Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Iormlund]

edit: I should also add that with Corbyn at the helm of Labour, the smart move is very unlikely.

Had he not been at the helm of Labour, smart moves would be completely unnecessary.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Corbyn is not even the right commie; McDonnell has 10 times his intelligence and political nous 

[Habbaku]

Nous as in we?

[Duque de Bragança]

Nous/Noos as in Greek, not in French.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nous

BoJo would have liked it. 

[Iormlund]

What I don't understand about BoJo is what his mid-term plan is.

His short term goal is perfectly clear: Kill the BXP and get a 5-year government.

But what the hell is he going to do on 2 Nov if he wakes up as the newly elected PM? How will he be able to pass the agreement with a reinvigorated ERG and after culling his own moderate wing? Is he counting on opposition votes to do so? Does he really plan on slashing all tariffs to zero and be the one country on planet Earth to trade on pure WTO terms?

Is he just winging it?

[crazy canuck]

edit: I should also add that with Corbyn at the helm of Labour, the smart move is very unlikely.

Had he not been at the helm of Labour, smart moves would be completely unnecessary.

Very true

[The Brain]

What I don't understand about BoJo is what his mid-term plan is.

His short term goal is perfectly clear: Kill the BXP and get a 5-year government.

But what the hell is he going to do on 2 Nov if he wakes up as the newly elected PM? How will he be able to pass the agreement with a reinvigorated ERG and after culling his own moderate wing? Is he counting on opposition votes to do so? Does he really plan on slashing all tariffs to zero and be the one planet on Earth to trade on pure WTO terms?

Is he just winging it?

Consider the fact that Johnson is free in a sense that people like you and me are not. He has no desire to actually govern and is completely indifferent to the wellbeing of other people. He feels zero responsibility, so his shoulders have no problems with the weight. He is perfectly fine with going down in history as an embarrassing retard because he has never known the feeling of embarrassment. You're looking for answers to questions Johnson himself would never ask.

[garbon]

Some labour MPs, if vote wins tonight, will amend to put May's deal before parliament.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Guardian live coverage labelled it "shocking" that an EU briefing of diplomats has revealed there has been no negotiation with the Johnson government and that the UK has not put forward a single idea for the backstop alternatives Johnson touts as his wunderwaffen.


For me the shocking part is anybody considering this surprising. If a credible alternative existed, the British government would be very loudly and publicly advertising it, as it would validate their stance. It is very obvious, that no such thing exists, and Johnson is trying to force through things with the sheer power of bullshit.

I mean he may not have outright "put it forward" but the alternative is already known: a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What I don't understand about BoJo is what his mid-term plan is.

His short term goal is perfectly clear: Kill the BXP and get a 5-year government.

But what the hell is he going to do on 2 Nov if he wakes up as the newly elected PM? How will he be able to pass the agreement with a reinvigorated ERG and after culling his own moderate wing? Is he counting on opposition votes to do so? Does he really plan on slashing all tariffs to zero and be the one country on planet Earth to trade on pure WTO terms?

Is he just winging it?

My guess is his grand strategy is:

1. A delay gets pushed through, but basically against his wishes. He calls a snap election.
2. He can run in the election as the true defender of Brexit, undercutting the Brexit Party and presumably shoring up enough Tories. All of the live-action polling sites for British Parliamentary seats seem to suggest he's actually more likely than not to win a general election right now. Albeit with all the caveats such polling sites deserve.
3. He wins

I think his plans after that are highly speculative, and he himself may not even know. Almost any outcome wouldn't shock me, including he just barrels through onto hard Brexit; or he acknowledges legislation passed requiring a delay and "publicly begrudges it, but goes along with it as constitutionally required" then flails about "negotiating" for a few more months until we're back to where we are today where nothing has been resolved or settled at all.

[celedhring]

Ah, I thought the bill was being voted tonight, but it's just a vote on whether to bring it to a vote.

[Sophie Scholl]

I'm still baffled by how they did one referendum that was packed full of bullshit and bluster and have refused to revisit that but continue to debate it and vote on it in Parliament seemingly endlessly.  Is it impossible to do another referendum?  I mean, it was a horrible idea to start with, but it doesn't look like Parliament can do anything with it either.

[The Brain]

What would a new referendum settle?

[Sophie Scholl]

It could at least be either an affirmation of the earlier vote or a rejection of the earlier vote now that the reality of the situation has been presented more clearly.

[The Brain]

It could at least be either an affirmation of the earlier vote or a rejection of the earlier vote now that the reality of the situation has been presented more clearly.

There was also a GE after the referendum where pro-Brexit parties got a lot of support. People have had opportunities to make their will known. It may have been retarded in its way but there's a kernel of truth to "Brexit means Brexit", if you want to maintain the image that the people cannot vote "wrong" (which is central to democracy).