News:

And we're back!

Main Menu

Betting Pool on Senate Votes to Convict

Started by Admiral Yi, January 13, 2021, 09:32:10 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

PJL

Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

Much like the Wermacht generals suddenly saying Hitler was mad in all their memoirs when Hitler was safely out of the picture.

Sheilbh

Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.
Yeah and I think the fact he lost changes the calculation for Trumpier politicians because I've no doubt Cruz and Hawley would oppose this, but I imagine they'd be pretty happy if Trump was forbidden from running in 2024. If they were looking to pick up his mantle after two terms I suspect they'd be far more vocal in trying to block any conviction.
Let's bomb Russia!

alfred russel

Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

McConnell has never seemed enamored with Trumpism as an electoral strategy. In 2016, before the election, he was trying to separate Senate Republicans from Trump -- probably because he expected Trump to go down in flames. He never handed Trump legislative victories when Trump had unique policy initiatives that were distinct from long time republican ones--such as wall funding. He was all about Trump's policies when they did--tax cuts and corporate tax reform.

From a political point of view, the battles in the next congress are going to be won or lost whether he can keep the 4-5 most liberal republicans in line and get a defector from the 4-5 most conservative democrats. To the extent his personal influence matters, right now it is to his benefit to be moderate.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Sheilbh

Quote from: alfred russel on January 21, 2021, 01:01:48 PM
McConnell has never seemed enamored with Trumpism as an electoral strategy. In 2016, before the election, he was trying to separate Senate Republicans from Trump -- probably because he expected Trump to go down in flames. He never handed Trump legislative victories when Trump had unique policy initiatives that were distinct from long time republican ones--such as wall funding. He was all about Trump's policies when they did--tax cuts and corporate tax reform.
And of course he did the same in 2020 - I remember reading the line from McConnell in the summer/early autumn that Republicans in tough races should feel free to ditch the President as much as they want if that helped.

QuoteFrom a political point of view, the battles in the next congress are going to be won or lost whether he can keep the 4-5 most liberal republicans in line and get a defector from the 4-5 most conservative democrats. To the extent his personal influence matters, right now it is to his benefit to be moderate.
This is another key point - and particularly relevant here is that while he's not a moderate, a key vote McConnell needs to keep is Romney who broke ranks on the last impeachment, has issued very strong statements on Trump and I feel will almost certainly vote for impeachment this time round too. Romney's not a moderate, but he's got his own gravitas as a former Presidential candidate, he's not up for re-election for a while, he's not in a very Trumpy state (comparatively) and he's very popular in that state - so it would seem risky if the leadership immediately disappointed him.

That's also why I think now they'll be pretty cooperative over nominations.
Let's bomb Russia!

Razgovory

Quote from: DGuller on January 20, 2021, 07:13:02 PM
I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.

McConnell is certainly the the most cynical and probably the smartest making him a fairly successful majority leader.  I just wish that it wasn't so destructive.  The blocking of all judges under Obama was certainly effective in the short term, but I'm no longer certain the US will be a democracy 10 years from now.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Sheilbh

Let's bomb Russia!

crazy canuck

GOP still afraid of Trump.  Probably good news for the Dems.

11B4V

"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Caliga

Quote from: crazy canuck on January 26, 2021, 06:47:07 PM
GOP still afraid of Trump.  Probably good news for the Dems.
I think they're afraid he will go through with his threat to form a third party, thereby fatally dividing the conservative vote and handing lasting power to the Democrats.
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

HVC

Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 07:42:30 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on January 26, 2021, 06:47:07 PM
GOP still afraid of Trump.  Probably good news for the Dems.
I think they're afraid he will go through with his threat to form a third party, thereby fatally dividing the conservative vote and handing lasting power to the Democrats.

If they're afraid of a third party isn't impeachment the best bet? Cutoff his attempts to get elected.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Caliga

But conviction and vote to bar from future office might inflame his followers and empower him further... banning him won't prevent Don Jr or Ivanka from running.
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

viper37

Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 07:46:10 PM
But conviction and vote to bar from future office might inflame his followers and empower him further... banning him won't prevent Don Jr or Ivanka from running.
One Trump at a time.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Eddie Teach

Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Caliga

Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 26, 2021, 10:26:06 PM
Don Jr doesn't have his father's talent for demagoguery.
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle?  IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.
0 Ed Anger Disapproval Points

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Caliga on January 26, 2021, 10:50:59 PM
Be honest... would you really have predicted Trump could possibly win the presidency at the start of the 2016 cycle?  IIRC we were all laughing at him, myself included.

From the very first poll he was a legitimate threat.  That's why I caucused for Rubio in 16.