Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[HVC]

1% doesn't seem like a lot. Also, you all flocking to America until the early 1900s probably skews the numbers a bit. Not the net flow exactly, but the appearance of people entering.

But isn't the point that actually it's not just an abstract or the number but the change and its pace - which is significant. It's not just the early 1900s but basically as far back as we can reliably go more people left the UK than entered, which has changed in the last few decades and very significantly in recent years. As I say I think that's possibly a common European experience.

But that's my point. It's not that more people are coming to the uk, it's that America (and Australia) are full so you can't get there as easily as before. Your avenues of escape are diminishing, basically . So those bemoaning people coming to the island get a distorted view from charts like that.

[HVC]

1% doesn't seem like a lot. Also, you all flocking to America until the early 1900s probably skews the numbers a bit. Not the net flow exactly, but the appearance of people entering.

Also, Indians are everywhere kind of wonder if they're the number one immigrant to most western countries? I even hear Portuguese people mentioning the influx of Indian immigrants. I guess goa might be a reason, but never really thought of Indian immigration to Portugal before. 

1% per year, every year, is absolutely a lot of immigration.  It's about the same rate we're taking immigrants (400,000 per year in a nation of 39 million).

Fair enough.

[HVC]

But yeah Goa, Daman and Diu - I could be wrong but I'd guess that's a significant proportion of Indian migrants in Portugal.

My understanding is the new wave aren't from those regions. But it's 3rd hand/broken telephone so I can be wrong. Most are moving to Lisbon and Porto, so not as noticeable, but there's a heathy number moving to the alentejo. Property prices and what not. Since that area is depopulated it's much more noticeable. I mean it's good that areas are getting populated (and as a Canadian I have a generally good view on immigration). But in circumstances like that integration is much harder.

*edit* older wave also had a lot of Tamil Christians, besides goans and Goan neighbours

[Sheilbh]

But that's my point. It's not that more people are coming to the uk, it's that America (and Australia) are full so you can't get there as easily as before. Your avenues of escape are diminishing, basically . So those bemoaning people coming to the island get a distorted view from charts like that.

So maybe compared to the early 20th century.

For the post-war I believe the outflow is pretty stable at about 500k per year. That includes Brits leaving but also migrants moving back or to another country (similarly Brits can be immigrants if they're returning from living abroad).

What has changed is the inflow which has gone from about 750k per year 15 years ago to 1.25-1.5 million per year in the last few years.

(I'd add here there are probably some statistical errors with this - e.g. the UK statistics office underestimated the number of EU citizens living in the UK by half. So it may have been higher in fact but not in stats. Also the way statistics on immigration are collected is basically surveys at the point of entry which doesn't seem the best but absent registration/ID cards....)

[HVC]

But that's my point. It's not that more people are coming to the uk, it's that America (and Australia) are full so you can't get there as easily as before. Your avenues of escape are diminishing, basically . So those bemoaning people coming to the island get a distorted view from charts like that.

So maybe compared to the early 20th century.

For the post-war I believe the outflow is pretty stable at about 500k per year. That includes Brits leaving but also migrants moving back or to another country (similarly Brits can be immigrants if they're returning from living abroad).

What has changed is the inflow which has gone from about 750k per year 15 years ago to 1.25-1.5 million per year in the last few years.

(I'd add here there are probably some statistical errors with this - e.g. the UK statistics office underestimated the number of EU citizens living in the UK by half. So it may have been higher in fact but not in stats. Also the way statistics on immigration are collected is basically surveys at the point of entry which doesn't seem the best but absent registration/ID cards....)

I guess my qualm was moving the trend back into the 1800

[Sheilbh]

Watching the debate randomly. It's quite painful. Shouldn't be happening really.

Honestly my main thought, even though Sunak was shouting and talking over a lot which isn't a good look, was that 45 seconds is not long enough to respond. If you're getting fairly involved questions with personal experience I think the politicians need at least a couple of minutes to respond to the person and then develop a thought.

I just don't think "how would you fix the NHS, you have 45 seconds Prime Minister" serves anyone, including the public, particularly well.

I guess my qualm was moving the trend back into the 1800

Oh I think that's just as far back as we can really go (the BofE loves producing long range stats ) and the broad point that I think is relevant, whatever the cause, is moving from generally a country where more people leave than arrive to the opposite. As I say I think it's a European experience that is quite novel.

[Tamas]

So if that's net migration, has somebody looked into it if it's not skewed by East Euros, Poles in particular, leaving? Poland has been having it pretty well lately and frankly there parts of the UK which I would not choose over the best/better parts of Poland.

[Sheilbh]

So if that's net migration, has somebody looked into it if it's not skewed by East Euros, Poles in particular, leaving? Poland has been having it pretty well lately and frankly there parts of the UK which I would not choose over the best/better parts of Poland.

It's definitely part of it - EU is now probably in net emigration). So here's the inflow:


And the outflow:


As I say my understanding is that the outflow of about 500k is broadly pretty stable - it bobs up and down but is around that number. So most of the changes in net migration is from the inflow.

Obviously there are also a few exceptional things in recent years - covid and post-lockdown migration (particularly with students - can't help but think the recent uptick in non-EU emigrants three years after 2020 is tied to students and the pandemic), Hong Kong and Ukraine. Those will level out.

[Josquius]

Worrying vibes about that Sunak performed better, Starmer should have corrected the £2000 lie quicker and so on...but seems this is just political folk chattering amongst themselves, the sort whose minds are already made up. Polls suggest Labour is still on top.
Checking https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The Tories are just a few seats ahead of the Lib Dems. Oh I'd love to see this.

Also speaking of multi-way marginals: Ceredigion looks messy.

[Duque de Bragança]

But yeah Goa, Daman and Diu - I could be wrong but I'd guess that's a significant proportion of Indian migrants in Portugal.

