Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Minsky Moment]

It's the Nobel Peace Prize, not the Piece of Ass Prize.

Seriously, George Mitchell was nominated for Northern Ireland as he was the lead envoy.  Clinton's main contribution was choosing good diplomats.  An under-rated skill perhaps (especially as we watch the Trumpy clowns fumble about), but one that rarely wins prizes.

[Sheilbh]

I have no issue with John Hume and David Trimble getting it for Northern Ireland.

And I agree that he chose good diplomats. The prizes are meaningless ultimately.

But I also think that while those diplomats did incredible, grinding work to get step by step to the point of agreement,  Clinton matters. Certainly in the case of Northern Ireland there were points when he was essential it was his prestige, charisma, investment in time that was really important in convincing leaders to make the jump - basically bringing all the skills and warmth that made him an effective politician to bear on Northern Irish leaders in concentrated doses (fair to say it worked more on the Nationalist side than the Unionists ). I've no doubt he was being closely advised by Mitchell, Ahern and Blair on when to engage and when to hold off but hs contribution was significant.

As I say the prizes are meaningless and I don't really know how you value it but I think Clinton's contributions go way beyond picking the right people. I suppose it's sort of the difference between the guys who do all the detailed work ad the ones who kind of make it happen/do the politics/create the conditions to do it.

[Zoupa]

Interesting development IMO: the new Syrian government has sent lots of Soviet era artillery rounds to Ukraine, obviously via Turkey.

[Josquius]

Interesting development IMO: the new Syrian government has sent lots of Soviet era artillery rounds to Ukraine, obviously via Turkey.

Good news.
The help for Ukraine side obviously is.
But also there were hints they might have been making a new deal with Russia. I see that's not happening then

[Grey Fox]

I think they tried but they couldn't get over the fact that Russians were supporting the guys that spend 20 years+ torturing them and their families.

[viper37]

Russia has depleted its tank stocks: the industry is not covering combat losses

Russia no longer has any tanks in stocks and its industry can not cover the losses it suffers.  It has to send refitted civilian vehicles to the front.

This led to the Russians' massive use of civilian vehicles for assaults. According to the General Staff of Ukraine, the number of destroyed vehicles increased from 1,000 per month in mid-2024 to 3,000 at the end of the year. This is due to the development of Ukrainian drones and a decrease in the number of Russian armored vehicles.

At the same time, losses of tanks have started to decline as they are less often involved in assaults. While in September-November 2024, 300-400 tanks were destroyed per month, in December 2024-January 2025, this figure dropped to 200-240 units.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Nice, but as long as the orcs manage to advance instead of having to retreat to shitpit from whence they came the tide hasn't turned.

[Josquius]

Nice, but as long as the orcs manage to advance instead of having to retreat to shitpit from whence they came the tide hasn't turned.

Ish.
Guess this is where the marketing based strategy vs long term strategy comes in.
Retaking land is good for Ukraines image and winning longer term support.
At the same time making the Russians sacrifice thousands for a cm of land is an approach that will pay off eventually

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Nice, but as long as the orcs manage to advance instead of having to retreat to shitpit from whence they came the tide hasn't turned.

Sure, but the main reason they've been able to advance slowly at all is that the Soviet/Russian Army never threw away anything that was even remotely useful, so they've had a massive stock of equipment to burn through.  Now that the stock is running out, they won't be able to maintain their equipment levels on the front, and the Ukrainians will be in a better position to start pushing them back.

[viper37]

Nice, but as long as the orcs manage to advance instead of having to retreat to shitpit from whence they came the tide hasn't turned.

Sure, but the main reason they've been able to advance slowly at all is that the Soviet/Russian Army never threw away anything that was even remotely useful, so they've had a massive stock of equipment to burn through.  Now that the stock is running out, they won't be able to maintain their equipment levels on the front, and the Ukrainians will be in a better position to start pushing them back.

Yes.

I see it the way the Wehrmacht advanced through Russia, and then retreated.  At first, they had the equipment and supplies to advance, to sustain their losses, to settle into a stalemate, and then they couldn't make up for the losses while the Russians were pumping cheap tanks from beyond the Urals and bringing them very quickly to the front.

Now, Russia needs people to the front, but these people can't be used in mines, can't be used in factories and sanctions are affecting them.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I see it the way the Wehrmacht advanced through Russia, and then retreated.  At first, they had the equipment and supplies to advance, to sustain their losses, to settle into a stalemate, and then they couldn't make up for the losses while the Russians were pumping cheap tanks from beyond the Urals and bringing them very quickly to the front.

That's what makes the West's foot-dragging on supplying Ukraine so frustrating.  Ukraine isn't getting the surge of equipment the Red Army got in 43-45, so it will take longer before they can exploit the deteriorating Russian situation.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Nice, but as long as the orcs manage to advance instead of having to retreat to shitpit from whence they came the tide hasn't turned.

Sure, but the main reason they've been able to advance slowly at all is that the Soviet/Russian Army never threw away anything that was even remotely useful, so they've had a massive stock of equipment to burn through.  Now that the stock is running out, they won't be able to maintain their equipment levels on the front, and the Ukrainians will be in a better position to start pushing them back.

That is what I hope for.