Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

The thing is... those forcing an extension will be extremely hypocritical not voting for the WA, regardless of the precise nature of the backstop.

What else is there? Apart from the LibDems, none of them declares openly they want to revoke A50, but then what DO they want? They don't want no-deal, they don't want to remain, they don't want soft-brexit and they don't want hard-brexit.

They will be handing Johnson his V for Vendetta dystopian rule on a plate if all they'll continue doing is downvote everything.

[Razgovory]

Quite liked the English Lit canon's views on Brexit doing the rounds:

Wordsworth: Pretends to be above it all, but remain.
Ben Jonson: The haughtiest of remainers.
Blake: Heartbroken lexiteer.
Scott: Re-mortgaged Abbotsford to finance the Rory Stewart campaign.
Bronte Sisters: Can't get over the fact that Branwell voted leave.
Austen: Passionate remainer, though maintains a loathing towards A. Campbell and M. Heseltine.
Coleridge: Irritated by how much time he spends following the action on Twitter.
Virginia Woolf: A remainer, but a spectacularly unhelpful one.
D.H. Lawrence: Still trying to sell the details of his affaire with Annunziata Rees-Mogg to the Daily Mail.
Henry James: Finds the Trump/Brexit analogies facile.
Byron: Writes that he is enjoying the 'spectacle of base Britannia burning from afar.' In reality, has a big wedge invested with Odey Asset Management.
Dr Johnson: Leaver. Jeers whenever Simon Schama appears on the TV.
Nancy Mitford: With Decca now national convenor for Momentum, and Diana a correspondent for Fox News, she's no shortage of material.
Swift: Amused by the whole thing, but depressed by the commentary accompanying it.
Tennyson: Bored by Channel 4 Producers asking him to make a documentary about his childhood in the Brexit heartlands of Lincolnshire.
T.S Eliot: His line about 'pondering what Lancelot Andrews would have made of it all is beginning to run thin.
Pope: Currently rewriting The Dunciad.
Dickens: Cannot understand why the EFTA EEA solution hasn't been presented before parliament.
K Amis: True to contrarian form - a remainer.
Larkin: Fallen out with Amis owing to the above.
George Eliot: Militantly remain. She makes the boast that she's never met a leaver.
Spenser: Fanatical no-dealer. Totally opposed to the backstop solution.
Oscar Wilde: Making a fortune with his series of glittering op-eds for the New York Times.
Milton: Currently bellowing outside Parliament while bedeced in a blue star-crossed cape.
Christina Rossetti: Finds the whole charade deeply trivial. Much more interested in talking about Love Island.
Shakespeare: A remainer, but no great fan of the E.U.
Chaucer: Remain, but mainly owing to an obsession with Anna Soubry.
Keats: Didn't vote three years ago, now dead.

Wot, no Graham Greene?

[Valmy]

Heh. I told you Brexit had an advantage during the plebiscite that remain stood for the status quo and they stood for 10,000 unicorns for every fairy princess.

[Sheilbh]

Wot, no Graham Greene?

Best guess: Leave. Profoundly sympathetic with and intrigued by Theresa May.

[Sheilbh]

The thing is... those forcing an extension will be extremely hypocritical not voting for the WA, regardless of the precise nature of the backstop.

What else is there? Apart from the LibDems, none of them declares openly they want to revoke A50, but then what DO they want? They don't want no-deal, they don't want to remain, they don't want soft-brexit and they don't want hard-brexit.

They will be handing Johnson his V for Vendetta dystopian rule on a plate if all they'll continue doing is downvote everything.

Yeah, the issue is you've basically got two coalitions.

There's a coalition of remainers and hard-core Brexiteers (plus a lot of the Labour Party) who will vote against any deal. They're doing that because they want to revoke, a second vote, hard-core Brexit, or just can't accept a Tory deal.

Then there's a coalition of all the opposition parties and a rump of pro-deal/remainy Tories who will do whatever they can to stop no deal. Because all those opposition parties are remainers or Labour, the one thing they won't do is vote for the deal.

Again it's one of those things that points towards an election. Though I sort of suspect we'd end up with very similar numbers.

[ulmont]

Again it's one of those things that points towards an election.

Which isn't possible without a majority to call a vote of no confidence (or a 2/3 vote in favor of an election), correct?

[Sheilbh]

Which isn't possible without a majority to call a vote of no confidence (or a 2/3 vote in favor of an election), correct?

I think that's right. My understanding is if there's a vote of no confidence there's a two week period to assemble another government with the confidence of the House (again, this shows how important Corbyn's role is), or as you say, 2/3 vote for an election.

Which is part of the constitutional issue. We have a predominately political rather than legal constitution. So the government has immense power, but ultimately Parliament has more and acts as a check. But it's never envisaged that the government and Parliament would be on different sides like in the US or France.

Also the EU is designed on an intra-governmental basis. It doesn't negotiate with legislatures, it negotiates with and decides by executives. Which sort of makes sense because foreign policies and especially treaties are historically always the preserve of the executive. So even if the Commons were to come up with an agreed solution, there's not really anyway for the EU to deal with that. I mean the current situation is so insane: the legislature is sending the executive effectively as a delegate to get an extension. It's unprecedented.

