Massive use of chemical weapons in Syria, 1,429 killed including 426 children

[Malthus]

It's the "Don't let your mouth write a check that your ass can't Cash" school of diplomacy.   

[derspiess]

Of course there is.  Both Assad and his principle sponsor have publicly committed to a process that will prevent their use.  Assad has shown that he can be deterred by credible threats.

I don't think most people consider those commitments credible.

They seem to do the trick for Yi

[Admiral Yi]

I don't think most people consider those commitments credible.

That's fine.  I would however like to point out that Putin has not been in the habit of making public statements and later pretending he didn't.  Russia is a fooked up country but it's not North Korea.  Probably even more than the US Russia needs to safeguard the credibility of its threats and promises.

So now we're in a position where all the parties have agreed, or are at least paying lip service to, the notion that Syria should not use chems and that their word is not good enough.

[Berkut]

It's the "Don't let your mouth write a check that your ass can't Cash" school of diplomacy.   

On the other hand, when he made that threat, nobody even thought twice about it. Nobody was all "ZOMG! TEH PREZ TOTALLY COMMITTED US TO THIS NEW POLICY!!!!".

This has been a long standing foreign policy standpoint of the West for a very long time. I cannot fault Obama for making the threat, since it was not even a new threat. It was a standard threat that has, in my view, always been there.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think most people consider those commitments credible.

That's fine.  I would however like to point out that Putin has not been in the habit of making public statements and later pretending he didn't. 

Russia's first position was that the Rebels used the chemical weapons

[Admiral Yi]

@Throbby:

That's not true.  I thought it was retarded the second it came out of his mouth.

[crazy canuck]

This has been a long standing foreign policy standpoint of the West for a very long time. I cannot fault Obama for making the threat, since it was not even a new threat. It was a standard threat that has, in my view, always been there.

Agreed.  What is new is the dithering.  Now anyone who wishes to use chemical weapons has learned what the real risk might be.

[Malthus]

It's the "Don't let your mouth write a check that your ass can't Cash" school of diplomacy.   

On the other hand, when he made that threat, nobody even thought twice about it. Nobody was all "ZOMG! TEH PREZ TOTALLY COMMITTED US TO THIS NEW POLICY!!!!".

This has been a long standing foreign policy standpoint of the West for a very long time. I cannot fault Obama for making the threat, since it was not even a new threat. It was a standard threat that has, in my view, always been there.

As I pointed out above, his mistake was in assuming he needed an international consensus to make good on the threat, without knowing in advance that he had it. He should either have had the consensus lined up, known he was going ahead without consensus if necessary, or not made the threat.

[Admiral Yi]

Russia's first position was that the Rebels used the chemical weapons

And?

[crazy canuck]

Russia's first position was that the Rebels used the chemical weapons

And?

I see, Putin is not the only one that can pretend he didnt say something.

[Admiral Yi]

I see, Putin is not the only one that can pretend he didnt say something.

Your conclusion does not follow.  His proposal was not dependent on an admission that Assad has already used chems.

[crazy canuck]

I see, Putin is not the only one that can pretend he didnt say something.

Your conclusion does not follow.  His proposal was not dependent on an admission that Assad has already used chems.

Fair enough.  But given your logic, do you still think that the bad guy peed his pants and ran off?  You now seem to suggest that Russia gets to continue to deny any use of chemical weapons while make vague overtures of some kind of oversight.  What are the chances that the next time Syria uses chemical weapons Russia simply says "see I told you it was the Rebels.  All the Syrian chemical weapons have been accounted for"

Yep, this is definitely one where someone is peeing their pants and it aint the Syrian leadership.

[Viking]

I'm pretty sure most of us thought the original threat was pretty silly since we didn't think he was going to follow through. Making the threat tied his hands in case Assad called his bluff, Assad did call his bluff and since then Obama has been dithering.

BTW, Kerry should be fired for making up policy on the fly and giving Assad and Putin the out they needed to distract from the fact that ASSAD GASSED A RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD IN DAMASCUS.

[Admiral Yi]

What are the chances that the next time Syria uses chemical weapons Russia simply says "see I told you it was the Rebels.  All the Syrian chemical weapons have been accounted for"

Nobody is going to accept a monitoring regime that is dependent on Russian good faith.

[Berkut]

I'm pretty sure most of us thought the original threat was pretty silly since we didn't think he was going to follow through.

I honestly must just be a bit naive, because I never even considered that a US president would not follow through on such a threat.