Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tonitrus]

But if Johnson prorogued until after October 31, he ran the real risk that HM would not consent.

This was speculated on the BBC earlier today...being that his meeting with the Queen was private, it was suggested that HM may have imparted something along the lines of "I'll approve this, but you have to give Parliament some window of time".

But with the UK's silly House of Lords, that window of time isn't much.

[Iormlund]

I assume that they don't actually want the UK out.

By now quite a few of us do. They clearly need the time off.

[Josquius]

Leaving is just the start of the UK being a constant pain in the arse.

[Tamas]

Very much looks like that English Steve Bannon now has a tight terror-like grip on the government and thus the country:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking

[Zanza]

Leaving is just the start of the UK being a constant pain in the arse.

Not really. The hard Irish border will briefly be an issue, but we will get used to it. The UK.itself? Just another third country.

[Iormlund]

Leaving is just the start of the UK being a constant pain in the arse.

Not really. Once you're out the relationship with the UK won't be dominating the political arena anymore. It will be just a matter to be delegated to a negotiations team. That's the sort of thing boring Brussels technocrats are good at.

[Syt]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html

Boris Johnson's gamble is paying off: Tory lead over Labour nearly DOUBLES in three weeks and most voters think the Queen was RIGHT to approve his request to suspend Parliament in his drive to deliver Brexit

- Even a fifth of Labour supporters believe Mr Johnson is doing a good job so far
- They think he has more of the 'common touch' than Jeremy Corbyn
- Only a month into the job, Jo Swinson is seen as a more suitable PM to Corbyn
- The survey puts the Tories on 31 per cent, Labour on 24 and Lib Dems on 21

Boris Johnson's gamble in suspending Parliament to deliver Brexit received a major boost last night.

The Tory poll lead over Labour has nearly doubled in three weeks and most voters think the Queen was right to approve the Prime Minister's request.

Even a fifth of Labour supporters believe Mr Johnson is doing a good job at No 10. Despite being an Old Etonian, he is seen as having more of the 'common touch' than Jeremy Corbyn.

The Survation poll for the Daily Mail is likely to fuel speculation as to how long Mr Corbyn can cling on as Labour leader.

Only a month after taking over at the Liberal Democrats, Jo Swinson is already seen as a more suitable prime minister.

The survey puts the Tories on 31 per cent, Labour on 24, the Lib Dems on 21 and Nigel Farage's Brexit Party on 14.

The Conservative lead is three percentage points higher than on August 11.



However, Mr Johnson – who inherited a six-point deficit from Theresa May – was embroiled in a clash with Sajid Javid last night after the Chancellor confronted him over the firing of one of his Treasury aides without his knowledge.

Sonia Khan was dismissed on the spot by the Prime Minister's chief aide, Dominic Cummings, amid accusations that she had leaked Brexit secrets to Philip Hammond, who was her previous boss as chancellor.

It exposed an apparently growing rift between No 10 and Mr Javid, who faced the embarrassment this week of having details of his autumn budget leaked by Downing Street before he had approved it.

An ally of Mr Javid said that the Chancellor was furious and this had 'been made clear to the Prime Minister'.

Last night Mr Cummings was unrepentant and told colleagues: 'If you don't like how I run things, there's the door – f*** off.'

Downing Street will be buoyed by strong support in the poll from Tory voters to crush a move by MPs next week to block a No Deal Brexit.

More than half say Conservative MPs who join the rebellion should be blocked from standing for the party again.

Ahead of next week's Commons showdown over Brexit:

- Mr Johnson fuelled speculation about a snap election by announcing £14billion in funding for schools;
- He warned of 'catastrophic' damage to democracy if Brexit was blocked;
- Former Tory minister Sir Oliver Letwin opened talks with Commons Speaker John Bercow over tabling a vote to potentially delay the UK's departure;
- Sir John Major joined a legal bid to block the PM's plan to suspend parliament;
- Gordon Brown said EU leaders were now prepared to scrap the October 31 deadline to avoid No Deal;
- Jeremy Corbyn called for street protests today against the prorogation;
- Michael Gove prepared to unveil a £100million No Deal information campaign with the slogan 'Get Ready'.