In the long-run I do wonder what we're moving towards politically. The vote is fracturing and there's very strong regional differences in the nations of the UK (SNP, Plaid, NI). But given our political culture and what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 I wonder if instead of moving towards European style coalition governments, we'll end up with actually a very assertive legislature and an executive that has loads of powers in theory but is actually very constrained.

[Zanza]

But given our political culture and what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 I wonder if instead of moving towards European style coalition governments, we'll end up with actually a very assertive legislature and an executive that has loads of powers in theory but is actually very constrained.

I think what RH outlined above is more likely at this point. A populist, somewhat authoritarian executive that circumvents the mechanisms and spirit of representative democracy. We see that in many countries around the world and it fits with the supposed "people vs parliament/politicians" rethoric we have heard recently. 

[Razgovory]

Wot, no Graham Greene?

Best guess: Leave. Profoundly sympathetic with and intrigued by Theresa May.

Okay, now do Orwell.

Sorry about that, I just liked Graham Greene.  Orwell isn't that bad either.  I read his "Homage to Catalonia" a few years back and pleasantly surprised by his clear prose.

[Josquius]

Orwell. The man who was an international volunteer in the Spanish civil war. Undoubtedly remain. Probably a key figure in the campaign, persuading lexiters of the error of their ways.

[Sheilbh]

I think what RH outlined above is more likely at this point. A populist, somewhat authoritarian executive that circumvents the mechanisms and spirit of representative democracy. We see that in many countries around the world and it fits with the supposed "people vs parliament/politicians" rethoric we have heard recently.

Yeah. That's definitely a risk but it requires someone to win an election, which I just don't think is likely any time soon.

Orwell. The man who was an international volunteer in the Spanish civil war. Undoubtedly remain. Probably a key figure in the campaign, persuading lexiters of the error of their ways.

Orwell who wrote the Lion and the Unicorn? Maybe a leaver?

Not sure.

[Tonitrus]

I think what RH outlined above is more likely at this point. A populist, somewhat authoritarian executive that circumvents the mechanisms and spirit of representative democracy. We see that in many countries around the world and it fits with the supposed "people vs parliament/politicians" rethoric we have heard recently.

Yeah. That's definitely a risk but it requires someone to win an election, which I just don't think is likely any time soon.

Orwell. The man who was an international volunteer in the Spanish civil war. Undoubtedly remain. Probably a key figure in the campaign, persuading lexiters of the error of their ways.

Orwell who wrote the Lion and the Unicorn? Maybe a leaver?

Not sure.

Seems pretty clear remainer. 

http://orwell.ru/library/articles/European_Unity/english/e_teu

[Tamas]

I find it very telling that in the three years since the referendum, not only the Leave side has failed to show any tangible examples or plans on how leaving in any form might improve Britain, they have in fact abandoned all talk of sunlit uplands, and have been concentrating on the grudging necessity to carry the "will of the people" out no matter the cost or hardships.

It is just a dumb, ignorant idea to have a nation of 60 million leave a block of more than 300 million -with the biggest combined market- in an era where 400 million USA is competing with a 1 billion China, a 1 billion India, and with a 150 million Russia not exiled to the sidelines only because they have enough nukes to prevent that.

Yes, Britain had the talent, skills, drive, and geography to conquer where the world, both physically and culturally, when all the stars aligned for that. But that is gone and it is never coming back.

The last bit of it that truly remained and had a real chance of persisting in importance was the cultural impact. The Brits seemed like the slightly quirky but level-headed source and protectors of many of the core values and institutions that underpinned successful political and cultural patterns in the world.

That seems entirely destroyed now with Brexit. This is the final act in erasing the British Empire from the world, and it was entirely avoidable.

[Sheilbh]

Seems pretty clear remainer. 

http://orwell.ru/library/articles/European_Unity/english/e_teu

Ha! Fair. But reading that I feel he might joing Blake as a devastated Lexiteer after watching Europe 2008-2015 (and ongoing)?

Yes, Britain had the talent, skills, drive, and geography to conquer where the world, both physically and culturally, when all the stars aligned for that. But that is gone and it is never coming back.

I think it's the stuff of certain bits of the Tory parties. But wanting influence and a say in the world is, I think, more a remainer quality. That's partly why 90% of people who worry about British influence supported remain. All the great imperial cities supported remain: London, Glasgow, Manchester, Liverpool, Belfast.

Leave voters, I think, are fundamentally isolationist (and I do wonder how much of everything starts with Iraq). I don't think they want any influence or say in the world. They don't care about being on the sidelines. The countries they admire are ones I think they (wrongly) perceive as not really getting involved: Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Singapore. And the places where Leave won are a deeper England, not Britain and beyond sending boys to die not particularly "imperial".

What I don't think they've realised is how little the world will care about that desire to opt out. So look at the way China behaves towards Australia, or Switzerland's never ending negotiation with the EU. The whole chlorinated chicken thing is just a taster.

[Iormlund]

Ha! Fair. But reading that I feel he might joing Blake as a devastated Lexiteer after watching Europe 2008-2015 (and ongoing)?

I've never understood why one would leave the EU based on the Euro crisis, and that's from someone who actively argued for leaving the Eurozone back in the day.

The problem was never the EU itself, it was (and is) a flawed implementation of the Euro. That would have never affected the UK directly, and Brexit will not insulate it from spillover effects due to geography.