Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Apparently thousands of civil servants are busy on preparations. Where it goes smoothly Johnson will take the credit, where it goes badly it will be due to sabotage by "remoaner" civil servants.


Mark Carney reckons that the preparations for no-deal will limit the damage to 5.5% of GDP rather than the baseline of 8%. That is a substantial mitigation.

[Duque de Bragança]

Mark Carney reckons that the preparations for no-deal will limit the damage to 5.5% of GDP rather than the baseline of 8%. That is a substantial mitigation.

I say open a bottle of champagne to celebrate.   

[Razgovory]

I'm kind of concerned that if Britain crashes hard, losing 5.5 % of GDP and the like what Hakluyt is describing, it could drag the rest of the world economy down with it.

[Iormlund]

We are already seeing a contraction in the automotive sector. Word from management is we are to shrink the workforce at our division by 50%. 

Part of it is Brexit, part is things like uncertainty due to emission standards, electric & autonomous cars.

[Zanza]

The automotive sector in Britain faces a triple challenge from Brexit, technological disruption and worldwide market contraction. Two of these shared with their non-UK competitors, but Brexit is not helping them at all.

[Iormlund]

"Government-assisted suicide" sounds more appropriate than "challenge" in their case.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently thousands of civil servants are busy on preparations. Where it goes smoothly Johnson will take the credit, where it goes badly it will be due to sabotage by "remoaner" civil servants.


Mark Carney reckons that the preparations for no-deal will limit the damage to 5.5% of GDP rather than the baseline of 8%. That is a substantial mitigation.

Imagine how much better prepared we could be if our mitigations weren't trapped between "nothing" and "scare-mongering remoaner nonsense that will offend Mark Francois".

[Sheilbh]

Quite liked the English Lit canon's views on Brexit doing the rounds:

Wordsworth: Pretends to be above it all, but remain.
Ben Jonson: The haughtiest of remainers.
Blake: Heartbroken lexiteer.
Scott: Re-mortgaged Abbotsford to finance the Rory Stewart campaign.
Bronte Sisters: Can't get over the fact that Branwell voted leave.
Austen: Passionate remainer, though maintains a loathing towards A. Campbell and M. Heseltine.
Coleridge: Irritated by how much time he spends following the action on Twitter.
Virginia Woolf: A remainer, but a spectacularly unhelpful one.
D.H. Lawrence: Still trying to sell the details of his affaire with Annunziata Rees-Mogg to the Daily Mail.
Henry James: Finds the Trump/Brexit analogies facile.
Byron: Writes that he is enjoying the 'spectacle of base Britannia burning from afar.' In reality, has a big wedge invested with Odey Asset Management.
Dr Johnson: Leaver. Jeers whenever Simon Schama appears on the TV.
Nancy Mitford: With Decca now national convenor for Momentum, and Diana a correspondent for Fox News, she's no shortage of material.
Swift: Amused by the whole thing, but depressed by the commentary accompanying it.
Tennyson: Bored by Channel 4 Producers asking him to make a documentary about his childhood in the Brexit heartlands of Lincolnshire.
T.S Eliot: His line about 'pondering what Lancelot Andrews would have made of it all is beginning to run thin.
Pope: Currently rewriting The Dunciad.
Dickens: Cannot understand why the EFTA EEA solution hasn't been presented before parliament.
K Amis: True to contrarian form - a remainer.
Larkin: Fallen out with Amis owing to the above.
George Eliot: Militantly remain. She makes the boast that she's never met a leaver.
Spenser: Fanatical no-dealer. Totally opposed to the backstop solution.
Oscar Wilde: Making a fortune with his series of glittering op-eds for the New York Times.
Milton: Currently bellowing outside Parliament while bedeced in a blue star-crossed cape.
Christina Rossetti: Finds the whole charade deeply trivial. Much more interested in talking about Love Island.
Shakespeare: A remainer, but no great fan of the E.U.
Chaucer: Remain, but mainly owing to an obsession with Anna Soubry.
Keats: Didn't vote three years ago, now dead.

[Zanza]

https://www.ft.com/content/7517abfa-d638-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77

Sebastian Payne and George Parker in London and Jim Brunsden and Mehreen Khan in Brussels

Boris Johnson is planning to force a new Brexit deal through parliament in just 10 days — including holding late-night and weekend sittings — in a further sign of Downing Street's determination to negotiate an orderly exit from the EU.

According to Number 10 officials, Mr Johnson's team has drawn up detailed plans under which the prime minister would secure a deal with the EU at a Brussels summit on October 17-18, before pushing the new withdrawal deal through parliament at breakneck speed.

The pound rose 1.1 per cent against the US dollar to $1.247 on Friday amid growing optimism that Mr Johnson has now decisively shifted away from the prospect of a no-deal exit and is focused on a compromise largely based on Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.

