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The Off Topic Topic

Started by Korea, March 10, 2009, 06:24:26 AM

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DGuller

Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2017, 05:14:13 AM
Are zero hours contracts a thing in America?

Probably fair to say the decline is not all down to number fudging but to say it is nothing to do with that is even more wrong.
No, it is correct to say it has nothing to do with it. 

There are multiple unemployment measures in the US, the headline number is only one of them.  There is also a number that includes people working part-time only because they're forced, or people who don't look for jobs because they gave up.  It's not published, because it makes the government look bad it never tells a different story.  The different rates all move in lockstep, which wouldn't be happening if the fudging theory were true.

What always happens is that people interested in making the numbers look worse always go "wait a minute, the real unemployment rate is twice as high, look at U-6".  Yes, that's true, but it was twice as high during the good old days as well, it's always twice as high.

grumbler

Labor Participation Rate does change over time, and it is published. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

DGuller

#62192
Quote from: grumbler on May 06, 2017, 11:23:46 AM
Labor Participation Rate does change over time, and it is published. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Yes, it does, but it changes for many reasons, many of them having little to do with the job market.  The degree to which is changes due to the job market is captured in the more relevant U-6 statistic.

And by not published, I meant it's not in the headlines.  U-6 is just as official as U-3 and can be easily looked up on BLS site.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2017, 05:14:13 AM
Are zero hours contracts a thing in America?

There are plenty of part time jobs in the US, and they typically don't involve a contract. 

grumbler

Quote from: DGuller on May 06, 2017, 11:29:39 AM
Quote from: grumbler on May 06, 2017, 11:23:46 AM
Labor Participation Rate does change over time, and it is published. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Yes, it does, but it changes for many reasons, many of them having little to do with the job market.  The degree to which is changes due to the job market is captured in the more relevant U-6 statistic.

And by not published, I meant it's not in the headlines.  U-6 is just as official as U-3 and can be easily looked up on BLS site.

Okay, I understand what you are saying.  Now that I have found out more about U-6, I agree that there is a strong argument that U-6 (since it includes U-3) is a better measurement of actual unemployment.  As you say, it doesn't look as good, though.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

CountDeMoney

So what's the executive summary of the point you are trying to make about the unemployment numbers, DG?  Or are you being autistic for the sake of being autistic

DGuller

Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 06, 2017, 12:35:46 PM
So what's the executive summary of the point you are trying to make about the unemployment numbers, DG?  Or are you being autistic for the sake of being autistic
The point is that they are far less misleading than people think.  If the numbers are good, the news is good, regardless of how much you don't want it to be that way.

CountDeMoney

Quote from: DGuller on May 06, 2017, 03:30:09 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 06, 2017, 12:35:46 PM
So what's the executive summary of the point you are trying to make about the unemployment numbers, DG?  Or are you being autistic for the sake of being autistic
The point is that they are far less misleading than people think.  If the numbers are good, the news is good, regardless of how much you don't want it to be that way.

Are the numbers good from your perspective, Rain Man?

DGuller

Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 06, 2017, 03:32:51 PM
Quote from: DGuller on May 06, 2017, 03:30:09 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 06, 2017, 12:35:46 PM
So what's the executive summary of the point you are trying to make about the unemployment numbers, DG?  Or are you being autistic for the sake of being autistic
The point is that they are far less misleading than people think.  If the numbers are good, the news is good, regardless of how much you don't want it to be that way.

Are the numbers good from your perspective, Rain Man?
Yes, they are, they're close to as good as they can ever get.  Whether it's sustainable or whether we're about to crash into another recession is a different question entirely.

dps

Quote from: Tyr on May 06, 2017, 05:14:13 AM
Are zero hours contracts a thing in America?

Job contracts are barely a thing in America.  The vast majority of workers don't have any formal employment contracts;  usually they just apply to unionized jobs (which are what, 12% of all jobs in America?).

Admiral Yi

Quote from: dps on May 06, 2017, 04:38:01 PM
Job contracts are barely a thing in America.  The vast majority of workers don't have any formal employment contracts;  usually they just apply to unionized jobs (which are what, 12% of all jobs in America?).

Yup.  The closest thing to a contract most of us will see is an employment handbook, which lays out what they can fire you for.

CountDeMoney

I have a labor hour contract. :mellow:

CountDeMoney

It already had Yi's cum stains all over it, so it could stand up straight.

derspiess

Quote from: CountDeMoney on May 06, 2017, 05:26:27 PM
I have a labor hour contract. :mellow:

Ditto. Solidarität, mein Bruder.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

CountDeMoney