Betting Pool on Senate Votes to Convict

[PJL]

I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

Much like the Wermacht generals suddenly saying Hitler was mad in all their memoirs when Hitler was safely out of the picture.

[Sheilbh]

I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

Yeah and I think the fact he lost changes the calculation for Trumpier politicians because I've no doubt Cruz and Hawley would oppose this, but I imagine they'd be pretty happy if Trump was forbidden from running in 2024. If they were looking to pick up his mantle after two terms I suspect they'd be far more vocal in trying to block any conviction.

[alfred russel]

I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

McConnell has never seemed enamored with Trumpism as an electoral strategy. In 2016, before the election, he was trying to separate Senate Republicans from Trump -- probably because he expected Trump to go down in flames. He never handed Trump legislative victories when Trump had unique policy initiatives that were distinct from long time republican ones--such as wall funding. He was all about Trump's policies when they did--tax cuts and corporate tax reform.

From a political point of view, the battles in the next congress are going to be won or lost whether he can keep the 4-5 most liberal republicans in line and get a defector from the 4-5 most conservative democrats. To the extent his personal influence matters, right now it is to his benefit to be moderate.

[Sheilbh]

McConnell has never seemed enamored with Trumpism as an electoral strategy. In 2016, before the election, he was trying to separate Senate Republicans from Trump -- probably because he expected Trump to go down in flames. He never handed Trump legislative victories when Trump had unique policy initiatives that were distinct from long time republican ones--such as wall funding. He was all about Trump's policies when they did--tax cuts and corporate tax reform.

And of course he did the same in 2020 - I remember reading the line from McConnell in the summer/early autumn that Republicans in tough races should feel free to ditch the President as much as they want if that helped.

From a political point of view, the battles in the next congress are going to be won or lost whether he can keep the 4-5 most liberal republicans in line and get a defector from the 4-5 most conservative democrats. To the extent his personal influence matters, right now it is to his benefit to be moderate.

This is another key point - and particularly relevant here is that while he's not a moderate, a key vote McConnell needs to keep is Romney who broke ranks on the last impeachment, has issued very strong statements on Trump and I feel will almost certainly vote for impeachment this time round too. Romney's not a moderate, but he's got his own gravitas as a former Presidential candidate, he's not up for re-election for a while, he's not in a very Trumpy state (comparatively) and he's very popular in that state - so it would seem risky if the leadership immediately disappointed him.

That's also why I think now they'll be pretty cooperative over nominations.

[Razgovory]

I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

McConnell is certainly the the most cynical and probably the smartest making him a fairly successful majority leader.  I just wish that it wasn't so destructive.  The blocking of all judges under Obama was certainly effective in the short term, but I'm no longer certain the US will be a democracy 10 years from now.

[Sheilbh]

Couldn't have got this more wrong

[crazy canuck]

GOP still afraid of Trump.  Probably good news for the Dems.

[11B4V]

54 the are cowards.

[Caliga]

GOP still afraid of Trump.  Probably good news for the Dems.

I think they're afraid he will go through with his threat to form a third party, thereby fatally dividing the conservative vote and handing lasting power to the Democrats.

[HVC]

GOP still afraid of Trump.  Probably good news for the Dems.

I think they're afraid he will go through with his threat to form a third party, thereby fatally dividing the conservative vote and handing lasting power to the Democrats.

If they're afraid of a third party isn't impeachment the best bet? Cutoff his attempts to get elected.

[Caliga]

But conviction and vote to bar from future office might inflame his followers and empower him further... banning him won't prevent Don Jr or Ivanka from running.

[viper37]

But conviction and vote to bar from future office might inflame his followers and empower him further... banning him won't prevent Don Jr or Ivanka from running.

One Trump at a time.

[Eddie Teach]

Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.

[Caliga]

Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.

Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle?  IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.

[Admiral Yi]

Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle?  IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.

From the very first poll he was a legitimate threat.  That's why I caucused for Rubio in 16.