Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

The second time an American woman has brought about a crisis for the British Royals. I'm so proud of them.

[Josquius]

Anyone else get the impression Trum... Err Johnson is letting it all go to his head? He's acting very triumphalist with this big Ben and countdown clock nonsense.
He really is determined to continue to divide the country.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The government is axing NHS A&E waiting time targets; which would annoy even brexit voting citizens; so time to deploy "General" Francois and an utterly ridiculous debate on big Ben and the exit clock.

[Josquius]

The government is axing NHS A&E waiting time targets; which would annoy even brexit voting citizens; so time to deploy "General" Francois and an utterly ridiculous debate on big Ben and the exit clock.

So there is method to the fuck wittery.

I always take it as written the Tories are up to something horrible with the NHS or schools or whatever, though i suppose some others don't learn so easily. :p

[Tamas]

The government is axing NHS A&E waiting time targets; which would annoy even brexit voting citizens; so time to deploy "General" Francois and an utterly ridiculous debate on big Ben and the exit clock.

Failure to meet targets eliminated in a single stroke of genius!

[The Larch]

Everytime there's something utterly stupid taking way more airtime than it deserves, you can be sure that there's some nefarious stuff going on in the background that won't get any attention because of that.

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51157933

Brexit: 'No alignment' with EU on regulation, Javid tells business

The chancellor has warned manufacturers that "there will not be alignment" with the EU after Brexit and insists firms must "adjust" to new regulations.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Sajid Javid admitted not all businesses would benefit from Brexit.

The Food and Drink Federation said it sounded like the "death knell" for frictionless trade with the EU and was likely to cause food prices to rise.

Mr Javid declined to specify which EU rules he wanted to drop.

The automotive, food and drink and pharmaceutical industries all warned the government last year that moving away from key EU rules would be damaging.

But Mr Javid told the paper: "There will be an impact on business one way or the other, some will benefit, some won't."

He said Japan's car industry was an example of a manufacturing sector which found success without following EU rules.

Asked how differing regulations between the UK and EU may impact industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals, he said: "We're also talking about companies that have known since 2016 that we are leaving the EU.

"Admittedly, they didn't know the exact terms."

Tim Rycroft, chief operating officer of the Food and Drink Federation, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that "it sounds awfully like the death knell for the concept of frictionless trade with the EU".

He said it probably meant that food prices would rise when the transition period finishes at the end of this year.

Mr Rycroft acknowledged that some other industries might benefit from UK-specific trade rules. But he said: "We also have to make sure the government clearly understands what the consequences will be for industries like ours if they go ahead and change our trading terms."

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said it welcomed the chancellor's "ambitious" vision but said government should not feel it has an "obligation" to depart from EU rules.

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI director-general, said for many companies, "particularly in some of the most deprived regions of the UK", keeping the same rules would support jobs and maintain competitiveness.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said the automotive industry in the UK and EU was "uniquely integrated" and its priority was to avoid "expensive tariffs and other 'behind the border' barriers".

It said it was vital to have "early sight" of the government's plans so companies could evaluate their impact.

The government has not yet agreed a future trading relationship with the EU - it plans to do so in the 11-month transition period which begins after the UK leaves the bloc on 31 January.

During the transition period the UK will continue to follow EU rules and contribute to its budget.

The chancellor also said he wanted to double the UK's annual economic growth to between 2.7 and 2.8%.

However, the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, told the Financial Times last week he thought the UK's trend growth rate was much lower, at between 1 and 1.5%.

Mr Javid said the extra growth would come from spending on skills and infrastructure in the Midlands and the north of England - even if they did not offer as much "bang for the buck" as projects in other parts of the country.

Historically low interest rates, which allow the government to borrow money relatively cheaply, were "almost a signal to me from the market - from investors - that here's the cash, use it to do something productive", Mr Javid said.

He pledged to rewrite Treasury investment rules, which have tended to favour government investment in places with high economic growth and high productivity.

