Betting Pool on Senate Votes to Convict

[Solmyr]

I think 67+ is a real possibility.  It's not out of the question that we'll have another clashes on 17th, this time much bloodier, and also as soon as Trump is completely not relevant, the details of the depths of his depravity will just keep gushing out.  I think a lot of Republican Senators will be shocked to hear about all that.

Shocked, shocked I tell you!

[jimmy olsen]

I assume Trump is being paranoid and throwing stuff to everyone, becuase the alternative, that he legitimately beeds to bribe Shelby for an aquital vote, would indicate that he's in trouble.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyMackReports/status/1349444483314634753

Sources confirm that the decision to move Space Command to Alabama was an override by President Trump and is linked to his current impeachment.

The source told us Trump wants Alabama's Sens/Reps on his side after the US Capitol riot.

[Habbaku]

69

Nice.

[Caliga]

You mean.... Excellent!

[Richard Hakluyt]

55 or 75, depending on McConnell.

I'm thinking along similar lines, 53/54 or landslide if it is decided to dump him.

[Admiral Yi]

FYI on Predictit 67+ votes to convict by 1/29 is going for 24 cents.

[jimmy olsen]

FYI on Predictit 67+ votes to convict by 1/29 is going for 24 cents.

Seems reasonable.

[alfred russel]

I'd bet low on the low side. Putting aside the merits of whether he deserves to be removed from office, the primary practical effect will be to prevent him from running again. A senator with presidential ambitions is going to look like he is voted to remove an opponent. The argument will be raised, "counting all the votes is a little hollow if you choose the candidates". Some democrats may even relish the thought of him continuing to divide the republican party through the 2024 primary season.

[Eddie Teach]

They may relish it, but a no vote will be hard to justify to their voters.

[alfred russel]

They may relish it, but a no vote will be hard to justify to their voters.

You do have a democratic senator from West Virginia and another from Montana. Plus one from Ohio and you will have two from both Georgia and Arizona. Hard to imagine them losing an election because they say, "hey, Trump is a corrupt SOB that has no business being president, but I believe the voters should have the choice." Might even help them.

[celedhring]

Voters made their choice and the GOP wasn't having it, either.

[The Minsky Moment]

They may relish it, but a no vote will be hard to justify to their voters.

You do have a democratic senator from West Virginia and another from Montana. Plus one from Ohio and you will have two from both Georgia and Arizona. Hard to imagine them losing an election because they say, "hey, Trump is a corrupt SOB that has no business being president, but I believe the voters should have the choice." Might even help them.

Tester has gone public and will convict.  Manchin said the  house impeachment was ill advised in timing but yesterday said he would convict.  Sherrod Brown is a safe convict vote.  Sinema has not gone on record but voted to convict last time - she will do the same this time.  There is zero chance the GA senators will not convict - recall how they got in office.

[alfred russel]

Tester has gone public and will convict.  Manchin said the  house impeachment was ill advised in timing but yesterday said he would convict.  Sherrod Brown is a safe convict vote.  Sinema has not gone on record but voted to convict last time - she will do the same this time.  There is zero chance the GA senators will not convict - recall how they got in office.

If so that seems really shortsighted. Warnock for instance is up for reelection in 2 years and has almost zero risk of a primary challenge. He got into office in a Senate runoff after the democratic senate candidates got less votes than republicans in the general election, but republican turnout was more depressed in the runoff (a possible contributing factor the Trump allegations of voter fraud in Georgia).

[The Minsky Moment]

Not is it not shortsighted, such a betrayal would infuriate his own supporters and suppress their turnout, which was crucial to his victory. 

Voting to convict has no downside in contrast because he has no chance of attracting the remaining die hard Trump voters and they will turnout in whatever numbers they will turnout for 2022 regardless of what Warnock does.

[alfred russel]

Not is it not shortsighted, such a betrayal would infuriate his own supporters and suppress their turnout, which was crucial to his victory. 

Voting to convict has no downside in contrast because he has no chance of attracting the remaining die hard Trump voters and they will turnout in whatever numbers they will turnout for 2022 regardless of what Warnock does.

I think you are wrong. Regarding his own voters, I really doubt they will be especially disillusioned regarding a vote to convict someone already out of office, but in 2022 he isn't going to be the main voting event in Georgia anyway: we have a probable Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams rematch for governor. I really doubt the base is going to avoid showing up to vote for Abrams because Warnock didn't vote to convict Trump.

Warnock was in a field of 20 or so in November, but using Ossoff as the stand in:

In November, he lost to Perdue 49.7% to 47.9%.

In the January run offs, he won 50.4% to 49.6%.

If you look at the vote shifts, the biggest driver was that voters didn't turn out in the rural areas that were Trump's best support (especially the congressional district that elected a QAnon supporter to the House).

Kemp is already very divisive among MAGA nation--Trump has called for him to be jailed. It seems unlikely he is going to be great for MAGA turnout. But to vote against a senator who voted to take away their chance to vote again for their god-emperor in 2024? That might get some turnout.