Thaw in US - Cuba relations

[Berkut]

Russia is still in the Crimea.  When do we lift those sanctions?

(Marco Rubio's point.)

When we decide they don't work for whatever goal we are trying to achieve, of course.

How is that even a difficult question?

[viper37]

Why?

Why should we require them to make some token reform that *we* approve of in order to treat them like many other countries we deal with all the time?

Most of the world seemed to think that was a hunky dory way of dealing with Myanmar.

You have normal relationships with Saudi Arabia, not exactly a democracy, not exactly in the top 10 for human rights respect either.  Same for China, and many former Soviet Republic where you have military bases.

[derspiess]

Personally, I have faith that our system is better, and that in fact economic engagement, and more importantly cultural engagement wins out in the end. Our way is the better way, and the more we allow people to see that, the more the inevitable forces involved will push more of the world into our system, rather than away from it. The examples of this happening are myriad, and the examples where it has not worked are all "exceptions that prove the rule" in that it requires some kind of outside force to counter act it, or an active and extreme internal force to reject it.

Is China just a really, really, really big exception, then?  Because the exact same argument was made in favor of granting MFN status in the 90s. 

[Admiral Yi]

You have normal relationships with Saudi Arabia, not exactly a democracy, not exactly in the top 10 for human rights respect either.  Same for China, and many former Soviet Republic where you have military bases.

I'm aware of those.  Yet as I mentioned, there are cases in which we have punished countries with sanctions for actions similar or identical to what Cuba does.  Were those misguided?

Or, as I'm beginning to suspect, does it all depend on international popularity?

[Gups]

This won't work, either.  Economic engagement will help prop up the regime. 

But keep holding your breath.

Maybe, maybe not.

Personally, I have faith that our system is better, and that in fact economic engagement, and more importantly cultural engagement wins out in the end. Our way is the better way, and the more we allow people to see that, the more the inevitable forces involved will push more of the world into our system, rather than away from it. The examples of this happening are myriad, and the examples where it has not worked are all "exceptions that prove the rule" in that it requires some kind of outside force to counter act it, or an active and extreme internal force to reject it.

But that isn't even the point - the point is that you say this won't work. Well, maybe you are right, and maybe you are wrong. Hard to say for sure.

What we do know for sure is that what we have been doing for the last 2+ generations has NOT worked. That data point we can be quite certain about.

At the very least, the Castros will not be able to use the policy to excuse Cuba's dismal economic performance.

[Josephus]

It's not anti-Americanism that makes me lament the future of my Cuba trips. It is just nice to find a place in the world that lacks Starbucks, McDonalds and that Sr. Frog place.

I've never been, but the last couple of people I've talked to who went to Cuba (being my parents, and a guy I curl with) made even the western resorts seem kind of run down and shabby.

Some people whinge. There are crappy hotels in Canada too. The resorts I go to in Cuba compare well with similar ones in Mexico.

There is no difference between a Riu or Melia in Varadero or Cancun.

[Josephus]

This won't work, either.  Economic engagement will help prop up the regime. 

But keep holding your breath.

Maybe, maybe not.

Personally, I have faith that our system is better, and that in fact economic engagement, and more importantly cultural engagement wins out in the end. Our way is the better way, and the more we allow people to see that, the more the inevitable forces involved will push more of the world into our system, rather than away from it. The examples of this happening are myriad, and the examples where it has not worked are all "exceptions that prove the rule" in that it requires some kind of outside force to counter act it, or an active and extreme internal force to reject it.

But that isn't even the point - the point is that you say this won't work. Well, maybe you are right, and maybe you are wrong. Hard to say for sure.

What we do know for sure is that what we have been doing for the last 2+ generations has NOT worked. That data point we can be quite certain about.

At the very least, the Castros will not be able to use the policy to excuse Cuba's dismal economic performance.

I think the embargo still holds for now though

[Barrister]

Yup - the embargo itself is due to Helms-Burton, and would have to be repealed by Congress to end.

Obama is taking steps to normalize diplomatic relations, which doesn't require congressional approval.

[Admiral Yi]

Yup - the embargo itself is due to Helms-Burton, and would have to be repealed by Congress to end.

Obama is taking steps to normalize diplomatic relations, which doesn't require congressional approval.

I thought Helms-Burton was the legislation that extended criminal penalties to non-US persons who violate the embargo, not the embargo itself.

[Berkut]

Personally, I have faith that our system is better, and that in fact economic engagement, and more importantly cultural engagement wins out in the end. Our way is the better way, and the more we allow people to see that, the more the inevitable forces involved will push more of the world into our system, rather than away from it. The examples of this happening are myriad, and the examples where it has not worked are all "exceptions that prove the rule" in that it requires some kind of outside force to counter act it, or an active and extreme internal force to reject it.

Is China just a really, really, really big exception, then?  Because the exact same argument was made in favor of granting MFN status in the 90s. 

So you have a single example to show that it isn't some kind of panacea, to hold up against 60 years of failure? I think I win that one...

Also, China is vastly more free now than it was in the past. So your "exception" isn't really an exception at all.

[Berkut]

You have normal relationships with Saudi Arabia, not exactly a democracy, not exactly in the top 10 for human rights respect either.  Same for China, and many former Soviet Republic where you have military bases.

I'm aware of those.  Yet as I mentioned, there are cases in which we have punished countries with sanctions for actions similar or identical to what Cuba does.  Were those misguided?

Or, as I'm beginning to suspect, does it all depend on international popularity?

Obviously sanctions and international relations are never going to be one size fits all.

If you can name me another country where we have used sanctions in a fashion similar to what we have done for Cuba for over half a century, and we can reasonably conclude that the effect of those sanctions have been an abject failure to reach the objectives intended, I can promise you that I will fully support stopping those as well.

[Barrister]

Yup - the embargo itself is due to Helms-Burton, and would have to be repealed by Congress to end.

Obama is taking steps to normalize diplomatic relations, which doesn't require congressional approval.

I thought Helms-Burton was the legislation that extended criminal penalties to non-US persons who violate the embargo, not the embargo itself.

I dunno.  The reporting I've read says that the embargo can't be lifted because of Helms-Burton.

[CountDeMoney]

Why is any of our fucking business?  Yeah, democracy is nice, but what in the world is the sense of demanding it just so that we stop doing the stupid thing?

I'm not a huge neocon these days, but Cuban citizens are our neighbors and brothers.  I don't like seeing them oppressed.

It's a shame that China isn't 90 miles from our shores, or people would be just as energized.  Those poor, oppressed Chinese.

[Jacob]

This is... heh... so... I have a friend, on FB. She's the younger sister of a girl I hung out with maybe ten years ago. I hung out with the sister too, which is why we're FB friends. Nice girls, haven't seen them for years but we're connected in that FB way.

Anyhow, this girl is all into radical stuff, anti-war things, etc. She protests for Palestine, she protests against Canada's involvement in the US imperialist wars, she protests for or against all of it, basically, and sits on committees and organizes lectures and all that stuff.

One of the things she participates in is some sort of "Free the Cuban Five" committee here in Vancouver. And checking FB, I see posts from her and her friends about how awesome it is that they're now actually freed. Okay, sure. But the comments are all full of stuff congratulating the members of the Vancouver protest group for the fruits of their labour which is... well... just a little silly.

[CountDeMoney]

At the very least, the Castros will not be able to use the policy to excuse Cuba's dismal economic performance.

Yeah, because all those other Caribbean nations are blowing the doors of the world economy.  There's only so much you can do with large sandbars beyond tourism, a handful of tropical staples and pitching prospects.