Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

There was a lot of bad weather that winter, plenty of transport disruption, which Labour was also blamed for. Then Jim Callaghan came back home from a holiday in the Caribbean and gave a press conference looking all sun-tanned and relaxed...bad mistake 

In a way it was an early example of Davos man because I think he came back from the G7 in the Bahamas - so he'd been working. But it was in the Caribbean and he was photoed having a swim on the beach while the country was going through the winter of discontent. He then returned and said that at the G7 he'd been speaking to lots of foreign leaders and none of them thought Britain was in crisis so we mustn't do the country down - which obviously became the "Crisis? What Crisis?" headline.

Nowadays we'd talk about "understands people like me".

But this really is ancient history at this point and the economy was totally different; for nearly everyone it is not known about or has become folklore.

That's fair.

But I also can't help but think of some echoes - particularly in the role of Tony Benn before he became an avuncular national treasure with a pipe and the Tory right. But also that the other shift impacting Labour at that point was the generational shift in union leaders. In the late sixties/early seventies the union bosses were a group of men who were broadly of the Labour right (often the bulwark of the Labour right) - to such an extent that some were informing MI5 about suspected communists - but who were fundamentally political, they knew how to press their advantage and how to cut a deal. By the late seventies the new generation were coming through who genuinely thought it was basically just one more push to socialism. I think those forces in the Labour party would have made even a second Callaghan term an absolute ordeal - and I'm not sure it's a million miles away from what we'll see in the Tories.

I haven't listend to that but it's not an unusual view but it's certainly disputed by many (e.g. Dominic Sandbrook). I'm not sure that it was that the Tories were viewed as poor managers of the economy rather that they would antagonise the unions. Callaghan also had a huge lead over Thatcher as leader - which he retained during teh election.

Like all counter-factuals, its fundamentally unknowable. If I had to bet I'd say that an October 78 election would have been a draw with nobody getting a majority.

Yeah I incline to the Sandbrook view and I absolutely can't see a landslide. From what I've read from Lord Donoghue who was Wilson and then Callaghan's policy unit head, they sometimes had optimism but they never had confidence in winning (and that goes into the election) which was partly why it wasn't called. Also I think Callaghan's one of the most experienced PMs we've ever had and I think there probably is something to his judgement not to go early.

It's also worth noting that 1979 wasn't a Tory landslide either, that came in 83. It was, however, the first clear and decisive majority since Wilson in the 60s - it did, I think, break the deadlock of the seventies.

I'm also not sure in many ways that it matters. As I say I think there were forces in the Labour party that would have made governing as bad as opposition from 79-83, especially as Callaghan's government had already started moving in the direction of what became Thatcherism (much like the end of detente and Volcker at the Fed starts under Carter, but defines Reagan). I think the decisive event involved Callaghan, but wasn't 1978 or 1979. It was when he torpedoed Barbara Castle's attempt at union reform in the late sixties with "In Place of Strife". Tony Benn demanded an inquest in 1979 on how they lost and Callaghan summed it up as "I'll tell you what happened. We lost the election because people didn't get their dustbins emptied, because commuters were angry about train disruption and because of too much union power. That's about it." But I think he blocked the attempt of a Labour government to deal with "too much union power" on Labour terms in 1969 - having failed to solve it, we got a solution on Conservative terms a decade later.

I think there could be something similar with planning and development now - having spent ten years fiddling with it and talking about it the Tories decided that actually Theresa Villiers' concerns mattered more than fixing the issue. If everything's to be believed, Labour will now solve it on their terms (and, if it works, reap the electoral rewards).

[Josquius]

On the polls.
I'm always curious when they talk of like Reform on 8 and the Greens on 3...just where are they expecting this to be.
From what I've read with the greens curiously it's some super rural super tory places where they're in with a shot. Which doesn't spell good news for their internal reckoning with the hobbits.

