Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

Well, I'm still not convinced that even a Brexit with no agreements in place will be the disaster some have predicted.

Well let's imagine that we took the United States and cancelled everything we had done since 1977. Seems kind of like a clusterfuck to me.

But then again I don't know which disaster that some had predicted you mean.

[Jacob]

Well, I'm still not convinced that even a Brexit with no agreements in place will be the disaster some have predicted.

Care to elaborate?

[dps]

Well, I'm still not convinced that even a Brexit with no agreements in place will be the disaster some have predicted.

Care to elaborate?

Some people seemed to be predicting the total economic collapse of the UK.

[Valmy]

Yeah that might be a little far.

[Zanza]

I think the economic effect has been overstated by "Project Fear", but it certainly exists and seems to become more visible lately. In nominal exchange rate terms the effect was immediate and considerable.
That said there are non economic consequences. If our own Tamas wants to bring his parents to Britain to care for them, that's no problem now. But might be a problem in the future. He loses some of his individual rights.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think there will be a recession, followed by a period of re-adjustment and opportunity. I can see that if we have tariff barriers with the EU it will be bad for services but might help our manufacturers; that is going against the grain of comparative advantage though, so we can expect a net loss there.

The non-economic consequences are more important in my view, especially in the long run; pulling up the drawbridge to prevent our fellow Europeans living here is a very retrograde step.

[Josquius]

Weren't those total collapse predictions based on the "pull out straight away" idiocy?

[Tamas]

I read a couple of days ago that the EU nurses applying to be registered in the UK has fallen from around 1400 in last June to 46 this June. I hope the proudly British Leavers are lining up to be nurses otherwise there'll be big troubles.

[Josquius]

I read a couple of days ago that the EU nurses applying to be registered in the UK has fallen from around 1400 in last June to 46 this June. I hope the proudly British Leavers are lining up to be nurses otherwise there'll be big troubles.

The more disturbing number than 1400 is 96%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40248366

[celedhring]

It's happening in other sectors. My GF has been told by several firms that they are dialing back on hiring EU lawyers because of immigration concerns.

I guess that's WAD if you're a leaver.

[Tamas]

It's happening in other sectors. My GF has been told by several firms that they are dialing back on hiring EU lawyers because of immigration concerns.

I guess that's WAD if you're a leaver.

Blue passports, mate. Had to be done.

[The Larch]

I read a couple of days ago that the EU nurses applying to be registered in the UK has fallen from around 1400 in last June to 46 this June. I hope the proudly British Leavers are lining up to be nurses otherwise there'll be big troubles.

The more disturbing number than 1400 is 96%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40248366

Comparing data from april with data from july is a bit tricky, though. In any case it's plain to see that right after the Brexit referendum (almost one year ago already, damn how time flies...) registrations plumetted. The claim that it's due to new language requiriments seems dodgy to me.

[The Minsky Moment]

I read a couple of days ago that the EU nurses applying to be registered in the UK has fallen from around 1400 in last June to 46 this June. I hope the proudly British Leavers are lining up to be nurses otherwise there'll be big troubles.

Planning in advance?  It's that kind of regimented European style thinking that caused people to vote for Brexit in the first place.  The British can easily handle such problems in their distinctive national manner- waiting to the last minute and muddling through as best as possible.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Recruitment of trainee nurses is also down, by about 25%, because the government got rid of bursaries for trainees so the cost of training has considerably increased for the individuals concerned. Meanwhile nurses' pay has only risen by about 1% per annum during the austerity period. The net result is that the financial rewards are now almost insulting and morale is low, so additional nurses retire early if it is possible.

A pity about the 7.5 from the North Korean judge, otherwise the government would have got a perfect score for a magnificently orchestrated balls-up.

[Valmy]

Well fortunately there will be hundreds of millions available for the NHS in a couple years.