Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

What will an election tell us? And how will the results be after it has gone through that weird British election system?

With FPTP, everything is possible. You could see a fourway split between Con, Lab, Lib and BXP or you could see a landslide for Con if the remain vote is split between Lab and Lib or you could see Lib stronger than Lab or a massive loss for Con due to BXP stealing a considerable share of its vote ...
It's a huge gamble and it is not clear what the point is anyway. It might result in another hung parliament and it does not resolve the external constraints that Britain faces.

[Tonitrus]

I expect Farage would team up with the Conservatives.

A big question though....when Labour loses again, will Corbyn actually quit this time?

[Josquius]

I expect Farage would team up with the Conservatives.

Thats the thing with FPTP. I'd be surprised if Farage won many, if any, seats, even if he can grab 10-20% of the vote.

A big question though....when Labour loses again, will Corbyn actually quit this time?

I doubt it.
Things might be kicked back to the membership to vote on a new leader though. If we do crash out of the EU I guess some decent people will stick out their heads to become leader, as there's no way they could lose with the Tories having to deal with that.
If we avert brexit for a while longer though then god knows where that leaves us.

It basically comes down to whether farage decides to run or not.
If he does then Boris will have to play the hard right, which seems to be a plan he is already committed to. Hoping that he can convince the lumpens and fascists not to split the vote.
In doing this though he is running the risk of alienating middle class conservatives. I cannot forget the quote from a conservative campaigner in the Euro elections: If someone has books on their shelves they won't be voting conservative.

Then on the other side you've got whether they can figure out how to overcome their disunity to consider.
Is Labour trying to hoover up the soft brexiters and in the process losing remainers? Is the left wing vote being split 3 or 4 ways?

I wonder how many soft Brexiters are left.

It depends quite how hard Boris goes.

Lets not forget even hard brexit once upon a time didn't mean a no deal crash out.

[Agelastus]

Most of ours were soft, perhaps with the exception of Agelastus.

I would remind you that I said the votes a few month's ago for May's deal called for a Curzon moment; unfortunately, we lack a Curzon these days.

We just have "Ditchers" on both sides. 

Or in other words while I didn't and don't like "the deal", I still wanted it to be passed.

[Zanza]

Johnson just held a speech in front of 10 Downing Street and basically said nothing. He claimed that Brussels would somehow not countenance a "new deal" as long as they had the impression that Britain my still ask for an extension or revokation. Zero acknowledgement that the EU might have its own intrinsic motivations, pretending that everything relies on domestic British developments. He then claimed that in the EU Council on the 18th October a new deal could be passed and then ratified in time to leave on the 31st October. Which is ridiculous considering the parliamentary processes in both EU and UK. Does he ever say something of substance or pertaining to the facts?

Quick transcript I found:

I said we wouldn't wait till brexit day to deliver on the people's priorities. On wednesday javid will set out spending. Want to make streets safer, will recruit 20000 police. Want to improve hospitals and gps, 20 hospital upgrades and 34b more into nhs. Want every child have superb education, levelling up funding across prim and secon schools. To push forward this agenda we need a queens speech in october. AS we come to brexit deadline, i am encouraged by our progress. Chances of deal rising, see we want a deal, see we have a clear vision for our future, see we are utterly determined to determine our position by getting ready to come out come what may. What could hold us back is the sense that MP's might find some way to cancel the referendum, will vote for pointless delay. I don't think they will i hope that they won't. If they do they chop our legs out from under us in the negotiation. To show brussels we are united. MP's should vote with the governmetn against corbyn's pointless delay. There are no circumstance in which i will ask for a delay. We are leaving no ifs or buts. We will not go back on our promises. Armed with that conviction I believe we will get a deal in october. A deal that parliament will be able to scrutinise. In the mean time lets let negotiators get on with their work without sword of damacles or election. I don't want an election you don't want an election. Get on with people's agenda, crime, nhs, schools, cost of living, unlocking talent and opportunity with infrastructure education and technology. Let's get brexit done by 31 october.

[Tamas]

Looks like the plan for tomorrow from all concerned is:

First Parliament will go through some meaningless motions

Then the "rebel" Tories and opposition put their bill on vote that would basically force Johnson to either get a deal or ask for delay until 31st of January 2020.

Government leaks claim that if the opposition is successful with the above, Johnson will call for a general election for the 14th of October.

He will of course need Labour's help for this further push towards chaos, but I have no doubt he will get it.

[The Brain]

If Parliament wants a deal then why did they reject the deal and go for No Deal instead? Doesn't compute.

[Josquius]

Looks like the plan for tomorrow from all concerned is:

First Parliament will go through some meaningless motions

Then the "rebel" Tories and opposition put their bill on vote that would basically force Johnson to either get a deal or ask for delay until 31st of January 2020.

Government leaks claim that if the opposition is successful with the above, Johnson will call for a general election for the 14th of October.

He will of course need Labour's help for this further push towards chaos, but I have no doubt he will get it.

And his plan is then to go "Oh, did I say October? I meant November. Lets just change that..."

[Iormlund]

Most of ours were soft, perhaps with the exception of Agelastus.

Or in other words while I didn't and don't like "the deal", I still wanted it to be passed.

The deal would have been a hard Brexit. Soft was EFTA or customs union. No deal wasn't even in the cards.

It's amazing what three years of gaslighting can do to a country.

[Josquius]

Most of ours were soft, perhaps with the exception of Agelastus.

Or in other words while I didn't and don't like "the deal", I still wanted it to be passed.

The deal would have been a hard Brexit. Soft was EFTA or customs union. No deal wasn't even in the cards.

It's amazing what three years of gaslighting can do to a country.

The ERG take the blame for the deal not passing. It was specially made for them and they rejected it.

[Duque de Bragança]

Most of ours were soft, perhaps with the exception of Agelastus.

I would remind you that I said the votes a few month's ago for May's deal called for a Curzon moment; unfortunately, we lack a Curzon these days.

Curzon line in the UK? North of the line stays (somewhat close but) in the EU, south hard exit from the EU? 

[dps]

Most of ours were soft, perhaps with the exception of Agelastus.

I would remind you that I said the votes a few month's ago for May's deal called for a Curzon moment; unfortunately, we lack a Curzon these days.

How about a Balfour moment instead, so we can have a UN plan to divide the UK between the Jews and the Arabs?

[Tamas]

An autumn general election would be a "fantastic opportunity" for Scots to demand a second vote on independence, the SNP's Westminster leader has said

[Richard Hakluyt]

One of the depressing precedents that have recently been set is that referenda on fundamental changes only require 50%+1 to pass. The Scots would be advised to ask for a referendum where, say, 60% in favour is required for change. At least then the new country could start the difficult process of unravelling a 300-year-old union with some sense of unity and legitimacy.

[Syt]

Scottish War of Independence starting in 2021?