Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

d'oh!  Completely spaced on Japan.

Yeah I nearly did too, but despite an aging population it still has a lot of easily converted power/influence.

Also, I didn't put USA no.1 simply because another 4 more years of Trump will seriously reduce the US positive, reliable role in the world.

[garbon]

d'oh!  Completely spaced on Japan.

Yeah I nearly did too, but despite an aging population it still has a lot of easily converted power/influence.

Also, I didn't put USA no.1 simply because another 4 more years of Trump will seriously reduce the US positive, reliable role in the world.

While China is up there on your positive, reliable front?

[mongers]

d'oh!  Completely spaced on Japan.

Yeah I nearly did too, but despite an aging population it still has a lot of easily converted power/influence.

Also, I didn't put USA no.1 simply because another 4 more years of Trump will seriously reduce the US positive, reliable role in the world.

While China is up there on your positive, reliable front?

No up there for economic size, growth, population and potential only slightly dragged down by it's leader. Whereas Trump will have been a huge drag on the US ship of state, certainly after another four more years.

[Sheilbh]

They are interesting results that raise lots of questions...........eg why would millennials think that China is only #4?

Well also what is "importance"?

If you're looking at economics and regulations then the EU is a superpower and, say, Russia shouldn't even be on the list. I mean Canada matters more than Russia on that stuff.

On the other hand if you look at the ability to leverage your interests then in the EU's neighbourhood from Belarus to Libya there are countries where the EU has important interests, but isn't really able to advance them (especially without the carrot of accession). In all of those states Russia has been able to leverage its interests, arguably it's been able to do the same within EU member states too - so has China (the UK and Italy especially).

I know the current Commission's intent is to be a "geostrategic Commission" so that might change.

Similarly it's a bit odd the Arab League is included because, again, it doesn't do much and is very internally divided. The GCC is probably far more "important".

[Sheilbh]

One thought on the whole divergence thing.

The Tories have always talked about regulatory divergence from a Thatcherite/cutting back the state kind of approach and I think that's still likely.

But given a couple of stories (all around FlyBe) that have come up recently and Johnson's general comments and fondness for big (not necessarily successful) infrastructure projects, part of me wonders if we're looking in the wrong place. I wonder if the regs he really wants rid of are state aid restrictions and he wants to go full out Heseltine-style interventionist

[Josquius]

That would be nice.
Johnsons big projects however are just convenient dead cats I fear. It's sad to see HS2 falling into this too.



The correct order is..
1: USA - duh
2: China. / 3: EU - its not clear cut at all here though and its very arguable that the positions are flipped. Its close.
4: UK / 5: Russia - again its arguable which way around they are. Russia certainly throws its weight around more but its a big fish bullying the inhabitants of a small pond and trolling the Internet. The UK has more soft power and global influence.... For now. Brexit is diminishing this fast.
6: India - let's check back in a decade. It hasn't quite made it yet.
7: Arab League - it seems to be in decline with the turmoil in the region and factionalism
8: Brazil - Meh.
9: African Union--it doesn't really do all that much does it. The east African federation even may be above jt
10: Australia - its very inclusion seems designed to show up British ignorance of the world.

[The Minsky Moment]

On economic strength and clout, the UK and India are battling it out with #5 with India well positioned to overtake but UK arguably still ahead due to legacy institutions like the City.
On political-military-diplomatic clout, the UK is far behind China, USA, EU and definitely behind Russia.  They are the mix for the 5 spot with Japan, India, Saudis.
The UK does punch above its weight in terms of cultural influence - one could argue as high as 3 but question how sustainable that position is.

[Tamas]

.
The UK does punch above its weight in terms of cultural influence - one could argue as high as 3 but question how sustainable that position is.

I think that is fast unraveling in front of our eyes. I mean, there is a historical cultural and political impact that has left a permanent and overwhelmingly positive mark globally. But as far as I can tell, nowadays the only thing you have is the accent of movie actors. That, plus ridicule over Brexit and nowadays ridicule of the Megan-Harry hyperbole. I remember times when it was customary to hold the Brits up as examples of (slightly quirky) reasonable people running a reasonable country. Can't see that anywhere anymore.

[Sheilbh]

On political-military-diplomatic clout, the UK is far behind China, USA, EU and definitely behind Russia.  They are the mix for the 5 spot with Japan, India, Saudis.

I think that's ambitious for the EU. There are too few areas where it has a consistent policy to actually have any clout - except for accession. I'm not even convinced it's particularly able to deal with others' clout.

I mean look at China which is bullying Sweden to no European response, while getting very involved in core infrastructure projects in the UK, Italy and Germany.

I saw a tiny story that I think kind of emphasises this. Kosovo and Serbia have re-started direct Pristina-Belgrade flights which is a baby step towards normalisation. I think it's a Lufthansa flight. But from what I understand the entire thing was negotiated by US diplomats in the Balkans and the US Embassy in Berlin. No European involvement - no doubt in part because of divisions on Kosovo, but also from a friend who worked in the Balkans for years the EU just basically can't influence if it's not to do with an accession acquis or if the local politicians don't care.

Also I think Turkey should probably be up there.

I think that is fast unraveling in front of our eyes. I mean, there is a historical cultural and political impact that has left a permanent and overwhelmingly positive mark globally. But as far as I can tell, nowadays the only thing you have is the accent of movie actors. That, plus ridicule over Brexit and nowadays ridicule of the Megan-Harry hyperbole. I remember times when it was customary to hold the Brits up as examples of (slightly quirky) reasonable people running a reasonable country. Can't see that anywhere anymore.

Maybe. I suppose that might exist, but there is the BBC etc, but I think our biggest cultural soft power is probably our legal system - which isn't really relevant or used as much in Europe.

[The Minsky Moment]

On political-military-diplomatic clout, the UK is far behind China, USA, EU and definitely behind Russia.  They are the mix for the 5 spot with Japan, India, Saudis.

I think that's ambitious for the EU.

.

The EU includes France and Germany, each of which alone could claim to outrank the UK.  I suppose you could disaggregate the EU with a less than a sum of its parts argument but I don't think that would enhance the relative position of the UK.

Also I think Turkey should probably be up there.

Turkey's regional influence is up recently as a consequence of directionless US policy. It doesn't have much clout outside its region and I would be cautious about a rating until we've had more time to evaluate the continuing effectiveness of the current policy.

[Sheilbh]

The EU includes France and Germany, each of which alone could claim to outrank the UK.  I suppose you could disaggregate the EU with a less than a sum of its parts argument but I don't think that would enhance the relative position of the UK.

I'm not arguing about the UK's position. My point is the EU is basically disaggregated outside of a relatively narrow area. It is less than the sum of its parts most of the time.

As I say look at Libya where Germany's hosted a conference and is a big concern for European member states (for different reasons). There is no European position because different member states back different parts of the civil war and I don't think anyone believes the European threat to impose an arms embargo is credible.

The current policy is that this will be a geopolitical Commission and the EU will develop a role, but I don't think we're there yet. We're still basically at the stage that the EU is mainly effective either through accession, or because France, Germany and the UK (and arguably Italy) agree and want to do something. It's definitely a force multiplier for those countries but I don't think it has presence yet - in contrast to economics/regulation where it is absolutely a superpower.

Edit: Also the Withdrawal Agreement passed the Lords today. The Brexit deal is basically ratified from a UK perspective.

Another interesting story - the UK is proceeding with its digital tax despite US threats

[Josquius]

Ah brexiters....

[The Larch]

Check the blue one carefully. 

[garbon]

Yep, an edited version of the image the daily express had actually used

[Syt]