The Off Topic Topic

[HVC]

Looks like it's on Daileymotion. You're welcome

[HVC]

And if she likes that she'll love " Accidental Triplets With The Billionaire". Presumably the story of Musk?

[Valmy]

Why would that be? Even if birthrates are falling everywhere: if the native population without immigration is falling, and your population is still growing -> native population is being replaced. It's not that hard, and especially in western Europe people can see it happening by just looking outside.
If you're going from 95% native born population to about 65% native born population in about 40 years... (those are about the numbers for Belgium iirc).
In other words: the 'empty space' is elsewhere, not in recipient countries.

Edit: that said, if all the people that don't want kids die off only the people with genes that favour the desire to have kids will remain. The species might stabilize after a while, at a lower lever. Which is good for a lot of other issues.

I think ultimately with the immigrants birth rates falling off and the native countries also having birth rate issues the chances of the population being replaced is ultimately just not going to happen. Now granted maybe for a small country like Belgium it is different, but here in the US we have a giant population and it is pretty clear that unless Latin America just completely empties out we are unlikely to actually transform into a country of Spanish speaking brown skinned people.

And second and third generation Latino immigrants famously suck shit at speaking Spanish anyway. Just being in the United States purges other languages from your brain.

[Valmy]

@Valmy: They will try to outlaw the pill in the United States or at least in red states next to get more children again. See pro natalists like Musk.

Too late man. People just aren't having sex anymore. It's weird.

What people are you thinking about?

Young people aren't banging. At least not like we did. It is weird.

Hell my kids don't even really have friends like I did. And I send them to clubs and events and school and all kinds of places to meet other kids and they get along with them and are friendly just fine. They just don't hang out in their regular lives. Like at all. I guess it is preferable than having my kids running around the neighborhood with a bunch of young hooligans getting into trouble. But it is notable.

Granted that is just my family but it seems weirdly common.

[Valmy]

I'm not sure that not having kids is a symptom of any dysfunction.  I suspect that animals in general are not designed to procreate as a rational planned decision, at least not at a high enough rate.  You're taking one for the team when you procreate, hence why it usually requires a whole lot of hormones to make you want to get the process started, and no cooling off period afterwards.

Well one of my rational concerns was just having my family being a bunch of old people over time. That would put us all in real danger as you do need youthful energy to thrive in today's world. I have seen two older generations fade away in my family in my lifetime and it isn't pretty, but we took (and are taking) good care of them. I hesitate to imagine what it would be like if there were very few, or no, young people per old person.

There is also the issue that life would get pretty fucking lame with just elderly people around. But that is more of an emotional concern 

[Josquius]

Yep. And you would think this would completely derail the right wing's obsession about being replaced by different looking people. Clearly the great white nation will be replaced by...empty space.

But instead they seem more paranoid than ever.

Why would that be? Even if birthrates are falling everywhere: if the native population without immigration is falling, and your population is still growing -> native population is being replaced. It's not that hard, and especially in western Europe people can see it happening by just looking outside.
If you're going from 95% native born population to about 65% native born population in about 40 years... (those are about the numbers for Belgium iirc).
In other words: the 'empty space' is elsewhere, not in recipient countries.

They're replacing us but at the same time the population is growing but we're full so they're placing a burden on the system?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yep. And you would think this would completely derail the right wing's obsession about being replaced by different looking people. Clearly the great white nation will be replaced by...empty space.

But instead they seem more paranoid than ever.

Why would that be? Even if birthrates are falling everywhere: if the native population without immigration is falling, and your population is still growing -> native population is being replaced. It's not that hard, and especially in western Europe people can see it happening by just looking outside.
If you're going from 95% native born population to about 65% native born population in about 40 years... (those are about the numbers for Belgium iirc).
In other words: the 'empty space' is elsewhere, not in recipient countries.

They're replacing us but at the same time the population is growing but we're full so they're placing a burden on the system?

You need to work on your reading comprehension and logical thinking.

Native population drops.
Migrants come in.
Total population rises.
Ratio between natives and immigrants tilts towards migrants until they're majority.
Replacement happened.

