Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

On the flags business....
The inevitable happens as a 'colourful' and 'well known' football hooligan falls off a lamppost.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/well-known-bristol-football-fan-10699651

I think I might do something I never expected and vote Green in the local elections. Though at the same time I've never felt more ick about a Green leader.

It comes and goes with me. Sometimes I hear him and I'm definitely like "Yes, this is what we need, exactly", other times....I can sense an uncanny valley. Clearly a politician and playing that game but trying to sound real and coming across.....other.

As I say though I support him for his impact on others. I'm already on board with the left-green worldview.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It seems that he was a painter and decorator by trade; which is close, but with the name Paul Lumber he really should have trained to be a plumber.

Re his accident; I'm surprised that a painter and decorator was the first to have a fatal accident, as they often work on ladders anyway. Anyway, RIP Mr Lumber, I'm sorry that you lost your life for such a silly thing.

[Valmy]

I think this is an example, which I've mentioned to Raz before, of a lot of "identity politics" not being driven by the left but by the centre left.

Yeah. This is an easy way to appear progressive even if you actually have center-right politics in other respects. And better it rarely requires you to actually pass any laws.

[Sheilbh]

In fairness I wouldn't describe her as centre-right, she's solidly soft left and as I say in other ways quite an interesting MP. It's partly why I'm disappointed. But also just such a pathetic argument.

Few things that caught my eye recently.

I saw that the old Talking Politics team got together to talk British and European politics again so obviously I listened (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-the-uk-became-ungovernable/id1802535276?i=1000740284861). It's worth a listen - I like David Runciman and Helen Thompson a lot. But I was taken aback at just how coruscating they are of Starmer and Reeves - it makes me feel like my view has perhaps been too generous to them. Particularly struck that in my query of whether Starmer is very naive or just a very cynical liar, they clearly think the latter - also the description Runciman has of Starmer personally (presumably from senior people) is brutal.

Also saw some stuff on Reform - someone leaked their training for candidates in London for the council elections. What was really striking was that an awful lot of it would basically be not a million miles from the Lib Dem strategy for local elections. It's another sign of them professionalising/actually trying to build a party. Although interesting story that their canvassing etc strategy is quite different/distinctive. Also leaking today is Labour's membership numbers which is done to beloe 250,000 - that makes Reform the biggest party in the country on over 260,000 (Greens on about 180,000, Tories on about 125,000 and Lib Dems on 85,000).

Separately from Ben Ansell who's a political scientist at Oxford a really fascinating (if difficult to read) chart:


Broadly it is breaking down each party's vote (with party colours) by education - this is then mapped onto cultural and economic questions like the classic political quadrant thing.

So what's interesting is that the educational divide on Britain's left is "vertical". It's cultural. Lower education groups are more socially conservative than their fellow voters with higher education. That's true for Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters - interestingly it's also true for the "don't knows".

By contrast the educational divide on the right is economic. There is some verticality/a slight slope. But the bigger divide is that lower education voters are more left-wing, while higher education voters are more right-wing.

I'm not fully sure what this means or might mean - but it's really interesting. The obvious thing is that it probably helps explain "how painful is it to talk about this issue". The right are happier talking about culture war stuff because they broadly agree on it; Labour's happy place is talking about the NHS and tax/spend because they broadly agree on it.

I also think it sort of goes to one of the reasons I think Badenoch is actually doing okay - and is a vastly better option for the Tories than Jenrick. Because there's not much variation with Reform voters (or Tory voters) on "cultural" issues - but there is on economics. It probably also makes sense for Labour to heighten Reform's economic tensions (although this would require Labour to work out what it's own message is... )

[Admiral Yi]

I think this is an example, which I've mentioned to Raz before, of a lot of "identity politics" not being driven by the left but by the centre left.

Please elaborate.

[Valmy]

I think this is an example, which I've mentioned to Raz before, of a lot of "identity politics" not being driven by the left but by the centre left.

Please elaborate.

How often does Bernie Sanders mention being a jew? Usually it is the centrist Democrats who are like "The first XXX to be XXX! Look at our progress!" I used to joke that if they were around in the 1850s they would be celebrating the first trans plantation owner without actually doing anything to end slavery.