Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

That sounds plausible. And I hate it.

Don't fall for it.

Or do. I guess it doesn't matter if Canadians decide Trump isn't that bad.

[Jacob]

Don't fall for it.

Or do. I guess it doesn't matter if Canadians decide Trump isn't that bad.

I don't think Trump is "not that bad", that's not what's plausible. What's plausible is that he may succeed.

Is your perspective that if Trump turns the US full fascist and divides the world into spheres of influence between the US, Russia, and China; and if Europe gets partitioned into pliant client states with their own fascists in charge, and democracy is well and truly buried; but the US overall economy does well enough to keep the Trump supporting middle class and big business still on side because they're not suffering, then that's "not that bad"?

Because from my perspective that's terrible.

I'd much rather that Trump fucks up the American economy and most Americans pay a stark economic price - the sooner and the harder the better - because that's basically the best hope for Americans to get motivated to get their shit together and save democracy.

[Zanza]

Just read that Reform is now polling ahead of Labour and Tories. 

[Josquius]

Just read that Reform is now polling ahead of Labour and Tories. 

With the tories being just reform light fresh from crashing the economy.
And Labour having done a lot of unpopular stuff with no sign of actual progress yet.
The election is a ways off.
Not something to be ignored, it is a concern, but I don't think it's critical yet. Trumps success in America should help.
 As will local election victories for reform and million inevitable scandals of their incompetent vice signalling twit councilors.

[Valmy]

Next election is 2029. Plenty of time for Starmer to right the ship.

He has a lot of work to do, God knows.

[Sheilbh]

That sounds plausible. And I hate it.

Same - as I say. I'm not sure it's the least plausible of Rachman's options and in a way it's one of the ones I think I'd find most worrying.

To be clear I'm in no way saying that scenario is one where Trump isn't that bad. It is a success on its terms but I do not see the ending of Rachman's "America First Succeeds" scenario as in any way positive: "American liberals are cowed into silence and some of Trump's enemies are jailed. The stock market hits a new high."

Just read that Reform is now polling ahead of Labour and Tories. 

Oh yeah they've pulled ahead for a while with some pollsters there's a bit of a mixed bag. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tories polling below 20% soon. On a polling average, Reform have overtaken The Tories in second - obviously this wouldn't happen in just this way but plugging those figures into an election map...

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Nowcast Update: Reform overtake the Conservatives for 2nd Place.

LAB: 229 (-182), 25.2% - [97 Short]
RFM: 153 (+148), 25.1%
CON: 116 (-5), 22.1%
LDM: 72 (=), 12.5%
SNP: 42 (+33), 2.8%
GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4%
PLC: 4 (=), 0.6%
Oth: 10 (+5), 3.3%

http://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

What's really striking is that basically Labour, Tories and Reform are all polling between around 20-30% - the Lib Dems and Greens are also polling around 10-15%. Plus Labour have underwhelmed to say the least so the SNP have bounced back.

All of which is basically very difficult and unpredictable in a FPTP system - either it breaks it (Reform/Farage and the Lib Dems are very big supporters of PR; Tories and Labour not so much). Or we're in the 1920s and watching the emergence of a new party structure.

And Labour having done a lot of unpopular stuff with no sign of actual progress yet.
The election is a ways off.

What have Labour done? Genuine question - I can't really think of anything significant, which is a big part of the problem. We're six months in and all I've got is cutting money to pensioners and a tax rise that's really hurting sectors with lots of low paid staff (retail, hospitality, charities, care homes etc).

I saw a Labour cabinet source commenting that while they totally disagreed with what Trump was doing they sort of wish they'd had that energy and sense of activity and doing things. Which is mad because a British PM with a big majority is vastly more powerful/able to get stuff done on day one compared to an American President - what Trump's doing is at best questionable constitutionally/legally, but plausible (through legislation) for a British PM. Problem is everything got kicked into the long grass: long term review of social care, independent commission into the NHS, year long spending review, no change to defence until we do another Strategic Defence Review etc etc. The only area of government where they seem to have had a clear idea was Miliband - I think not unrelatedly he is the only one with senior ministerial experience and also in a non-spending department.

I always defended Starmer from the accusation of not really revealing what the plan was and talking about fairly general goals. But I am very surprised how little serious thought they've apparently done in the last 5 years on what to do in office (fully acknowledging the position changed very significantly from QE/pre-Truss environment to an environment with inflation and interest rates). The critics were right and I was wrong.

I just think of Dragh's comments to the European Parliament as it applies just as much here (as ever - British exceptionalism, good and bad, is overrated - 99% of the trends in issues shaping British politics are just as present in the rest of Europe and vice versa).

As will local election victories for reform and million inevitable scandals of their incompetent vice signalling twit councilors.

I mean we'll have to wait and see - they might win some councils. I can't imagine their experience of actually running something could go worse than the Greens - and it hasn't hurt them

But I think this is important - I posted about this a while ago but Farage is doing rallies and membership drives, they've now moved Reform from being a Ltd to being a proper political party and establishing democratic processes. They are likely to win a lot of local councillors and that's very important - they are the bedrock of party activism. And it's really crucial because in all of Farage's previous parties there's not really been any actual party beyond Farage in the media, which wins seats in the European Parliament - they are building  real party. (And I'd argue are the first British political party since Corbyn that are actually behaving like they want members.)

[Tamas]

Prime Minister Farage is a certainty the same way PM Johnson was.