Mr Javid said the rules had helped to "entrench" inequality and insisted weaker parts of the country would have first call on the new money.

In November, the Bank of England said a weaker global economy and its new assumptions about Brexit would knock 1% off UK growth over the next three years compared with its previous August forecast.

[Sheilbh]

They've got an eighty seat majority and are 160 seats ahead of next biggest party. I worry this is nothing compared to what we'll see - it is alarming for someone who's not old enough to remember an unshackled Tory party in power 

Interesting interview with Javid which does show the difference with May. May was moving to customs union plus regulatory alignment, Johnson would rather have friction and divergence. Plus changes to budget rules and the way government should (though doesn't always) do cost-benefit analysis for public investment to focus spending outside of London, apparently there'll be a 50% increase in capital spending. Which is a big shift from Osborne or Hammond's approach.

[Iormlund]

Well, I hate to say it but you guys brought this on yourselves.

And not just with Brexit. The voting system referendum was such a fucking missed opportunity.

[Hamilcar]

UK government: get ready for changes in regulations!

Businesses: great, please tell us what are the changes, so we can prepare.

UK government: fuck you!

[Josquius]

UK government: get ready for changes in regulations!

Businesses: great, please tell us what are the changes, so we can prepare.

UK government: fuck you!

Its insane the amount they spent on  the "BREXIT IS COMING" advertising campaign.... whilst everything behind that just said "There might be changes of some sort"

[Sheilbh]

Well, I hate to say it but you guys brought this on yourselves.

And not just with Brexit. The voting system referendum was such a fucking missed opportunity.

Yeah. They won the election and there's always been a doubt over what Johnson would go for. I'm seeing lots of stuff about how this is for internal consumption, or he's making the same mistakes as May. That could be true. But she had a majority of 6 and then no majority; he's got a majority of 80 and his next election is in 2024.

So I think there's as least as much of a chance that he's comfortable with a more distant relationship and regulatory divergence, get it done in a year (when the transition period ends) and then gamble on potentially deregulation and a lot of capital spending.

On the electoral system I don't think AV would have made a difference - it was looked at in 2015 because that was after the referendum but it was also a close election. It would have helped the Tories (a little) and the Lib Dems (a little) but that's it. Given those are the changes in a close election while this time the Tories won 44% of the vote and Labour won 32%, I'm not sure AV would really change the results. It might have helped the more hard-core Remain parties plus the anti-Corbyn vote.

Its insane the amount they spent on  the "BREXIT IS COMING" advertising campaign.... whilst everything behind that just said "There might be changes of some sort"

Yeah. I mean I would say this goes both ways. The area I work in there's been more clarity from the UK regulators than the European ones.

But lots of companies I work with have their Brexit plans in place and it's basically "no deal" prep, which they adjust to the transition/deal. From memory all of the major banks actually activated and completed their no deal prep last year.

It's one of the tragic ironies of Brexit  that the areas that voted for it are most likely to be worst hit by it because I actually think it's the agricultural and manufacturing sectors which will be hit hardest and, because those sectors have so many small businesses, it's more difficult to prep. If you're a financial services company, or a tech company, or a big retailer - you are far more likely to have done the work so you can react.

So people vote Brexit in part in frustration at the economic dominance of big companies in London, but those companies are the ones who can afford to make the changes they need

[The Larch]

Snatched from Twitter:

[Maladict]

Snatched from Twitter:

Australia? 

[Iormlund]

It's one of the tragic ironies of Brexit  that the areas that voted for it are most likely to be worst hit by it because I actually think it's the agricultural and manufacturing sectors which will be hit hardest and, because those sectors have so many small businesses, it's more difficult to prep. If you're a financial services company, or a tech company, or a big retailer - you are far more likely to have done the work so you can react.

So people vote Brexit in part in frustration at the economic dominance of big companies in London, but those companies are the ones who can afford to make the changes they need

They might be able to afford it, but I wouldn't count on them having done so. Big companies know the government will step up to save them in the end.