Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Yeah, I found out about it as I met my mam today and she brought up the ex MP quitting. First I'd heard of it.
She didn't know who they'd got to replace him yet and I mentioned it'll probably be an expert in something or other, a technocrat, who would be good to have in a junior cabinet position.
I gave it a quick Google and stumbled on this guy. I've not had a chance to do much digging beyond skimming his Wikipeida but about all he seems to have going for him is he's really hard for zionism.
Which... Yeah. Do not want. I'd be surprised if we have triple figure Jewish people round our way never mind any connection to Palestine whatsoever.
Maybe it's to help with the red-brown vote? - but then that was a problem next door*. We remained loyal.

No he's a long-standing councillor, I think in Hackney, who has on the Labour NEC for years and years. He's normally the lead on the centrist slate (so I feel like he was one of the resistance NEC during the Corbyn years). He's on the ultra-Blairite right of the party. He's been very involved in the disciplinary cases against the left and in shepherding rule changes through conference that are believed to help the right/hurt the left.

During the Corbyn he founded or ran a think tank, I think Labour First, which was about fighting for the Labour right pov/fighting to win.

It's rewarding an ultra-loyalist for Starmer who, in the internal party politics of committee rooms and rulebooks has done a lot of useful work. As well as the reward you can see the appeal in having that sort of MP (that sort of figure, historically made up about half the Scottish Labour MPs ).S%

As you describe it that sounds even worse then.

Laura Pidcock? I'd always thought she was a bit like Richard Burgon to be honest She has a sterling record of turning historic Labour strongholds Tory both at council and constituency level which suggests she might not be that good.

I don't think we can blame many individual MPs for 2019 with the whole Corbophobia, brekshit, populist drum banging going on.
Notable her seat was fairly close too.

This is all second and third hand but I have heard from her old constituents she was a really good local MP. Responsive to local issues, always showing up to things and seeming actually interested and nice, and generally a decent lass.

But... We've huge fascist issues in the area. Zero media attention letting them get away with anything.
The core of consett is a textbook old industrial town left to rot, where anyone doing anything with their life escapes ASAP, and then it also had tacked on a huge amount of rural west Durham so even in a normal election would have seen a bigger tory vote than it traditionally did.

This sort of thing I honestly don't mind at all.
It's the law of the country that to get anywhere in life some time in London is hard to avoid.
If someone is from an area but goes to work in London for a decade before returning the that's great local representation in my book.
Maybe. My read is it's a bunch of twinks who couldn't get out of their suburban hell-hole fast enough, now returning and pretending to like it

Or wanting to fix it so nobody else has to suffer the same fate :p

[Sheilbh]

I think a key difference between us is that I generally think running away to the big city is a good thing to be encouraged

[HVC]

To be fair Josq ran so far away he crossed continents

[Josquius]

I think a key difference between us is that I generally think running away to the big city is a good thing to be encouraged

Its an issue of freedom and choice.
You're a masochist and actually want to live in London? That's your choice.
But if you'd prefer to live in Liverpool but still have a good career in a field that in Britain today is heavily clustered in London, then it'd be great if you could have that choice too.

[Tamas]

As I keep saying, one thing people fail to consider, I think, is that it is the South East which has decent weather. If you live here already, why would you move up North to Grim Grey Rain Land? 

[Josquius]

As I keep saying, one thing people fail to consider, I think, is that it is the South East which has decent weather. If you live here already, why would you move up North to Grim Grey Rain Land? 

If its weather you want then go to Cornwall with its Mediterranean climate... and which economically is basically the north. :p

I know the north west gets more rain than us but I've not heard of London getting particularly less.

But again its about choice. If you like the south east then stay. But it'd be better for people already there if so many people from elsewhere weren't forced to move there by circumstance.

[Gups]

London gets  a bit less rain than (say) Leeds - about 10-15% less and is about 2 degrees centigrade warmer. But yeah, generally, it rains a lot more in the west than the east

[Gups]

BTW Cornwall, wonderful though it is, certainly does not have a  nice climate. It's much more rainy than most of teh country and pretty cold too.

