Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Valmy]

What exactly is the peace proposal?

[mongers]

What exactly is the peace proposal?

Trump waves a piece of paper:

"Peace in our time"

[Jacob]

What exactly is the peace proposal?

As I understand it, it's basically "just stop figthing".

I haven't seen it listed out, so obviously it's just my understanding of what I've seen in the media but I believe it's something like:

• No more fighting
• Russia keeps the occupied territories
• No NATO membership for Ukraine
• Weak security guarantees, provided by Europe and not backstopped by the US (potentially not including European troops being deployed)
• Some sort of lucrative access to Ukrainian resources for yet to be named Trump cronies

It's unclear what would happen to Russian territory occupied by Ukraine, but I'm assuming it'd be returned to Russia.

The main point of discussion at this point seems to me to be about how fast and how severely the US is going to abandon Europe. Maybe it's just a threat to get compliance on the above points, maybe it's going to happen no matter what.

[Jacob]

What exactly is the peace proposal?

Trump waves a piece of paper:

"Peace in our time"

I think the proposal is freeze the conflict as it is now (more or less) and remove sanctions on Russia, and the main point of bargaining is "how much do we threaten/ hurt Europe to get buy in" and "what pressure can we put on Ukraine to get them to accept this."

[Valmy]

The whole NATO membership thing is just so stupid. That was never in the cards before Russia invaded.

That would almost be acceptable if it allowed European troops and Ukraine to join some other kind of European security agreement. But I have a feeling the idea is for Ukraine to be "neutral" or basically a Russian puppet.

But the US should get nothing as far as mineral rights if it doesn't get any territory returned to Ukraine.

[Razgovory]

Not really, I may get thrown out of my apartment today.  The floor leaks and  they can't fix it so they may end up blaming me so they don't have to pay for it.

Sorry to hear that. 

Thank you for your concern.  They inspected my apartment today and haven't kicked me out yet.  Not sure what they are going to do, they asked me to submit another work order.

[crazy canuck]

Not really, I may get thrown out of my apartment today.  The floor leaks and  they can't fix it so they may end up blaming me so they don't have to pay for it.

Sorry to hear that. 

Thank you for your concern.  They inspected my apartment today and haven't kicked me out yet.  Not sure what they are going to do, they asked me to submit another work order.

I don't understand why it is your responsibility - but hopefully it all gets resolved soon. 

[Valmy]

Yeah when I manage my mother's rental properties we are constantly paying big money to fix stuff.

And geez I would never kick out a tenant unless they really fuck up. A tenant who pays their rent is a treasure to be savored.

[Sheilbh]

Macron pushing for increasing the French defence budget not necessarily to 5% basically saying "we don't know if that's the right figure" but it might be - which is bold (very Macron) and a good idea.

But France has very challenging budget politics right now because their deficit is too big for the Eurozone rules and they've had to start an austerity program. The politics will be difficult but things may have clarified.

And striking in terms of who's going to DC to lobby Trump. Duda from Poland who are already at 5%, Starmer who is committing to an increase (I think too low) which he's already been discussing with and getting positive signs from Trump's team and then Macron. The message is pretty clear.

[Jacob]

Denmark has also committed to a big increase, though Denmark's probably not the best country to go to Washington right now.