is baked in and political fallout will be minimal.  I.e. "fuck business" carries the day with the sop being some regulatory goodies.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I understand that right now the United States has no separate trading agreements with the UK individually, but at the moment the actual formal trade barriers between the US and EU are fairly small from a macro perspective. How much are any changes to that in a US/UK deal going to have significant (in terms of say, impact on GDP) result? This was one of the reasons pundits had said more sweeping trade agreements like the proposed Transatlantic free trade agreement between US/EU are kind of almost not worth the "trouble." Because trade barriers are already very low between these entities, so the potential upside is small. And the areas where trade barriers remain tend to be the hardest regulatory and political parts of the economy for which any resolution will piss a lot of people off.

[Josquius]

Encouraging language from europe

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-will-keep-a-seat-free-for-uk-if-brexit-does-not-work-out-says-varadkar-1.4152751?mode=amp

Of course, the usual suspects will see this as proof the evil remoaners purposefully made brexit fail.

[Sheilbh]

But who knows if this is because he just wants to have BINO (Brexit in name only) because that's the easiest and smoothest, or because he wants a no deal crash out at the end of this year that he promised to his chums? Nobody, and nobody will until November-ish.

sheilbh seems to be saying the latter is baked in and political fallout will be minimal.  I.e. "fuck business" carries the day with the sop being some regulatory goodies.

He might choose to stay aligned - look at the last deal. And the political fallout could be huge.

My point is that if you're a Tory Brexiteer and you've spent your entire career wanting to leave the EU it isn't so you can stay closely aligned. Chances are you think the big goal of leaving the EU is that you can cut regulation in all sorts of areas. Now you might err on the side of caution if you've only got a hung Parliament and a couple of years to the next election. You will be bolder if you have a big majority and the biggest hit will be in year one of five.

If you've got a big hit I think of Philip Hammond's interview in Handelsblatt. He is an ultra-Thatcherite but a Remainer who very much wanted to remain aligned to the EU. But he said if there was no deal then, the consequence would be the a big hit to the UK's economy and the UK would have to look radical changes to boost growth and he, as a conservative, would want to cut the state to do it. That was portrayed in the European press and by Remain papers as a threat - which it wasn't. But I think it was and is still true. There are loads of pieces of regulation that would be very unpopular to cut, one way there could be political cover for that is if there's a big economic hit.

I've also read a lot about some Tories thinking that politics and economics have de-coupled or are de-coupling. They point to the US where Trump's economic policies, especially tarrifs, mainly hurt areas that voted for him, but there's not much sign that those areas (especially sort of rural/farming America) are turning against him.