[Sheilbh]

Also I just don't think that most people living here in London or the South-East are forced to by circumstance and somehow against their will. There's a generational churn angle. But I also think basically they want it - I think there's a poll of young people (admittedly desperate to break free) and 75% who leave where they come from do not want to move back. In terms of people identifying with a region other than where they live - the top region is London.

There is a career side which I agree is something we should try to reduce (to a point - there will always be hubs and specialisations, that's a good thing). But also for a lot of people it is the big city with all that comes with that, just like New York or Sydney.

Obviously something like two thirds of Brits live within 50 miles of where they grew up.

BTW Cornwall, wonderful though it is, certainly does not have a  nice climate. It's much more rainy than most of teh country and pretty cold too.

It is also absolutely not in any way Mediterranean

As I keep saying, one thing people fail to consider, I think, is that it is the South East which has decent weather. If you live here already, why would you move up North to Grim Grey Rain Land? 

I just also think that we sometimes forget that people choose to live there because they quite like it as mad as that sounds.

[Sheilbh]

On the election Sunak getting photobombed by Lib Dems on a boat in Henley:
https://x.com/BBCSouthNews/status/1797629392195121466

Striking thing here is that the PM is in Henley at all. With the exception of the 1906-10 Parliament, it's been a Tory seat since it was created in 1885

It's probably not at risk but shows the nerves about the Blue Wall and from what I've seen Sunak's stops have been very, very focused on the Blue Wall. It looks like they're trying to save the traditional pre-Brexit Tory party rather than the Red Wall or any focus on the new coalition they had post-Brexit/post-2019. I suspect they'd always have to choose and this is probably the choice that makes sense but still interesting.

Edit: Oh and previous MPs for Henley include Boris Johnson and Michael Heseltine

Separately really interesting from The Economist data team on where they're sending their activists:

Owen Winter
@OwenWntr
What's going on in Birmingham, Bethnal Green, Bradford and Leicester?

Labour is directing activists to some of its safest seats in the country, constituencies where Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi people make up >30% of the population: https://economist.com/britain/2024/05/30/labour-is-worried-about-safe-seats-with-big-south-asian-populations


I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its "how to help" webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.


On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%:

Biggest Conservative majorities that Labour is targeting:

1. Tamworth (43%)
2. Cannock Chase (43%)
3. Great Yarmouth (41%)
4. Warwickshire North & Bedworth (39%)
5. Redditch (39%)
6. Amber Valley (37%)
7. Leicestershire North West (37%)
8. Harlow (35%)

But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:

1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%)
2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%)
3. Bradford West (61%)
4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%)
5. Leicester South (46%)
6. Blackburn (3%)

What do they have in common? All of them are over 30% Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi. As you go down the list, Labour are sending activists to many other areas with significant South Asian populations: Bolton, Ealing, Huddersfield, Luton, Oldham
The seats selected suggest more than one factor at play. Some have substantial Muslim populations, where Labour struggled in the 2024 local elections and where there are a number of Independent or Workers Party candidates standing on pro-Palestine platforms
Sending activists to these seats fits with Starmer's shifting tone on the war in Gaza. Labour are clearly worried about Muslim voters
But they also include seats with significant Hindu and Sikh British Indian populations. These groups have been trending away from Labour and were a particular weak point in the 2023 and 2022 locals, when Cons made big gains in Leicester, Slough and Harrow

Owen Winter
@OwenWntr
May 11, 2023
Even if you account for Leicester and Slough having unique local factors, it looks as though wards with higher British Indian populations swung away from Labour and towards the Conservatives in the local elections

Really interesting that Labour feels a threat both from Muslim voters who are very disappointed with the party's response on Gaza but also that British Indian voters are continuing to trend Tory.

My understanding is that to a large extent what's happening is more that race is becoming a less predictive indicator of how British Indians will vote. It's not that the entire community is swinging from Labour to Tory but more that they basically resemble white British voters - they're voting in the same way when you take into account things like education, age, class. Race is becoming less significant than those voters.

Obviously I think there is a Sunak factor here, but I think it started before he became PM. There may be a BJP element - Modi's far more interested in reaching out to (and controlling) the diaspora in a way that's more like China while, historically, Indian politics hasn't really been interested in diaspora communities. So there's been a few big BJP rallies this election cycle (mainly car convoys) but you also think back to the joint Cameron-Modi event in 2015 (when Cameron predicted there'd be a British Indian leader of the Tory party within a decade).

