Scottish Independence

[viper37]

10 days to save the Union.   


How do you fight this, can you even? :

I think it's too late.  You should have acted 10 years ago.  Even if the NO wins, the division will be profound and there will be resentment toward England from the Scots.  Scottish identity and feeling of difference with the other British will only increase.  Even more once they realize the false promises that were made to them during the campaign by the NO side.

[Zoupa]

BB I would contend there is more in common culturally between an Oregonian and an Alabaman than between you and me.

En commencant par la langue.

[The Minsky Moment]

I get that it is natural to view all problems through the prism of one's own experience, but it isn't very enlightening.  Scotland/UK is not Québec/Canada, or Hungary/AH Empire, or Flanders/Belgium, or whatever.  Each case is different.

The Scots may have very good reason to want independence, I am not in a position to say much on that.  What is interesting is that the Yes case seems to making certain questionable assumptions or sloppy arguments on pretty vital issues, like currency.  Let's assume a future independent Scotland in the EU and a rump Britain that exits - that is actually a pretty plausible outcome a few years out if Yes wins.  Would it really make sense for Scotland as an EU member to use a currency run by a country outside the EU?

[Malthus]

I get that it is natural to view all problems through the prism of one's own experience, but it isn't very enlightening.  Scotland/UK is not Québec/Canada, or Hungary/AH Empire, or Flanders/Belgium, or whatever.  Each case is different.

The Scots may have very good reason to want independence, I am not in a position to say much on that.  What is interesting is that the Yes case seems to making certain questionable assumptions or sloppy arguments on pretty vital issues, like currency.  Let's assume a future independent Scotland in the EU and a rump Britain that exits - that is actually a pretty plausible outcome a few years out if Yes wins.  Would it really make sense for Scotland as an EU member to use a currency run by a country outside the EU?

My guess is that the actual, practical economic and political issues aren't really the point (though a case can certainly be made that they ought to be). The appeals are to emotion, and not reason; I was serious about this being really "about" the poetry of Robbie Burns. Hence, a certain sloppiness on the practicalities of a "yes" outcome - these aren't really the issues that are driving the yes vote. 

[Barrister]

I get that it is natural to view all problems through the prism of one's own experience, but it isn't very enlightening.  Scotland/UK is not Québec/Canada, or Hungary/AH Empire, or Flanders/Belgium, or whatever.  Each case is different.

I dunno man - for years now this has reminded me very strongly of the Quebec independence debate, and this one appears to be coming down to a mirror of the 1995 referendum (which saw the Yes side miles behind to start, but seeing a huge surge in the dying days).

[mongers]

10 days to save the Union.   


How do you fight this, can you even? :

By pointing out that it guarantees Tory rule to the south for the forseeable future, and the likely exit from the EU of independent Scotland's most important economic partner.
To think that won't impact Scotland is bonkers. 
Are these the best arguments "Yes" has?  Seems incredibly poorly thought through.

Most Scots wouldn't be bothered by that, which is incidentally my principle concern and some might even take pleasure in it.

I don't think a political argument needs to be logical or sound, it just needs to be strong enough to move people, primarily on an emotional level, to get them to change their vote. 

I think history shows plenty of poorly thought through arguments have won at the ballot box. 

[viper37]

But whatever - knock yourselves out. I wish one of them would succeed, if for no other reason than watching it crash and burn might make the other STFU already with their constant whining.

Czechs don't seem worst than they were.  Slovakia had a rough patch getting out of communism but seems better of today than they were before.
I'm not sure about Kosovo, but I doubt it can be worst than in Yugoslavia.  Or Serbian domination.

Incidentally, can you name one failed country, following democratically attained independance, who chose to rejoin the motherland?

[The Minsky Moment]

First, it is possible to argue that an independent Quebec and Scotland would be economically better off.  Primarily by having control over their own currency and central bank they would be able to seek exchange rates and interests rates that would better reflect their own local economy.

Possibly.  Except of course that the Scots apparently want to keep sterling and thus cancel out this advantage.

Also a small country with its own currency has more flexibility but is also at risk for instability and runs; this is one reason the Euro was taken up by many of the smaller EU countries.

The banking and insurance industries are quite big in Scotland.  But this is highly mobile capital.  One possibility is that a big chunk leaves Scotland, which isn't so great.  Another possibility is that it stays, maybe even grows.  But then Scotland starts to look a bit like a bigger version of Iceland . . .

[The Minsky Moment]

Incidentally, can you name one failed country, following independance, who chose to rejoin the motherland?

Other than Scotland?

[Barrister]

Incidentally, can you name one failed country, following independance, who chose to rejoin the motherland?

East Germany.

Now I don't think that an independent Quebec, or an independent Scotland, would ever "crash and burn".  They'd still be developed first world nations with well-educated workforces.  But I do have concerns that economically they would lag behind the countries they are leaving behind - that standards of living in either country would be lower than if they'd stayed with the greater political entity.

[Barrister]

First, it is possible to argue that an independent Quebec and Scotland would be economically better off.  Primarily by having control over their own currency and central bank they would be able to seek exchange rates and interests rates that would better reflect their own local economy.

Possibly.  Except of course that the Scots apparently want to keep sterling and thus cancel out this advantage.

It's curious that you would cut out the exact portion of my post that discussed that...

[Razgovory]

But whatever - knock yourselves out. I wish one of them would succeed, if for no other reason than watching it crash and burn might make the other STFU already with their constant whining.

Czechs don't seem worst than they were.  Slovakia had a rough patch getting out of communism but seems better of today than they were before.
I'm not sure about Kosovo, but I doubt it can be worst than in Yugoslavia.  Or Serbian domination.

Incidentally, can you name one failed country, following democratically attained independance, who chose to rejoin the motherland?

I can only think of handful of countries that democratically attained independence.  It's an odd requirement.

[Caliga]

No, and I'd also vote No.

If the Scots promised to draw and quarter Mel Gibson and have him should "FREEDOM!" during the execution if they won, though, I may be persuaded to change my vote.

[Syt]

East Germany.

Did they ever vote on the issue in the first place?

If they didn't like it they could have left.

[viper37]

I can only think of handful of countries that democratically attained independence.  It's an odd requirement.

doesn't really count when you're invaded and forced to secede.