Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

Twice?

You think you'd be leaving the EU if the LibDems had a mandate in Parliament now?

Not voting Lib Dem was more complicated than that.

[Zanza]

Well yeah what I meant was that despite what Macron and others are saying, I think a lot of EU leaders would be far happier with the UK out, than in.

I think most were genuinely sad that Britain voted to leave. But these days they accepted it and just want Brexit to be a done deal so they can focus on more important topics.

[Josquius]

Twice?

You think you'd be leaving the EU if the LibDems had a mandate in Parliament now?

Labour made a tactical decision to avoid the Tory's brexit trap and ignore the issue in the election. Most remain groups encouraged tactical voting, which called for remain supporters to vote labour as the lesser evil where voting lib dem wouldn't have an impact other than to split the progressive vote.

[Tamas]

Twice?

You think you'd be leaving the EU if the LibDems had a mandate in Parliament now?

Labour made a tactical decision to avoid the Tory's brexit trap and ignore the issue in the election. Most remain groups encouraged tactical voting, which called for remain supporters to vote labour as the lesser evil where voting lib dem wouldn't have an impact other than to split the progressive vote.

Calling Corbyn's Labour progressive is quite the stretch.

[Zanza]

First day of talks: Britain agreed to the EU's sequential approach to the talks, meaning they'll first sort out the issues coming from the separation and only then start talking about a future relationship.

[Admiral Yi]

Calling Corbyn's Labour progressive is quite the stretch.

It fits the commonly accepted meaning of progressive better than your reference to Macron's En Marche!!!  He sounds pretty neo-liberal to me.

[The Minsky Moment]

I agree.  This isn't about negotiating what is good for the people, it is about bureaucratic and electoral politics on both sides.  The leadership on both sides would rather have a bad/no deal that makes them look good than a good deal that makes them look bad.

That's true but only part of the problem.  There might be sufficient political imagination left on both sides that a good deal could be found that makes everyone look pretty good, or at least not bad.

But even if there were such a political path, the UK leadership doesn't really know what they want or are negotiating for and there is no popular mandate for any particular endpoint.  It's also clear that the complexities of the break are such that the <2 yr timetable is hopelessly realistic, yet no one wants to talk extension out of fear that would vitiate the incentive to negotiate with some urgency - that's a real potential recipe for a train wreck.

[Zanza]

An extension of the timeline opens new questions: There is an election to the European Parliament in May 2019. If Britain is still a member by then, do they get to elect MEPs? Britain apparently already wants to exclude all EU citizens that move to Britain after the Article 50 declaration in March from the "generous" citizen rights agreement. If we extend their membership somehow, that would get more toxic, not less. Depending on how far an extension would go, it would also affect the next EU seven-year budget.

[dps]

hopelessly realistic

I suppose you actually meant "hopelessly unrealistic".

[The Minsky Moment]

oops

[Tamas]

David Davis, ladies and gentlemen:

"The UK has asked to leave the EU, not the other way around, so we each have to assume the consequences of our decisions and the consequences are substantial," he replied, when asked if the EU was making any concessions of its own. "Please do not underestimate those consequences.

Meanwhile, Bank of England:

Monetary policy cannot prevent the weaker real income growth likely to accompany the transition to new trading arrangements with the EU. But it can influence how this hit to incomes is distributed between job losses and price rises

[Josquius]

Hilarious to see the Kippers on comments sections believing this negotiation is some sort of contest we can win.

[The Larch]

Better not read comments sections, it's bad for mental health and blood pressure levels.

[Agelastus]

Better not read comments sections, it's bad for mental health and blood pressure levels.

Agreed.

My personal rule (which, to my own regret, I do sometimes ignore) is to only look at a comments section when you have absolutely no interest in the subject under discussion and are looking for a laugh.

[Gups]

The only question is whether the EU is going to use lube or not.