Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Jacob]

The only question is whether the EU is going to use lube or not.

The other question is whether the UK will send an actual negotiation team. It's not too far-fetched to picture a scenario where the EU is willing to offer lube but the UK is non-responsive resulting in the lube being discarded.

[garbon]

How vulgar.

[Tamas]

The only question is whether the EU is going to use lube or not.

The other question is whether the UK will send an actual negotiation team. It's not too far-fetched to picture a scenario where the EU is willing to offer lube but the UK is non-responsive resulting in the lube being discarded.

I am more hopeful after David Davis bending over and conceding defeat on a main issue after the first day. They may want to upset the British status quo to grab the spoils of chaos, but they probably want some spoils to be left unburnt after the dust settles.

[Josquius]

Stop press. The Queen secretly loves the EU.

http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/style/819612/queen-elizabeth-state-opening-parliament-london-blue

[Zanza]

EU leaders look beyond Brexit and love what they see
With a series of crises in check and Brexit talks started on their terms, EU leaders have a spring in their step.

Call it summer EU-phoria.

There was a blazing sun overhead as European leaders arrived in Brussels for their summer summit Thursday, and the political outlook seemed just as bright, with an array of crises in check, economic indicators on the upswing across the Continent, and spirits lifted by a series of ballot-box triumphs.

Perhaps most importantly, the leaders arrived to tackle an agenda packed with issues that showed them not only unbowed by Brexit but even capitalizing on the U.K.'s impending departure to push forward in areas such as defense cooperation where London had long thrown up obstacles.

Summing up the optimism, Council President Donald Tusk said: "This is the 80th European Council in which I have participated as prime minister or European Council president, but never before have I had such a strong belief that things are going in a better direction."

"Our optimism should still be extremely cautious," Tusk said, giving a brief disclaimer, seemingly intended to ward off any jinx.

"But," he continued, "we have good reasons to talk about it. Among them are: economic growth in each and every country of the EU; falling unemployment with the highest level of employed people ever recorded; the financial agreement with Greece; the surge of pro-European sentiment in recent weeks according to the polls; the election defeats of anti-European parties and victories of political leaders who stand 100 percent for the EU, from Bulgaria and Austria to the Netherlands and of course France."

In other circumstances it might seem like so much self-inflated political spin. But in truth, the bloc, which was buffeted for years by the eurozone and migration crises and the nadir of the Brexit vote, has undergone a remarkable turnabout in fortunes.

The election of the centrist and pro-European integrationist Emmanuel Macron as president of France has sent hopes soaring of a renewed Franco-German power nexus at the heart of the EU. And Macron's colleagues seemed intent on making sure that his European Council debut was a successful one, in part by allowing him to push a strong message on the need to protect against unfair trade practices.

After a first series of meetings on Thursday afternoon, German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed that the mood behind the scenes was uncharacteristically upbeat.

While other recent summits had focused on "critical developments," Merkel said the atmosphere was noticeably brighter and the summit was an example of how Europe could move forward. "Today the emphasis was on optimism," she said.

The summit was not only a showcase for the new French leader.

Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the bloc's éminence grise, also used the gathering to continue pushing the conversation about the EU's future that he successfully jumpstarted with a well-received white paper earlier this year.

Indeed, Juncker hailed the leaders' swift approval of a historic plan for greater military cooperation as the culmination of decades of work and he expressed personal satisfaction that the initiative known as "permanent structured cooperation" was finally being implemented after existing on paper for a decade as an unused provision of the Treaty of Lisbon.

"I said this is the sleeping princess of the Lisbon Treaty," Juncker declared at an afternoon news conference with Tusk. "Well, the princess is now awakening."

With few signs of discord, leaders planned to issue a meaty, 12-page set of conclusions on Friday that would show them taking proactive steps on every salient issue of the moment including defense, security and counterterrorism, climate change, jobs and economic growth, trade, migration, digital innovation, and cybersecurity.

To be sure there were potential trouble spots, notably sharp differences among EU nations over how and where to relocate two agencies — the European Medicines Agency and the European Banking Authority — from London after Brexit. Predictably, many countries are vying for those prizes.

