Betting Pool on Senate Votes to Convict

[grumbler]

The Trump impeachment conviction vote will be long forgotten by the 2022 elections.  Those elections will hinge on how the people of Georgia feel about the Biden administration at that point.

[Tonitrus]

Come now, there's a couple other potentially interesting Senate races in play as well.

Not to mention the House.

[Sheilbh]

Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.

[DGuller]

I wonder to what extent McConnell still has power to lead.  Could he himself be sidelined now that he's a lot less useful?

[Sheilbh]

I wonder to what extent McConnell still has power to lead.  Could he himself be sidelined now that he's a lot less useful?

I don't see why his status would've taken a hit - I don't think anyone would be blaming him for losing the Senate. Plus I think he's still a very good fundraiser for other candidates.

[Jacob]

Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.

What did he say today?

[DGuller]

I wonder to what extent McConnell still has power to lead.  Could he himself be sidelined now that he's a lot less useful?

I don't see why his status would've taken a hit - I don't think anyone would be blaming him for losing the Senate. Plus I think he's still a very good fundraiser for other candidates.

He may take a hit because he just doesn't have the power he used to have, whatever the reason, and he seems to be making a move to denounce the Trump faction.  If the cowardly faction of GOP thinks that the Trump faction is still the future, they may not want to listen to what Mitch has to say and will have fewer reasons to force themselves to listen to him.

[crazy canuck]

Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.

What did he say today?

From part of the NYTimes reporting

Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, said on Tuesday that the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 had been "provoked by the president and other powerful people," stating publicly for the first time that he holds President Trump at least partly responsible for the assault.

"The mob was fed lies," Mr. McConnell said, referring to attempts by Mr. Trump to overturn the election based on bogus claims of voter fraud. "They were provoked by the president and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government which they did not like."

[viper37]

Seeing McConnell's lines today I now think it'll be top end of my guess - high 60s-low 70s. Enough to impeach.

What did he say today?

sorry, no link yet, not a direct quote, heard it on tv minutes ago:
"We gather for the first time since criminals invaded the first chamber of government to prevent its people from doing their sworn duty.  A mob incited by lies from the President and other influential people".

So that's the gist of it.

Coming from McConnell, it's huge.

[viper37]

And grilled by CC!

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - it sounds like it's an attempt to pin all of this on Trump (and Trump alone) and to get rid of Trump when he's at his lowest point in terms of popularity (even with Republicans) and can't retaliate either on Twitter or from the Rose Garden. Smart but very cynical politics which is what you'd expect from McConnell.

I could be wrong.

[Maladict]

Yeah - it sounds like it's an attempt to pin all of this on Trump (and Trump alone) and to get rid of Trump when he's at his lowest point in terms of popularity (even with Republicans) and can't retaliate either on Twitter or from the Rose Garden. Smart but very cynical politics which is what you'd expect from McConnell.

I could be wrong.

So Trump gets punished for what he did, and the rift within the republicans widens because the Trumpists won't like this at all. Fine by me.

[viper37]

Yeah - it sounds like it's an attempt to pin all of this on Trump (and Trump alone) and to get rid of Trump when he's at his lowest point in terms of popularity (even with Republicans) and can't retaliate either on Twitter or from the Rose Garden. Smart but very cynical politics which is what you'd expect from McConnell.

I could be wrong.

You could be, but I suspect a lot of non GOP would see it that way too.  He could have been replace by Pence 2 years ago, after his impeachment.  McConnell made sure to kill that, even if his Senate voted to agree on the FBI reports reporting collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.  Everything that happenned is on him as well as Trump.  And he never committed itself to recognize Biden's victory until the electoral college vote, or shortly before, when there was 100% chances Trump would be out of the WH in a few months.

[Sheilbh]

Oh I totally agree. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if McConnell tried to impeach/end Trump now. He got everything he could out of Trump's improbable election victory and now Trump's leaving office with historically bad approval ratings he will now turn on him and try to pin everything on Trump. As I say I think it seems like pretty smart if cynical politics - but that seems like McConnell's trademark.

[DGuller]

I predicted a while ago that once Trump is no longer useful as a politician, he's useful as a monster to denounce for those who rode his coattails.  McConnell, being the smartest and most cynical of the bunch, just got on the train first, but this train is going to fill up.