Officials in Dublin and Brussels say there are signs of movement from Mr Johnson as he searches for a compromise on the Irish backstop, the contentious insurance policy against a return to a hard border in Ireland, although both sides remain far apart.

EU diplomats said that talks on Friday in Brussels between the European Commission and UK negotiators had been more productive than previous meetings.

Inside No 10: Under siege but still defiant

An EU diplomatic note said that Britain seemed willing to stick with some of what had been agreed by Mrs May to prevent animal health checks at the Irish border, and so keep food and livestock moving freely on the island. The UK is even "considering" keeping Northern Ireland aligned with future EU rule changes, according to the note.

Diplomats cautioned, however, that important points remained unresolved, and that this would be only part of the solution for avoiding a hard Irish border. Britain has also yet to make written proposals and EU officials are worried about the lack of time left to secure any new agreement before the UK's scheduled departure date of October 31.

On Monday, Mr Johnson will travel to Luxembourg to meet European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss the prospects for a deal — their first meeting since the Tory leader entered Downing Street in July.

Meanwhile Tory chief whip Mark Spencer has told hardline Eurosceptic rebels they will be thrown out of the party if they reject any deal Mr Johnson negotiates in Brussels.

Let's hope that this is a sign that the time of British Brexit wish-wash is finally coming to an end and that Number 10 is seriously interested in finding a solution.

At the same time Mr Johnson is trying to charm some hardliners, inviting Eurosceptic MPs to Chequers, his country retreat, for drinks on Friday night.

One MP appeared resigned to backing Mr Johnson if he secured a compromise deal: "He hasn't really got anywhere else to go. Let's see what he gets in Brussels."

Nikki da Costa, the prime minister's head of legislative affairs, has told colleagues she is confident that if a deal emerges from the next European Council, it could be passed into law before October 31.

"Nikki has told us she has a plan to pass a Brexit deal in 10 days flat," said one senior government official. "Parliament might be sitting every day and night, including the weekend, but she is confident we can leave on October 31 with a deal."

"It is technically possible to get the necessary legislation through in around 10 days — we have just seen MPs pass a bill in one day in the Commons," said Maddy Thimont Jack, from the Institute for Government think-tank. She added, however, that "rushing it through in this way means little time for proper scrutiny".

At their meeting on Monday, Mr Juncker is expected to push Mr Johnson to come forward with a detailed Brexit proposal, warning that time is short and that any solution must protect the all-Ireland economy and the EU's single market.

Brexit threatens to reopen old wounds in Northern Ireland "Let's hope that this is a sign that the time of British Brexit wish-wash is finally coming to an end and that Number 10 is seriously interested in finding a solution," said one EU diplomat.

Many in Brussels are convinced that the only solution lies in returning to a "Northern Ireland-only" version of the backstop, an idea proposed by the EU in early 2018 but rejected by Mrs May.

That plan would scrap the alternative all-UK customs union with the EU which was rejected three times by MPs, and would require checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea.

Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionist party which supports the Tory government, described as "nonsense" suggestions she would be prepared to accept a border in the Irish Sea, but the party is nevertheless engaging in a search for a compromise.

Meaningful Vote IV coming in late October on a WA with a Northern Ireland only backstop?

I found the part about hardliners voting against it being thrown out interesting. Purging first the moderates and then the hardliners is a bold tactic...

The assumption that a new deal can be made in a two day summit is also interesting. That would not allow for many deviations from the original agreement. It's not like the EU has much incentive to change their stance. Johnson is a weak PM facing an immediate GE after all...

[Syt]

Repeated because, well, it bears repeating.

[Zanza]

The graph ends in mid 2017, so I guess by mid 2019 it will have approached 100%... 

[Zanza]

[Iormlund]

 

[Josquius]

Both of these images are true.

Though I do think ever more British people are realising unicorns don't exist.

[Sheilbh]

Meaningful Vote IV coming in late October on a WA with a Northern Ireland only backstop?

Wouldn't shock me to see him betraying the men in bowler hats.

And other more mainstream unionists

I found the part about hardliners voting against it being thrown out interesting. Purging first the moderates and then the hardliners is a bold tactic...

The assumption that a new deal can be made in a two day summit is also interesting. That would not allow for many deviations from the original agreement. It's not like the EU has much incentive to change their stance. Johnson is a weak PM facing an immediate GE after all...

I don't see where he gets the votes. The 21 moderates would back a deal. I doubt the real hard-core of the ERG would.

There's some Labour MPs who say tthey regret not voting for a deal earlier, but I don't think it's enough.

Especially as I think the likely Labour analysis will be that Johnson has to request an extension which will probably be granted (I get the reasons it might not but still) and I feel there's a possibility we end up in the final week with a final choice: no deal or revoke.

But from Labour's perspective he'll either resign leading to a caretaker government and an election, or he'll extend (despite all of his promises) then an election. Plus I think there's probably a majority of Labour MPs who just aren't willing to vote for a deal done by a Tory PM.