Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I have no doubt that long term the lib dems as the second party would shift rightwards.
However

1: this won't happen over night. There'll be many years of productivity with the main opposition being fairly centrist with little in the way of right wing disaster capitalism.
2: the tories took many years to reach their current extremes. You'd essentially be resetting the clock by starting again from the centre.

Also, there's that most important of policies that is fundamental to the future of the UK -voting reform. A lib dems temporarily (?) in ascendance are in the majority likely to keep their support for this.

The voters are who the voters are.  They aren't about to change.

Political parties however can change very quickly - and often do.

If we hypothesize a total Tory collapse and the Lib Dems taking over as the main opposition - one of two things happen.  Either the Lib Dems pivot and start sounding very much like tories, or else the Lib boost is short-lived and the Tories (or maybe Reform) come to replace them.

The voters are who the voters are and don't change indeed.
If we pretend left to right is a simple 10 point scale the lib dems currently draw from 4 to 6 and the tories from 6 to 10.
A lib dems who are able to drag in the 7s and 8s leaves the hard right supporting an isolated minority rather than the centre.

Additionally don't forget we aren't talking about a democracy here. Tactical voting is a thing and becoming ever more common.
If you're a 9 and you have a choice between the lib dems or Labour then you're either going to protest vote or vote lib dem to keep labour out.
This is the way labour operate from the other side when they do well.

[Barrister]

I have no doubt that long term the lib dems as the second party would shift rightwards.
However

1: this won't happen over night. There'll be many years of productivity with the main opposition being fairly centrist with little in the way of right wing disaster capitalism.
2: the tories took many years to reach their current extremes. You'd essentially be resetting the clock by starting again from the centre.

Also, there's that most important of policies that is fundamental to the future of the UK -voting reform. A lib dems temporarily (?) in ascendance are in the majority likely to keep their support for this.

The voters are who the voters are.  They aren't about to change.

Political parties however can change very quickly - and often do.

If we hypothesize a total Tory collapse and the Lib Dems taking over as the main opposition - one of two things happen.  Either the Lib Dems pivot and start sounding very much like tories, or else the Lib boost is short-lived and the Tories (or maybe Reform) come to replace them.

The voters are who the voters are and don't change indeed.
If we pretend left to right is a simple 10 point scale the lib dems currently draw from 4 to 6 and the tories from 6 to 10.
A lib dems who are able to drag in the 7s and 8s leaves the hard right supporting an isolated minority rather than the centre.

Additionally don't forget we aren't talking about a democracy here. Tactical voting is a thing and becoming ever more common.
If you're a 9 and you have a choice between the lib dems or Labour then you're either going to protest vote or vote lib dem to keep labour out.
This is the way labour operate from the other side when they do well.

OK so it's way too simplistic, but let's take your example.

The problem is the Tories (and Reform) still exist.

If the Libs are currently a 4-6, they pick up a lot of Tory votes, and they shift to a 5-7 - that still leaves 8-10 being unserved.  Do they hold their nose and vote Lib-Dem to stop Labour?  Maybe some do.  But why wouldn't they just give their vote to the 7-9 Tory party, even if they're not going to win?  And once enough people decide to do that - well now the Tory party does have a chance to win.

[Josquius]

Sure. But the lib dems exist today too. You still get people in the centre who would be a far more natural fit for the lib dems than the other parties voting for their least disliked of the others.

I can't see the tories ever going away completely. Look at the history of the lib dems. But it is very possible the lib dems are able to grab some of the tories with souls and take over the position of party number 2- assuming they play their cards right of course, at current I don't think they are.

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/26/farage-urges-zelenskiy-to-seek-ukraine-peace-deal-with-russia

What's interesting with Farage and Orban is that they really are not at all troubled normally to change course or distance themselves from what they used to say. Yet, when it comes to licking Putin's arse, they are willing to take hits to be able to keep doing it.

[Tamas]

Noticed on my Youtube feed that the Telegraph posted a full Farage speech in Blackpool the whole hour of it, it's well over a 100K views.

He truly is our Trump. People just love him too much or love to hate him too much for the media not to report on each every movement he makes.

I'll really hate the inevitable decade we'll spend with him as PM.