But I've also read that there is a widespread perception that Labour is anti-India - which is a bit like sentiments in the British Jewish community - basically that Labour holds India to a different standard and is far more focused on them than, say, Pakistan. Labour often has emergency resolutions condemning India in Kashmir for example and there's been a long-standing campaign from MPs with large Sikh communities in their constituency to declassify details of British involvement in storming the Golden Temple in the 80s. All of which, from what I've read, contributes to a view that Labour sort of has an issue with India specifically (just like, some British Jews feel, it has an issue with Israel). In a way both are quite ironic (perhaps sadly) given the historic links between the British Labour Party, Zionism and Indian nationalism.

[Gups]

Farage has appointed himself leader of Reform.

[Sheilbh]

And is running in Clacton. He's not won in any of his last seven elections, but Clacton seems winnable for him.

Bad to worse for the Tories and Canada 93 intensifies

[Josquius]

I do wonder about how much top politician visits X matters?
So Starmer comes to my town...what are the odds I'll be one of those to see him? I guess the name of my town will perk my ears a bit on the news but otherwise, the adventures he has here would be just the same as in any other town.
I'd say it probably does help a little locally. But not as much as it would have once upon a time.


Any sight on how things are going between labour and the lib dems?
I expect the dying tories are the primary target for both. But seen any serious targeting of each others seats or three way battles?
Big fingers crossed for sensible right wingers to go that way.

But I've also read that there is a widespread perception that Labour is anti-India - which is a bit like sentiments in the British Jewish community - basically that Labour holds India to a different standard and is far more focused on them than, say, Pakistan. Labour often has emergency resolutions condemning India in Kashmir for example and there's been a long-standing campaign from MPs with large Sikh communities in their constituency to declassify details of British involvement in storming the Golden Temple in the 80s. All of which, from what I've read, contributes to a view that Labour sort of has an issue with India specifically (just like, some British Jews feel, it has an issue with Israel). In a way both are quite ironic (perhaps sadly) given the historic links between the British Labour Party, Zionism and Indian nationalism.

With the weird slant on history popular there today I expect Labour's role in independence is conveniently ignored.

[HVC]

And is running in Clacton. He's not won in any of his last seven elections, but Clacton seems winnable for him.

Bad to worse for the Tories and Canada 93 intensifies

Lots of Russians?

[Sheilbh]

I do wonder about how much top politician visits X matters?
So Starmer comes to my town...what are the odds I'll be one of those to see him? I guess the name of my town will perk my ears a bit on the news but otherwise, the adventures he has here would be just the same as in any other town.
I'd say it probably does help a little locally. But not as much as it would have once upon a time.

It's mainly about local news I think - plus a pull for local activists for a day of lots of activity.

Plus obviously tying into national campaign/image messaging. It was pointed out by Laura Kuenssberg, for example, that Starmer keeps doing events and non-league football grounds.

With the weird slant on history popular there today I expect Labour's role in independence is conveniently ignored.

I don't think any Indians really have a view of their being good or bad imperial British governments. And the thing that, from what I've read, Indians really blame the British for is partition which happened under Labour.

But also I think in the current Indian takes on history it would probably more be Labour getting tainted because of how close they were to leading Congress figures like Gandhi and Nehru.

Edit:

Any sight on how things are going between labour and the lib dems?
I expect the dying tories are the primary target for both. But seen any serious targeting of each others seats or three way battles?
Big fingers crossed for sensible right wingers to go that way.

One of the consequences of Brexit (and post-coalition elections) is that it has clarified voting patterns quite a lot. There are very, very few genuinely three-way seats and there are very, very few Lib Dem-Lab swing seats (maybe Sheffield Hallam).

You need to go quite a long way down Labour's list of target seats before you get to the Lib Dems. Similarly for the Lib Dems there's probably about 1 Labour seat for every 10 Tory seat on their list of targets. They're both in separate lanes now - and both will be targeting the Tories.

That'll probably shift after the election if there's  big Labour majority and the Lib Dems can pick up protest votes again as they did under Charles Kennedy.

Lots of Russians?

Very old, very white and pretty deprived. Essex retirees in an old seaside town.

His announcement was, inevitably, at the end of the pier.