My understanding is the new wave aren't from those regions. But it's 3rd hand/broken telephone so I can be wrong. Most are moving to Lisbon and Porto, so not as noticeable, but there's a heathy number moving to the alentejo. Property prices and what not. Since that area is depopulated it's much more noticeable. I mean it's good that areas are getting populated (and as a Canadian I have a generally good view on immigration). But in circumstances like that integration is much harder.

*edit* older wave also had a lot of Tamil Christians, besides goans and Goan neighbours

But yeah Goa, Daman and Diu - I could be wrong but I'd guess that's a significant proportion of Indian migrants in Portugal.

My understanding is the new wave aren't from those regions. But it's 3rd hand/broken telephone so I can be wrong. Most are moving to Lisbon and Porto, so not as noticeable, but there's a heathy number moving to the alentejo. Property prices and what not. Since that area is depopulated it's much more noticeable. I mean it's good that areas are getting populated (and as a Canadian I have a generally good view on immigration). But in circumstances like that integration is much harder.

*edit* older wave also had a lot of Tamil Christians, besides goans and Goan neighbours

Your Moorish broken telephone is pretty good this time it seems. 
Yes, the new Indian immigrants are from Bengal, young muslim males, do not speak Portuguese, so they have trouble adjusting to Portuguese society (any European society in fact) and its values, say the place of women.
Goans did not have these problems and have been coming steadily, but in smaller numbers, for a long while.

[Tamas]

One thing that has me worried a bit is listening to the Rest is Politics jokers is that it sounds like a lot of the Labour lead in polls is from young people. But, only like a third of those normally bothers to go and, you know, vote.

Add to that the "I can't vote for a government-in-waiting" leftie folks going Green, and I am worried this won't be nearly as delicious a Tory collapse as they'd deserve.

[Gups]

One thing that has me worried a bit is listening to the Rest is Politics jokers is that it sounds like a lot of the Labour lead in polls is from young people. But, only like a third of those normally bothers to go and, you know, vote.

Add to that the "I can't vote for a government-in-waiting" leftie folks going Green, and I am worried this won't be nearly as delicious a Tory collapse as they'd deserve.

The factor likelihood to vote in the polls. Labour leads in every age group except over 75s.

[Sheilbh]

One thing that has me worried a bit is listening to the Rest is Politics jokers is that it sounds like a lot of the Labour lead in polls is from young people. But, only like a third of those normally bothers to go and, you know, vote.

Yeah what Gups says:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins

If you look at that Labour are on 50%+ in every age group under 50 and the Tories don't even hit 20% until you get to people in their 60s.

It's worth comparing that with recent elections, for context. In 2010 and 2015 the main divide was type of employment - Cameron won every age group of private sector workers, Labour won public sector workers and students (which explains th age divide then as obviously younger people more likely to be students). Then in 2017 Labour do relatively well and the "cross-over" age when most voters shift from Labour to Tory was 55. In 2019 it was 35. This election it looks like it's 75

Also just to add I think part of this is they need to keep it interesting (and both are desperate for any reason to indicate that the one thing Labour need to do is talk about Brexit). I think it's a bit like the debate - they don't matter much but also that YouGov poll because it was quickest set the tone of the coverage that it was 50/50 which, given how Sunak and the Tories poll, is a surprisingly good result for Sunak. Today, two or three other pollsters have released their results which all show a pretty solid Starmer win. Again it doesn't matter, but everyone needs a story - and journalists and podcasters have to somehow make this interesting (and we'll probably have a couple of days of "Sunak on the up after the debate" and then a set of polls conducted after the debate showing it didn't really matter):


One other thing on that with Rest of Politics specifically is that the shift on that - collapse in young people's turnout - is quite new. And it started in 1997. Through the 70s, 80s and 90s young people had about 70% turnout and old people about 80% - so a difference but not a significant one. After 1997 old people still have about 80% turnout, while turnout in the under 35s bounce around 40-50% turnout. It'd be interesting to see Alastair Campbell's thoughts on why that is (I'm not sure myself but I think as Blair's spin doctor his take would interesting).

Add to that the "I can't vote for a government-in-waiting" leftie folks going Green, and I am worried this won't be nearly as delicious a Tory collapse as they'd deserve.

Maybe. There's been several MRPs done - and I struggle with Reform winning three MPs - but this one was run by Chris Hanretty who is the expert on these (again pre-Farage jumping in):

Survation.
@Survation
NEW: Our first MRP of the 2024 General Election

Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority

LAB 487
CON 71
LD 43
SNP 26
RFM 3
PC 2

30,044 interviews conducted online and on the phone
Fwk 22 May - 2 June

Conducted on behalf of @BestForBritain

I'm fully behind a Ming vase strategy but don't think much has changed from where we were before an election was called.

[Sheilbh]

First poll post-Farage announcing he's running in Clacton - and Reform are 2 points behind the Tories. This is a little confusing because there's been a methodology change, which YouGov explained and did a bit of a comparison - on their old methodology, Reform are now level with the Tories:


Keir Starmer: Britain's Chretien?

Edit: Two other thoughts on this - it'll be really really interesting to see how this develops and in particular what the Tories do when the panic kicks in. Given that the non-panicked bit of the election has been fairly desperate, I'm not sure quite what panic will look like. And consistently over this parliament as Tories try to secure their right flank they lose probably more votes on their left to Labour and the Lib Dems.

Other thought is that there is a theory of British politics (which I don't totally agree with) that the 20th century was a progressive century with conservative governments because the "progressive" vote was split across Labour and the Liberals (then SDP and Lib Dems). Again it'll be interesting to see what that looks like if the right is split.

[Valmy]

What exactly is the Reform platform?