[Sheilbh]

The Telegraph YouTube channel has full speeches from all the party leaders (well Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and SNP).

They have fewer views but that's less than, say, yesterday's video about the violence in Kenya. The video version of their twice weekly (excellent) podcast on Ukraine is also fairly often around 100k - and will be interesting to see how the Telegraph straddles that.

[Josquius]

An actually amusing nutty right satire deepfake which is apparently doing the rounds.

[Sheilbh]

So on Jake's young people meme space thing - and yes I've seen a few Farage mimcraft memes (also Johnson). And saw that Farage's TikTok channel has more engagement than any other politician - or party - in Britain.

(Although worth noting Labour claim they're taking a different strategy on TikTok):

[garbon]

(Although worth noting Labour claim they're taking a different strategy on TikTok):

Cutting.

[Sheilbh]

Labour claim that they're trying to use TikTok's highly curated algorithm. So they've got a lot of very niche content that then points to a broader message.

Farage's TikTok - a "lovely melons" gag, lipsyncing to Eminem and a "my milkshake brings all the...people to the rally" line - is broader.

I thought this was interesting with the Guardian using screen recording with volunteers to see what political content people actually see (rather than just what we know is out there). The thing that struck me is that basically everyone is planning to vote and broadly has views in line with what you'd expect for their demographics based on age, location and description:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/24/five-hours-a-day-on-facebook-how-voters-are-keeping-up-with-the-election

Again it does make me wonder about the impact of social media/political advertising - I work with a lot of online advertising and it's an industry that's riddled with fraud at every stage, with zero trust between any of the parties. 90%+ of the people I know in the industry basically think that basic contextual advertising is as good or better performing than the targeting stuff - but there's no buy-side market for it (largely because the reporting is worse, things that advertisers/agencies have got used to aren't available and it requires a bit more of an inventive selling). So given I marinade in that in my day to day work life I slightly struggle to imagine that the exception is politics where they've cracked the code.

[Sheilbh]

On Labour control-freakery and the most fashionable candidate in the country. They've basically shut down his campaign and moved him to campaign in the West Midlands because he was getting too much attention:

Labour 'not putting up a fight' against Farage in Clacton
Labour officials said to be upset that Jovan Owusu-Nepaul was gaining traction for viral social media posts
Aletha Adu Political correspondent
Wed 26 Jun 2024 19.45 BST
First published on Wed 26 Jun 2024 19.23 BST

Labour has been accused of "not putting up a fight" against Nigel Farage in Clacton after the party's candidate was instructed to leave the constituency after "distracting" from Keir Starmer's campaign.

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, 27, who works for Labour's equalities team, was installed by the party last month to contest the seat, weeks before Farage changed his mind and decided to stand in the Essex constituency.

Owusu-Nepaul has since been "seconded" to the West Midlands, while the local campaign in Clacton said that it had been banned from printing leaflets, blocked from using campaigning software and had access to the campaign's social media overriden, with posts deleted on X.

Labour regards Clacton as an unwinnable seat, with the party gaining just 15% of the vote in 2019, when the Tories won a 24,702 majority.

Members of Clacton's constituency Labour party (CLP) had been expecting a "well planned but low energy" social media campaign.

However, Owusu-Nepaul attracted attention on social media after he was photographed bumping into the Reform UK leader at an opening of a new food truck in Frinton earlier this month, with pictures going viral.

A campaign source said Labour headquarters had been angry with the traction Owusu-Nepaul was getting. "At one point [Jovan] was getting more retweets than Keir Starmer. The officials were furious with him and said he was distracting [from] Starmer's campaign," they said.

The Guardian reported last week that dozens of Labour candidates have been blocked from accessing the party's canvassing systems, which help them drum up support from voters, because they were deemed not to be campaigning enough in target seats.

Tracey Lewis, a Labour activist from Clacton, quit the CLP after Owusu-Nepaul was sent to campaign in the West Midlands.

She said: "I'm a lifelong Labour supporter and will continue to be even though I've quit my place on the CLP, but if they can't put a fight up against Nigel Farage, then who are they fighting for?"

Chris Bee, another member of the local party, said: "Our candidate gets some real traction and with a week-and-a-bit to go they pull him out and will not allow him back into the constituency to fight for a place in this area's most important election in a generation. This is absolutely disgusting on every level."