Just read that Andrew Tate's brother has been donating to Galloway's party. It takes real dedication, in an election with Nigel Farage, to somehow be the worst, most loathsome person running.

The brother who is always in his shadow and is the same but somehow lesser?
Surprising. Had them pegged as faragists.

Not a huge difference between the two but the general air of things. Galloway seems less of a geezer.

[Sheilbh]

I think the three most likely for Reform are Clacton (Farage), Ashfield (Anderson) and probably Great Yarmouth. Not sure about the rest. For the Greens it's Bristol and Brighton - plus they're talking a couple of rural seats, I think North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley (East Anglia).

The last YouGov MRP:


From More in Common:

Luke Tryl
@LukeTryl
🏁 Our final @moreincommon_
 @TheNewsAgents
 MRP projects a Labour majority of 210 & worst defeat in Tory Party history
🔴LAB 430 (+228)
🔵CON 126 (-239)
🟠LD 52 (+41)
🟡SNP 16 (-32)
🟣REF UK 2 (+2)
🟢GRN 1 (-)
🟢 PLAID 2 (-2)
⚪️ OTH 2 (+2)
N 13,556 | 24/6 to 1/7

And Focal Data:


As I say, all pointing in broadly the same direction but a fair divergence between all of these (and Survation's yesterday).

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think the tories will do slightly better than expected, with maybe 25% of the vote rather than 20%. That makes a big difference in seats won. In the privacy of the voting booth people may suddenly switch to their old allegiances; saying you will vote Reform to a pollster is easier than actually doing so.

We will know in 24 hours; so happy to say goodbye to this government. In former times parliaments were given nicknames, the long parliament, the addled parliament, the cavalier parliament....this has been the shit parliament.

BTW : I think the Star has the best front page re the election https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/04/tories-braced-for-bleak-night-what-the-papers-say-as-the-uk-votes

[Josquius]

I do suspect a lot of the don't knows are shy tories.
Always a bit of an issue but in the current climate who is going to admit to being such an absolute dreg?

Reform are curious. As on the one hand there's those afraid to admit they're such cunts but on the other hand I do suspect there's a big expectation to outwardly act all tough and brexity whilst secretly being sensible. So potentially the opposite of the tories.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I think if you're a don't know at this stage you'll probably not vote or return to the Tories.

I also think the Tories will be about 20-25% and maybe 100-150 seats. But that is based on nothing more than a a suspicion.

[Tamas]

I have cast my vote. 

[Sheilbh]

An unexpected swing to the Greens

[Josquius]

I'll post a picture of my ballot tomorrow :p

Yeah I think if you're a don't know at this stage you'll probably not vote or return to the Tories.

I also think the Tories will be about 20-25% and maybe 100-150 seats. But that is based on nothing more than a a suspicion.

I mean they're not genuine don't knows. They just say that to avoid embarrassment. They know fine well they're tories.



---

Fun story I've just heard from a colleague.
They have kids in senior school who were doing their own school election there. Different kids run for the different parties, put up posters, etc...
Yesterday, the Reform boys, went mad and ran around the whole school tearing down the posters of the other kids and generally being threatening.
Very true to form.

[crazy canuck]

Some could be deciding whether to go Reform.

[PJL]

For those who are going to be up all night watching the election coverage, here's a few tips on how to get through it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c047gr9mgxxo

Talking of election coverage, are people going to stick to one broadcaster? Or will they just flip around. Normally stick with the BBC's coverage, but might go elsewhere this time.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Apparently Channel4 coverage will be ad-free if anyone is wavering.

[Josquius]

Channel 4s does sound like it's going to be very good.
I think I'm going to go for it. Will probably sleep on the sofa but hey ho.

[Gups]

Bollinger in the fridge, burgundy ready.  It's gonna be a long night, aiming to last until 4

[garbon]

Bollinger in the fridge, burgundy ready.  It's gonna be a long night, aiming to last until 4

Party people!