Even that potentially treacherous discussion appeared to have been navigated successfully, at least for the moment, with leaders agreeing on a process that would delay the decision for about a month, until November, but would avert a clash by setting a clear, four-stage competitive bidding process.

In a broader sense, the disciplined unity that EU leaders have worked to build as part of the Brexit negotiating process seemed to have taken root and spread. And the overall sentiment Thursday was one of ambitious optimism. "That's the story: Europe is back," a senior Council official said. "We're back in business."

While the Brexit talks had formally begun just three days earlier — and nearly two years of tough discussions appear to lie ahead — this week's summit in many respects appeared to mark the U.K.'s de facto departure from the bloc. Britain's muscle and influence seemed to have vanished in a puff.

While U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was allotted time during a working dinner to address other leaders, no time was allowed for response, as Tusk sought to block May from trying to use the Council forum to divide the remaining 27 nations or to advance Britain's negotiating aims.

Instead, Tusk planned for the 27 to discuss the issue of the agency relocations among themselves once May had left the group, part of the dual-track Council meetings that are now required since her formal triggering of withdrawal negotiations in March.

But far bigger symbolism was intended in the lack of focus on Brexit, as Tusk, Juncker and others sought to make good on their promise not to get distracted by the U.K. That pledge has only seemed more important since the dismal showing of May and her Conservative Party in British national elections this month that left her clinging to power and cast a cloud of uncertainty over her personal future.

Indeed, the EU is feeling so upbeat and so confident that Tusk, at a joint press statement with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday morning, even allowed himself a public hope that the British might still change their minds.

"Some of my British friends have even asked me whether Brexit could be reversed and whether I could imagine an outcome where the U.K. stays part of the EU," Tusk said, a glint in his eye. "I told them that in fact the European Union was built on dreams that seemed impossible to achieve, so who knows?"

Tusk couldn't help but throw in a British musical reference. "You may say I am a dreamer," the former Polish prime minister said. "But I am not the only one."

http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-look-beyond-brexit-and-love-what-they-see/


Good to see that the EU seems on a more positive and constructive trajectory now. Brexit might be the catalyst for a better union. High price to pay, but it would be good if at least some good would come out of this political tragedy.

[Tamas]

Details will be presented to the British parliament on Monday but it seems May did not return the favour of the EU's very generous offer to the British expats in EU territory. They basically offered 100% lifetime EU rights to the Brits who move to any of the EU countries until Brexit actually happens.

May's proposal is much more convoluted. It is not horrible I guess (and BTW, I have arrived to the UK early enough to not have to worry about this, in theory at least), but I find it very distasteful as it seems to be all about making sure they don't just "lie down" to the EU and that they retain a free hand in dealing with EU migrants however after Brexit:

The prime minister told them the UK was willing to agree to a "cutoff point" between 29 March this year, when May formally triggered article 50, and the later date of March 2019 preferred by the European commission.


EU citizens already in the UK – and those who arrive lawfully during a subsequent "grace period," expected to be up to two years – will be given the opportunity to build up five years' worth of residence.

That will entitle them to a special category of "settled status", conferring the same rights to work, pensions, NHS care and other public services as British citizens, which they will maintain for life.

The offer, which is contingent on a reciprocal pledge about the rights of the 1.5 million British citizens currently living elsewhere in the EU, falls short of the EU's demand for its citizens living in the UK to maintain all EU rights in perpetuity. But the prime minister told her fellow leaders she did not want to see anyone already in the UK forced to leave, or families split up.

"The UK's position represents a fair and serious offer, and one aimed at giving as much certainty as possible to citizens who have settled in the UK, building careers and lives and contributing so much to our society," May said.

But the UK is not prepared to concede to the EU's demand to allow the European court of justice to be the guarantor of those rights. A government source said: "The commitment we will make will be enshrined in UK law, and enforceable through our highly-respected courts."

[Admiral Yi]

What's the difference besides the ECJ jurisdiction?

[ulmont]

What's the difference besides the ECJ jurisdiction?