In a letter to Labour's general secretary, David Evans, seen by the Guardian, Martin Suker, Owusu-Nepaul's election agent said: "Reform UK stands for everything we the Labour party stand against ... and I'm struggling to come to terms that it appears the party doesn't even want to be seen to be putting up a fight.

"Jovan was told [by an official] to never come back to Clacton, and yesterday, was instructed to move to the West Midlands region.

"I'm concerned there will be follow-on questions: members, supporters and more worryingly donators will be both angry and upset that it appears like the party that they have a great hope in isn't doing anything to show a battle front to what many see as a catastrophe not only for Clacton, but for the parliamentary system entirely."

Suker said the local party had requests for new leaflets turned down and access to the canvassing system removed. "Now I have no candidate to put in front of the people for them to see us at least trying to 'Save Clacton'," he added. "This could be very damaging to the party's image."

Labour has been urging candidates to campaign more in target seats and diverting activists away from the Liberal Democrat's priority seats to those where it stands a better chance of winning against the Tories. Clacton activists had been twinned with nearby Colchester.

A Labour party spokesperson said: "We are working hard to deliver as many Labour MPs as possible in the general election and our campaigners are bringing our message of change to people across the country."

It may make some sense although, while constituency polls are notoriously difficult, but Clacton was mixed on whether Labour or Tories are second and the candidate was getting attention. But it's very ruthless prioritisation and I wouldn't be surprised if it was driven by annoyance that he was getting too much attention (you think of the rumours around Mo Mowlam in Blair's government). It is striking it's a young black candidate too - especially after the Abbott debacle.

I've said before but I think there may be some quite unpleasant people round Starmer/in the leadership team - and I'm not sure how much he's aware or in control of them as they're doing internal score settling.

[Josquius]

That's pretty damn shitty. And weird.
Moving campaigners to more favourable seats I get but actual candidates?

And agreed there seems a real shady side to starmers team. Remains to be seen how much it's him vs. people operating with his knowledge vs. People operating behind his back.

There's also the factor highlighted there that farage is exactly the kind of character labour should be vehemently opposing and speaking up against. I fear they may be gambling they hurt the tories more. Which may work out in the short term for labour but could be deadly in the long term for the country.

Though 27. Christ. Didn't realise he was that young. Can't be having him winning and making me feel awful about my failed life.

[Barrister]

It may make some sense although, while constituency polls are notoriously difficult, but Clacton was mixed on whether Labour or Tories are second and the candidate was getting attention. But it's very ruthless prioritisation and I wouldn't be surprised if it was driven by annoyance that he was getting too much attention (you think of the rumours around Mo Mowlam in Blair's government). It is striking it's a young black candidate too - especially after the Abbott debacle.

I've said before but I think there may be some quite unpleasant people round Starmer/in the leadership team - and I'm not sure how much he's aware or in control of them as they're doing internal score settling.

Couple thoughts:

-as long as this candidate isn't generating negative attention then who cares?  Attention is attention.
-hard to have much discipline over local volunteers but poor form for those volunteers to go talking to the media
-part of running an electoin campaign is 100% to focus on winnable seats.  As much as it might feel good to campaign against Farange if you don't think you have a chance, you do the bare minimum to show the flag and focus everything else on winnable seats

[Sheilbh]

Sympathise with all of those points - I think the last point is one of the problems with the Democrats in the US.

Just posting it as a marker really. Although I think it demonstrates a couple of things - I think there is an interesting angle of Starmer's ruthlessness even when it veers into pettiness. Either from him or his team (my suspicion is his team, mainly with his authorisation or ignorance - I'm not sure which is better/worse).

Also I think there is something interesting and not good about Labour and race - particularly at the top of the party. I've not fully thought through what but I think there is a problem there. And I think there's a difference with the Tories. Looking at the way Abbott, Shaheen, Owusu-Nepaul have been treated - but also figures like Dawn Butler or Apsana Begum - I feel like there is something a little unsavoury.

[Josquius]

I'd define the candidate staying in their seat as a pretty clear definition of bare minimum. That he's being taken out drops below that.