Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

How many countries are in the UKs geographic situation who deliberately avoid a customs union with the EU? Can't be that many. I can think of... zero?

It's literally the worst of all worlds

There's a case for trying to re-join or get into the single market. There's a case for being out and diverging. I can't think of any benefit for a customs union for an economy like the UK's.

[Admiral Yi]

The word "and" was intended to denote two distinct (though related) ideas in the same sentence. 

How are they related?

[The Minsky Moment]

Absent Brexit, at least some marbles would be in the EU basket. But where those marbles go is a matter of the realities of the UK's position in the world and how the UK chose to structure its security, its diplomacy and its foreign relations.

[Admiral Yi]

And what do marbles represent?

[The Minsky Moment]

And what do marbles represent?

The stuff you can't lose.

[Sheilbh]

Absent Brexit, at least some marbles would be in the EU basket. But where those marbles go is a matter of the realities of the UK's position in the world and how the UK chose to structure its security, its diplomacy and its foreign relations.

I think this needs a different Britain - and perhaps Trump prompts that but I'm not sure. I don't think Britain's every put any security and foreign policy marbles into the EU - we blocked every attempt to expand the foreign and security policy bits of the EU treaties. Even Blair who's one of the most pro-EU PMs we've ever had massively watered down the common defence article to basically subordinate it to NATO (it was also watered down following the Irish vote against Lisbon because of concerns around Irish neutrality).

I think part of the wrench for Britain now is that the basis of the policy of the British state - regardless of the PM - since Suez is shaky. It might be that in the EU there could be a huge re-imagining of Britain's entire view of the world - but I'm not sure there would be (and that's assuming the UK would still be in the EU - I think covid would have put enormous strain on any British membership of Europe).

But also - where I think we're similar with the rest of Europe (arguably in a better position than most) - is we've got no hard power to matter in any real way. We don't have much meaningful to offer partners of any type. There is an insane disconnect right now of military chiefs and Defence Secretary talking about war with Russia while the government policy is actually to get to 2.6% by 2027 and 3.5% by 2035, although I don't think that cognitive dissonance is unique to the UK but is extreme here. I think underpinning that have been two delusions: on the right a fantastical view of the "special relationship" and on the left an equal belief that we don't need to defend ourselves because of norms and international law. Both incredibly complacent and both reinforce whatever other weaknesses, such as Brexit, there are.

[Oexmelin]

And what do marbles represent?

The stuff you can't lose.

That's why they belong in a museum.

[Josquius]

Absent brexit the odds of so much shit going down would have been sharply reduced due to the less confident Putin.
Interference in the US elections could even be toned down to get a saner result there.
The full invasion of Ukraine would have its odds reduced with a united Europe featuring Britain.
2016 stands out as key for the world becoming fucked.
 Brexit shifted so many odds towards the negative, even things not immediately connected.

[Sheilbh]

I'm afraid I just don't think Britain matters that much

And my view is fundamentally Brexit is just the local manifestation of global forces. There's a long British history that meant that was the faultline in British politics. But it didn't shift anything. It was the canary in the coalmine or the first swallow in the summer - nothing more.

[Josquius]

I'm afraid I just don't think Britain matters that much

And my view is fundamentally Brexit is just the local manifestation of global forces. There's a long British history that meant that was the faultline in British politics. But it didn't shift anything. It was the canary in the coalmine or the first swallow in the summer - nothing more.

The UK's lack of importance is overstated I do think.
Perhaps in reflex to those on the right who think its still the early 20th century and Britain is a major power.
The UK clearly isn't a stand alone power on a par with China or the US. But on a European level we are one of the more important nations. And Europe united adds up to something quite significant.
Bare in mind Russia believed Germany was firmly under their thumb and the importance of Britain at odds with Europe is laid bare.
Its widely reported that Russia is paranoid about the UK and often thinks anything bad that happens is down to Perfidious Albion.

Plus what I'm saying here isn't that Brexit itself, in itself, was responsible for everything. But victory here boosted the chances of other actions such as those due to a disunited weaker Europe, and it served as a test bed to prove what election meddling could pull off without many resources- which had big global consequences in the US.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think this needs a different Britain - and perhaps Trump prompts that but I'm not sure. I don't think Britain's every put any security and foreign policy marbles into the EU - we blocked every attempt to expand the foreign and security policy bits of the EU treaties. Even Blair who's one of the most pro-EU PMs we've ever had massively watered down the common defence article to basically subordinate it to NATO (it was also watered down following the Irish vote against Lisbon because of concerns around Irish neutrality).

Well perhaps I do need to clarify "marbles"

I don't think you can make absolute and crystal clear bright lines between security policy, diplomacy, foreign policy, trade, economic policy, taxation, and economic regulation.  In fact, one of the aspects of the "Trump Effect" has been to blur and break down those distinctions.  It's in that sense that I mean EU membership necessarily puts some marbles in the EU basket.

[HVC]

And what do marbles represent?

The stuff you can't lose.

That's why they belong in a museum.

The Earl of Elgin approves.

[Josquius]

[Jacob]

What conclusions should we draw from this?

[Tonitrus]

Labour needs to fix their shit so this becomes moot?