[Sheilbh]

I'd add those stats don't seem right. From what I can see Belgium's has a foreign-born population of about 13% (50/50 EU and non-EU) which is at the high end in Europe but a bit lower than, say, the UK (or at least England and Wales - I'm not sure if Scotland ever did their census) or Sweden. I think it is about the same as the US.

In terms of Belgians with a "foreign background" (I understand why European states use this way of framing and want to avoid hyphens but I think it's really counter-productive because it basically means if you're any type of minority however many generations down you're still identified in some way as "foreign" - but also makes it more difficult to identify, say, specific inequalities based on race) is about 20%. Again on the high side in Europe as a whole but below the UK or Sweden so not a wild outlier.

I agree it's been a significant shift in a relatively short space of time though.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

And if she likes that she'll love " Accidental Triplets With The Billionaire". Presumably the story of Musk?

Seems to be a shitload of these being created by a company named ReelShort.  They seem to be trying to export a Chinese format for mobile-device-oriented series to the US.

[Josquius]

You need to work on your reading comprehension and logical thinking.

Native population drops.
Migrants come in.
Total population rises.
Ratio between natives and immigrants tilts towards migrants until they're majority.
Replacement happened.

Your first line is where things fail. The "Native" population has not dropped. 

This is a typical way the right lies with numbers. If I have 10 red apples then 100% of my apples are red. If I get a green apple then I no longer have 100% red apples....but I still have 10 of them.

Another common trick that you see being used these days is applying the one drop rule. Theres a thing floating about at the minute with a well known British nazi throwing a fit that at a school in London none of the kids have English as a first language.... in actual fact a lot of them do. They're just bilingual. Often with a British parent.
I don't know the Belgian numbers but in the UK mixed race people are the fastest growing group- a clear sign integration is working yet it gets spun by those seeking to mislead as meaning the opposite.

Also worth noting again that immigrants tend to drop to local birth rates within a short amount of time- and most of the world is only slightly behind Europe but following the same trend line for birth rate decline.

[Valmy]

Native population drops.
Migrants come in.
Total population rises.
Ratio between natives and immigrants tilts towards migrants until they're majority.
Replacement happened.

The immigrants and the countries they come from are not reproducing fast enough for that to happen though. People ultimately will want to stay in the culture they are from then move to Belgium. Those countries are not going to empty out and there are a lot of destinations besides just Belgium.

Especially today where you can work remotely. The idea it is better to be a janitor in the US than a professional in shit poor country just isn't as true as it used to be.

I just don't feel like this specific concern is valid. But it doesn't come from nowhere. I can see that 5% of whatever of France is Muslim but 11% or something of the young people are so it seems like they are taking over.

But I doubt that ever gets above 20% and, at least in the US, the younger generations are just less religious than their elders. Something like 25% of young people leave Islam in the US, which is probably roughly equal to the number of young people from Christianity who leave it. We are not going to see conservative Sharia super religious Islam spreading through the US. It will exist but clearly to the extent Islam becomes a big thing here it will be in a cultural sense, sort of like Judaism. The Jews who are making big impacts are not the insular super religious ones.

[Josquius]

Another annoying one is when every year the British baby name rankings come out and Muhammed is inevitably number 1....
Ignoring that basically every other Muslim in Britain is Muhammed and there's less than half the number of Muhammed's being born vs the top ranked name of a century ago (John), when the country had 60% as many people.

[Razgovory]

Another annoying one is when every year the British baby name rankings come out and Muhammed is inevitably number 1....
Ignoring that basically every other Muslim in Britain is Muhammed and there's less than half the number of Muhammed's being born vs the top ranked name of a century ago (John), when the country had 60% as many people.

After Oct 7th the name "Yahya" entered the top 100 names in Britain.

[Josquius]

OK?

[Valmy]

@Valmy: They will try to outlaw the pill in the United States or at least in red states next to get more children again. See pro natalists like Musk.

Too late man. People just aren't having sex anymore. It's weird.

What people are you thinking about?

Here you go. Some data.



I don't know if this source is accurate but it conforms to my anecdotal observations