Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I was just thinking that Labour were finally sounding appropriately ambitious and reforming on planning.

I think the fiscal stuff is a bit of a distraction to be honest. It all depends on a Chancellor's "fiscal rules" which people are taking far too seriously. And the IFS have been a bit mad and not very helpful in this election. I suspect that Tory tax plans - raising taxes to the highest level in 80 years - will broadly be sufficient with some fiddling round the edges like VAT on private schools.

[Sheilbh]

I'm away now (voted by post) but on leaflets I'd had three from Labour, one Lib Dem and one Reform.

[Tamas]

I had one Labour one handed to me by an activist / whatever whom I told no need to convince me, a Reform one, and something that looked like a local flavour of Reform.

[Josquius]

I've had labour, reform, greens, today in the post the lib dems, and two communist Party ones.
Lots of leaflets.
No door knockers.

[Sheilbh]

Were you in the house when the leaflets arrived? They're normally delivered by door knockers (some are central mail-outs).

[Josquius]

Were you in the house when the leaflets arrived? They're normally delivered by door knockers (some are central mail-outs).

I was in yeah, round the back though. But my doorbell is audible. If it was a door knocker they must have judged I wasn't home and not bothered.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting piece on the WhatsApp election:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/02/whatsapp-election-labour-gaza-viral-campaign

This is also something I've read about happening in other countries like India and Kenya. I think the role of messenger apps is not anywhere near as understood in part because it's so less visible (for good reasons) than social media, but is something that's emerging in some countries and communities etc.

I read a fascinating piece on recent measles outbreaks in the UK. One was particularly in British Somali communities and voice notes on WhatsApp played a big role. Another example I think of our focus on the US slightly distorting things - the US style anti-vaxxers are a very small minority, but we focus on that fight. While in covid the communities  least likely to get vaccinated were certain minorities and young people. Moaning about gammons is easy and fun for some - working out how you reach communities with specific (and interesting) concerns, like British Somalis, and information networks, or, like young people, that feel least at risk is more challenging and doesn't just neatly align with our existing political divides.

[Josquius]

I'm increasingly worried my hometown might finally become noticed on a national level with reform beating Labour thanks to the parachuted candidate.

Interesting piece on the WhatsApp election:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/02/whatsapp-election-labour-gaza-viral-campaign

This is also something I've read about happening in other countries like India and Kenya. I think the role of messenger apps is not anywhere near as understood in part because it's so less visible (for good reasons) than social media, but is something that's emerging in some countries and communities etc.

I read a fascinating piece on recent measles outbreaks in the UK. One was particularly in British Somali communities and voice notes on WhatsApp played a big role. Another example I think of our focus on the US slightly distorting things - the US style anti-vaxxers are a very small minority, but we focus on that fight. While in covid the communities  least likely to get vaccinated were certain minorities and young people. Moaning about gammons is easy and fun for some - working out how you reach communities with specific (and interesting) concerns, like British Somalis, and information networks, or, like young people, that feel least at risk is more challenging and doesn't just neatly align with our existing political divides.

The US style anti vaxers are certainly there, I know more than a few in my personal life, frequently run into this kind of shit.
Though the whatsapp point is a curious one. They're definitely getting it from somewhere and facebook gets the blame but theres more than that.

[Sheilbh]

They exist. They do not exist in enough numbers to impact the vaccination rates. The groups that are least likely to get vaccinated are young people and certain minority communities. I think the overlap is likely to be minimal.

In terms of what matters I'd say focus on where the impact is not just the loudest or the one that fits into pre-existing or American inspired cultural divides. And I think public heath focus on certain minority communities and young people would look very different than ones about/aimed at anti-vaxxers.

[Tamas]

I'm increasingly worried my hometown might finally become noticed on a national level with reform beating Labour thanks to the parachuted candidate.

Let me guess: you will still vote Green :p

[Josquius]

I'm increasingly worried my hometown might finally become noticed on a national level with reform beating Labour thanks to the parachuted candidate.

Let me guess: you will still vote Green :p

If I was there I do not know.
I do oppose what labour has got up to but the far right threat is drastically larger than where I live.
Also the sheer name of the green candidate there. I know nothing about him. But sunny moon shot. Wtf.

[Sheilbh]

Been a wide range through the race so it'll be interesting to see if they cluster. But quite the final poll from Survation:

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

I still think the Tories will do better than this - mad it's even plausible.

[Valmy]

Does nobody care about how Northern Ireland votes? 

[Sheilbh]

Does nobody care about how Northern Ireland votes? 

No - not really. None of the GB parties run in Northern Ireland.

There are separate Northern Irish polls and I don't think they're expecting that much change (Alliance might do better) because sectarian, power-sharing politics tends not to have many swing voters

[HVC]

Does nobody care about how Northern Ireland votes? 

The English don't care about the Irish. That's part of the whole problem