Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I saw Labour trying to make Sunak's hedge fund past into an attack and thought it would probably be too complicated to be effective.

I think I was wrong (also "The Big Short: Rishi Sunak" is savage):
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1797691790197137525

[Sheilbh]

Separately - and this is before the Farage news - YouGov MRP:

YouGov
@YouGov
Our first MRP of the 2024 general election shows Labour winning a majority of 194, larger than even Tony Blair's landslides

Labour: 422 (+220 from GE2019)
Conservative: 140 (-225)
Lib Dem: 48 (+37)
SNP: 17 (-31)
Green: 2 (+1)
PC: 2 (-2)
Reform UK: 0 (=)

And one done by More in Common:

Luke Tryl
@LukeTryl
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_
 @TheNewsAgents
 MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114
🔴 Labour 382 (+180)
🔵 Conservative 180 (-185)
🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19)
🟡 SNP 35 (-13)
🟢Plaid 3 (-1)
🟩 Green 1 (-)
Changes on 2019 actual seat totals

The Tories were briefing that they think they won the "air war" in the first week

Also as it's one of the few seats I feel qualified to have an opinion on - there is no way that the SNP are down to 17 seats and hold onto Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.

Edit: Also not sure I can really see Labour winning Na h-Eileanan an Iar, but the incumbent SNP MP was expelled from the party so I think he's running an independent or for Alba, so the nationalist vote might split and there's increasing signs of unionist tactical voting in Scotland.....so maybe

[Admiral Yi]

I saw Labour trying to make Sunak's hedge fund past into an attack and thought it would probably be too complicated to be effective.

I think I was wrong (also "The Big Short: Rishi Sunak" is savage):
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1797691790197137525

Dumb it down, throw in some lies, populist success.

[Tamas]

Saw the Tory election advert on ITV. Grey colours. Labour politicians profiled, ranked "Dangerous" for "threat level".

Bit of a poor man's Orban campaign.

[Barrister]

Saw the Tory election advert on ITV. Grey colours. Labour politicians profiled, ranked "Dangerous" for "threat level".

Bit of a poor man's Orban campaign.

Not saying you're wrong, but that's pretty standard for an incumbent - paint your opposition as scary and dangerous.  Better to stick with the devil you know, etc.

[PJL]

Reminds me of the New Labour, New Danger campaign in 1997 with the 'demon eyed' Blair. Didn't work then and it won't work now.

[Jacob]

I saw Labour trying to make Sunak's hedge fund past into an attack and thought it would probably be too complicated to be effective.

I think I was wrong (also "The Big Short: Rishi Sunak" is savage):
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1797691790197137525

For those - like me - who would like to see it but are not engaging with Musk's toxic platform:

I enjoyed it

[Sheilbh]

Reminds me of the New Labour, New Danger campaign in 1997 with the 'demon eyed' Blair. Didn't work then and it won't work now.

Not saying you're wrong, but that's pretty standard for an incumbent - paint your opposition as scary and dangerous.  Better to stick with the devil you know, etc.

Yeah seems reminiscent of Major's attacks on Blair - and very unlikely to work on Starmer who is also framing a lot of the campaign around security:

It's one of the very weird things of this campaign is the mixing up of time for a change/more of the same. So the Tories are saying "stick with the plan by choosing bold action", while Labour are saying "stability is change

Dumb it down, throw in some lies, populist success.

You mistake me for someone who thinks populism is a problem

[Sheilbh]

Also possibly relevant for overseas folks.

There are strict impartiality rules on TV channels, particularly during an election. For example the broadcasters must provide an "appropriate" level of coverage for all parties based on their past and current support - again, as with politicians getting on TV, there are algorithms of polls and election results.

But political broadcast advertising isn't allowed. Instead each party is allocated time on the challenges for a "party election broadcast". The BBC publishes its algorithms/how it allocates time and OfCom (media regulator) has guidance the commercial channels need to follow. These are typically about 5 minutes long so can't really do a standard "advert" style ad and are, generally, not very memorable (though I always remember the UKIP one of an animatronic EU octopus marauding through London).

Political adverts used to be regulated by the Advertising Standards Agency which meant, like all adverts, they needed to be "legal, decent, honest and truthful". That ended in 1997. In part because it was felt that it would undermine the ASA if they were being called to adjudicate political campaigns, but also for fears that it could breach freedom of speech with the Human Rights Act. The Electoral Commission does regulate the content but the rules are less stringent than for product advertising. Broadcasters can still reject if they think it's unlawful - and, being broadcasters, I imagine that's mainly about IP rights.

Social media isn't regulated by OfCom and isn't treated as a "broadcast" so they're not allocated, they're normally a lot shorter and more punchy and political parties can make as many of them as they like/pump them out all the time. That's why so many of the videos are on platforms like Twitter. Each party will get a few party election broadcasts but social media is unlimited (and unregulated).

[Jacob]

What's the accent (and its connotations) of the guy saying "Keir Starmer and the same old Labour"?

[Sheilbh]

I think posh Edinburgh (or at least posh Scottish). Don't think there's any connotations - though I suspect they wanted a "macho" sounding voice.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally on fixing MP selections, the current Tory party chairman is MP for North-West Durham. He will lose that seat.

So he'd tried to find a safe seat elsewhere in the country and settled on Central Suffolk and Ipswich. Local party members were furious that they felt they'd been given a stitched up, centrally imposed short-list that favoured him. Opposition was so strong he thought he might lose and had now withdrawn from going for the nomination.

Part of this is power - a party coming into power has a lot more lee-way, one on the way out doesn't. But also, Labour (particularly under Starmer) are other level when it comes to parachuting candidates and party HQ rigging contests for their preferred candidate.

[Valmy]

LOL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5aJ-57_YsQ&t=1085s

The Green Party is blocking green energy in Britain?

Damn who would have thought the Texas Republican Party, completely in the pocket of big oil, is much more in favor of green energy than the fucking Green Party of Britain. What good are these people?

[Josquius]

Incidentally on fixing MP selections, the current Tory party chairman is MP for North-West Durham. He will lose that seat.

So he'd tried to find a safe seat elsewhere in the country and settled on Central Suffolk and Ipswich. Local party members were furious that they felt they'd been given a stitched up, centrally imposed short-list that favoured him. Opposition was so strong he thought he might lose and had now withdrawn from going for the nomination.

Part of this is power - a party coming into power has a lot more lee-way, one on the way out doesn't. But also, Labour (particularly under Starmer) are other level when it comes to parachuting candidates and party HQ rigging contests for their preferred candidate.

Heh, they opened the door to the the biffers, happy to have them as an extra in traditionally labour seats up north, but the thought of one of them getting a traditional tory seat in the south.... The pearl clutching is wonderful.

[Richard Hakluyt]

LOL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5aJ-57_YsQ&t=1085s

The Green Party is blocking green energy in Britain?

Damn who would have thought the Texas Republican Party, completely in the pocket of big oil, is much more in favor of green energy than the fucking Green Party of Britain. What good are these people?

They don't appear to be interested in solutions which is why I have never been tempted to vote for them.

It is a shame as the general view in the UK, I think, is quite green (though tainted by nimbyism of course).