Tough to tell.  The summary suggests the cutoff date for the offer is a difference, but the grace period might make it a moot point.

[garbon]

Details will be presented to the British parliament on Monday but it seems May did not return the favour of the EU's very generous offer to the British expats in EU territory. They basically offered 100% lifetime EU rights to the Brits who move to any of the EU countries until Brexit actually happens.

May's proposal is much more convoluted. It is not horrible I guess (and BTW, I have arrived to the UK early enough to not have to worry about this, in theory at least), but I find it very distasteful as it seems to be all about making sure they don't just "lie down" to the EU and that they retain a free hand in dealing with EU migrants however after Brexit:

The prime minister told them the UK was willing to agree to a "cutoff point" between 29 March this year, when May formally triggered article 50, and the later date of March 2019 preferred by the European commission.


EU citizens already in the UK – and those who arrive lawfully during a subsequent "grace period," expected to be up to two years – will be given the opportunity to build up five years' worth of residence.

That will entitle them to a special category of "settled status", conferring the same rights to work, pensions, NHS care and other public services as British citizens, which they will maintain for life.

The offer, which is contingent on a reciprocal pledge about the rights of the 1.5 million British citizens currently living elsewhere in the EU, falls short of the EU's demand for its citizens living in the UK to maintain all EU rights in perpetuity. But the prime minister told her fellow leaders she did not want to see anyone already in the UK forced to leave, or families split up.

"The UK's position represents a fair and serious offer, and one aimed at giving as much certainty as possible to citizens who have settled in the UK, building careers and lives and contributing so much to our society," May said.

But the UK is not prepared to concede to the EU's demand to allow the European court of justice to be the guarantor of those rights. A government source said: "The commitment we will make will be enshrined in UK law, and enforceable through our highly-respected courts."

More convoluted? I read that blurb a few times and it seems like the main sticking point is that the EU citizens here won't get to keep all EU rights. Doesn't seem all that unfair.

[Tamas]

IDK. I have just probably become too suspicious of this woman.

And I wonder if "settled status" is the same as the permanent resident status you can already get after 5 years.

[garbon]

IDK. I have just probably become too suspicious of this woman.

And I wonder if "settled status" is the same as the permanent resident status you can already get after 5 years.

I know, your bias was showing.

I'm wondering what will be 'new' or 'special' about that status as I know that 'settled status' was already an existing term in UK terminology which just meant you were free to stick around but not a citizen. Was something before that EU citizens never got issued as wasn't necessary.

[Richard Hakluyt]

At least the British negotiating team appears to be engaging with reality; which is a relief.

I wonder when the general mass of the populace will realise that Brexit is Bullshit?

I agree with Tim here :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/22/year-ago-britain-voted-leave-eu-worse-both-worlds

Especially this bit :

"As things are at the moment, that's where I suspect we'll end up – there or thereabouts. But it's not inevitable. So we British Europeans should gather all our strength to say, at the moment when the half-baked negotiation result is presented to parliament: "This is the worst of both worlds, neither having our cake nor eating it. Why settle for second-best, associate membership, with many clear disadvantages and few advantages, when you could just stay and have the real thing?"

After all, as Brexit secretary David Davis observed a few years ago, "if a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy"."

[Josquius]

So. We've finally reached the stage we should have been at to start this cluster fuck.

Have to hope rationality prevails and this mess turns into 3 lost years rather than decades.

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-expats-condemn-theresa-may-pathetic-offer-on-brexit-rights

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/23/eu-expats-condemn-theresa-may-pathetic-offer-on-brexit-rights

So sounds like what I said is true. They are angry because EU law isn't going to still cover them when the UK leaves the EU. I don't understand why they expect that anything different would happen. Leaving EU laws behind was a big component.

And, of course, that they don't like how some of the words aren't perfectly clear in details.  As an immigrant, myself, I'd say yeah, that's how it rolls people.

I mean understand the anxiety that people are facing given that they may now need to go through immigration process and they never expected to but to pretend like the UK was ever going to do something else (or that what the UK has said is a raw deal) seems...disingenuous.