The Survation survey suggests the Government's stance on Brexit is starting to erode support for Nigel Farage.

Backing for the Brexit Party is down 1 percentage point since August 11 and is six points lower than it was before Mr Johnson became Prime Minister.

The prospect of a Tory-Brexit pact, seen as vital for the Conservatives to win a Commons majority, gets the thumbs-up from supporters of both parties. An alliance is backed by 63 per cent of Tories and 71 per cent of Brexit Party supporters.

The public is split over the suspension of Parliament. Mr Johnson claimed it was needed for a long overdue Queen's Speech setting out the Government's post-Brexit domestic legislation. His political foes said it was a cynical bid to stop MPs blocking No Deal.

The poll found that 40 per cent felt the Prime Minister was wrong to suspend Parliament and 39 agreed with the move.

Another 52 per cent said the Queen had made the right decision compared with 29 per cent who said she should have refused the request.

Asked who they back on Brexit, Mr Johnson is the clear winner on 45 per cent but Miss Swinson's attempt to mop up Labour voters frustarated by Mr Corbyn's stance on the issue is clearly succeeding.

Among the main three parties, the passionate Remainer has the second most popular Brexit policy on 21, with Mr Corbyn trailing on a lowly 16. Even among Labour voters, Mr Corbyn is only marginally ahead of Miss Swinson – by 33 to 29.

Mr Johnson is clear winner as 'best PM' on 45 per cent, Miss Swinson is second on 19 and Mr Corbyn third on 17.

Asked to choose between the Labour leader and pro-EU former Tory chancellor Ken Clarke as a caretaker prime minister the latter polls 32 per cent to 21 for Mr Corbyn.

As well as having more of a 'common touch', Mr Johnson is seen as more intelligent, stronger, more charismatic and more statesmanlike. Mr Corbyn leads in just one category: he is seen – marginally – as more 'caring'.

The survey emphasises the scale of the risk Mr Johnson took when he vowed the UK would cut its ties with Brussels 'do or die' on October 31.

The public support his bold aim: 49 per cent oppose moves to delay Brexit to take negotiations into extra time; 42 per cent disagree.

Fifty-two per cent say that if the EU drops the so-called Northern Ireland backstop the UK should back the deal. Only 22 per cent disagree.

But voters are not convinced Brussels will back down.

A total of 52 per cent believe we will leave without a deal, compared with 19 per cent who think we will depart having secured one. A total of 13 per cent believe we will remain in the EU.

But if Mr Johnson fails to secure an exit on October 31 his 'do or die' promise could back to haunt him. One in two voters, including one in four Conservatives, say he will have no choice but to resign.

Survation interviewed 1,020 adults online on Thursday and yesterday.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There are a lot of dodgy polls out there; take a look at this :

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/28/47-27-brits-oppose-parliament-suspension

I have no idea what the true situation is.

[Sheilbh]

There are a lot of dodgy polls out there; take a look at this :

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/28/47-27-brits-oppose-parliament-suspension

I have no idea what the true situation is.

Well my mum was rather supportive of it all. But in the background I heard my dad shouting "he should be strung up and shot". So who can say.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Hey Sheilbh and welcome back 

How's life?

[The Larch]

Sheilbh sighting!

[Tamas]

 

[The Minsky Moment]

That's some pretty heroic spin by the Daily Mail.

Using the same exact data you could write the following headline:

Boris On the Ropes: Only 41% approval, as most voters express "fear" at coming no deal exit and oppose proroguing.

The big message that comes through that poll is what a huge drag Corbyn is on Labour.

[Iormlund]

Also, only a third of Tory voters think that rebel MPs that would bring down a Conservative government should be banned from candidacy (!).

[Sheilbh]

Also Corbyn has less of a common touch than Johnson! I'd die of shame.