The EU thread

[Admiral Yi]

Why is Finland's army so tiny?

[Grey Fox]

I'm think it's because there's only 5.6 millions Fins.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Why is Finland's army so tiny?

That's just the active component.  The vast majority of their strength is in reservists.  Including the Territorial Army, they can mobilize 180,000 pretty quickly in wartime. 

[Admiral Yi]

That's just the active component.  The vast majority of their strength is in reservists.  Including the Territorial Army, they can mobilize 180,000 pretty quickly in wartime. 

That makes sense.

[Razgovory]

Why is Finland's army so tiny?

Because it has a tiny population.  They are actually punching above their weight, compare this to Canada which has 22,000 active duty army soldiers and over 7 times the population.

[Valmy]

Why is Finland's army so tiny?

It is 180,000 when the reserves are called up.

[Sheilbh]

And on a per capita basis I think Finland has a bigger army than the US

It's a small country.

[Razgovory]

Why is Finland's army so tiny?

It is 180,000 when the reserves are called up.

Do they even have the equipment to furnish such a force?

[Valmy]

Why is Finland's army so tiny?

It is 180,000 when the reserves are called up.

Do they even have the equipment to furnish such a force?

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/14544-finland-to-raise-wartime-strength-to-280-000-troops.html

"Finland must prepare for the use of military force, or threat thereof, against it," the defence policy report reads. The means to do so will include raising the wartime strength by 50,000 to 280,000 troops.

"Finland strengthens its national defence and intensifies international defence co-operation. Land, maritime and air defence, as well as joint capabilities, will be developed in line with the requirements of the operating environment. New capabilities will be created for the cyber domain."

It would be weird for it to raise its military budget to not buy equipment. But I don't have any particular insider information on the ability of Finland to equip its reserves.

[Sheilbh]

I'd expect the Finns are able to equip their reserves - countries that directly border Russia tend to take defence pretty seriously. Finland was announcing huge increases in spending on defence equipment to support Ukraine and increase their own stocks two years ago - I think they've doubled spending on production, opened several new factories etc.

[Jacob]

I'm making the prediction now:

We are headed towards an open conflict between Russia and the EU + UK. It's a race between how quickly the EU countries can arm themselves to field an effective and sustainable force versus how quickly Russia can wrap up Ukraine and reconstitute their forces.

[as an aside, that means there's a risk component to the strategy of supporting the building of defense industries in Ukraine, as there's a risk that if Russia does capture Ukraine that industry will be deployed against the EU]

The scenarios that will prevent that conflict, IMO, are:

• Ukraine prevails, or at least continues to bleed the vast majority of Russia's military resources - this still very obviously (IMO) hangs in the balance.
• An internal Russian collapse for whatever reason - the economy finally collapses or Putin dies and a chaotic transition struggle ensues. It isn't something I would bank on myself.
• EU countries + UK rearm at sufficient speed and substance that Russia is deterred - Europe has the potential to get there in terms of physical capacity and manpower, but the institutional and organizational capacity is very much in question IMO. This is also why I think the risk is fairly great, because the longer Europe has the stronger it gets (as well as there's always a risk that Putin's American allies pivot away from him or lose power).

At this point I'm not confident about how a conflict between Russia and the EU + UK would turn out.

[HVC]

While possible I don't see the upside for Russia in this. They're barely keeping pace with Ukraine, what could they accomplish against the EU? Europe might not feel the urgency in arming Ukraine, but they will feel it in arming themselves. Russia better off continuing to bribe politicians and doing cyber attacks. Once the Ukraine war is over (regardless of who wins) the west will soon forget like they always do and the oligarchs can get back to oligarching. Unless of course trump sides with Russia and arms them at the least bad or joins in at the most bad, that changes the calculus.

[Razgovory]

Well, Russia doesn't have the equipment for it's reserves, so it is entirely possible for a country to be deficient in equipment despite having the manpower.

[Razgovory]

If Russia wants to have it out with  Europe (well, at least some of Europe), they will probably want to do it in the next four years.  This is basically the golden moment for them.

[Jacob]

I think the upside for Russia as envisioned by Putin is the weakening of the EU as coherent power and rival on the continent and the re-establishment of the Russkiy Mir.

Adding the Baltics and Ukraine as parts of Russia proper will provide additional resources for the imperial centre to extract and keep going. More Russia-aligned client states in the vein of Hungary, more tightly held will similarly provide additional resources for Moscow.

Relatedly, I think Russia might be in a situation where the resource burn has been so high that they need new subject areas to sustain the status quo. Peace in Ukraine with no further expansion has a significant risk of collapse as the costs of the war becomes apparent and have to be paid, with no prospect of conquest driven resources to fill that gap, and no ideology or war to justify sucking up misery.