[Sheilbh]

I'm less a believer in certainties - Labour are in power with a massive majority, we have parliamentary supremacy. They can actually change what the future will be. But I think Draghi's right and I think what the public have been voting for repeatedly is for Westminster to "do something!"

I'm struck at how many Labour ministers are saying they're finding it do anything. But I think it's in their hands - they've got a massive majority and just over four years left.

I broadly think Badenoch's strategy is the right one. But if Labour waste the next four years as much as they've wasted the last 9 months then I think you're right it'll be Farage who benefits not the Tories.

Edit: Also I get slightly triggered by that language of certainties because I do feel that it's part of the willed helplessness of not just the UK government but government's across Europe. Since 2010 we've just had Europe in this position and I find it enraging - it's sort of choosing helplessness and surrender to certainties rather than trying to change the conditions:

[Josquius]

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Nowcast Update: Reform overtake the Conservatives for 2nd Place.

LAB: 229 (-182), 25.2% - [97 Short]
RFM: 153 (+148), 25.1%
CON: 116 (-5), 22.1%
LDM: 72 (=), 12.5%
SNP: 42 (+33), 2.8%
GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4%
PLC: 4 (=), 0.6%
Oth: 10 (+5), 3.3%

http://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

What's really striking is that basically Labour, Tories and Reform are all polling between around 20-30% - the Lib Dems and Greens are also polling around 10-15%. Plus Labour have underwhelmed to say the least so the SNP have bounced back. [/quote]
The map is depressing. So many places up my way flipping.
Hopefully Labour take it as a prod that they have to actually do something for us.

pquote]
What have Labour done? Genuine question - I can't really think of anything significant, which is a big part of the problem. We're six months in and all I've got is cutting money to pensioners and a tax rise that's really hurting sectors with lots of low paid staff (retail, hospitality, charities, care homes etc). [/quote]

The winter fuel payment upset a lot of people, certain characters managed to spin the wealthy farmers inheritance tax business as something normal people should care about for some reason too. And then there's all the cuts. Cancelling various Tory promises- many of which were no doubt laid as traps.
One that get me is they're willing to spend 6 billion on this unnecessary lower thames crossing crap but won't stump up 6 million to stop the Tyne Bridge falling down.

I mean we'll have to wait and see - they might win some councils. I can't imagine their experience of actually running something could go worse than the Greens - and it hasn't hurt them

But I think this is important - I posted about this a while ago but Farage is doing rallies and membership drives, they've now moved Reform from being a Ltd to being a proper political party and establishing democratic processes. They are likely to win a lot of local councillors and that's very important - they are the bedrock of party activism. And it's really crucial because in all of Farage's previous parties there's not really been any actual party beyond Farage in the media, which wins seats in the European Parliament - they are building  real party. (And I'd argue are the first British political party since Corbyn that are actually behaving like they want members.)

Traditionally in local elections in many parts of the country the far right have done well by posing as local groups. In Durham you've several types "X area independents" - doesn't take much scratching to find their associations with the far right parties and tories. But they traditionally boost their chances with this regionalist posturing. I'm pretty sure I even voted for one once long ago when I hadn't done my research.
I wonder if they'll go mask off with reform rising.

[mongers]

Time for the UK to quietly scale back on the development and financing of the next generation of SLBM subs, what with those possibly becoming a 'weapon system' without the missiles?

[Sheilbh]

No. Time to invest in independent systems that are interoperable with the French.

[Sheilbh]

Reporting in the Standard that Starmer's new plan on defence, having recognised that we do need to increase spending come what may, is....to raise it from 2 to 2.5% by 2030 and 3% by 2035. The Treasury have apparently (almost) agreed and the Trump team have already been briefed and are on board.

Incidentally this time last week it was 2.5% at some point in the future. Five days ago 2.5% by 2030. Today Starmer's announced 2.5% by 2027.

Number 10 apparently a little optimistic (I got the the timing wrong) about Starmer's trip to DC after Macron's White House visit seems to have gone relatively well.

As I say we need both in parallel and at pace.

[Josquius]

Any outline given on what this increased spending actually means?
A lot of places it could be spent. Some more useful than others.
I'm hoping a lot goes into domestic manufacturing.
And let's not be splashing it on tanks and big ships please.

[mongers]

No. Time to invest in independent systems that are interoperable with the French.

That's contradictory, because this new class of SLBMs are locked into US missiles and other systems, what are the chances of current French missiles fitting or it being possible to retro fit some future Anglo-French strategic missiles into them? 

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure tanks and big ships would be a mistake (given that the UK government has recently let, I believe, the last British shipbuilder go bust that would be a helpful u-turn). Agreed on domestic manufacturing and that should mean truly domestic. The UK government has a very bad habit of giving contracts to, say, UK establishments within a French or Italian group of companies (like Leonardo) and then being shocked and disappointed to find they actually care more about decisions in Paris or Rome. We should be prioritising, say BAE, Babcock etc.

The issue is the Americans are not a reliable partner for European security. At the minute our forces are very much designed to fight small wars and counter-insurgencies broadly with American support (if not actually within an American led alliance). We've focused hugely on "special forces" to the extent that I'm not really sure they truly are specialist anymore.

What's fallen away are the forces designed to fight inter-state conflict in Europe, air power (particularly strategic and logistics) and a coherent fleet...The Defence Chiefs have been calling for that sort of stuff for a while. I think the entire British Army now is about the size of the British Army of the Rhine during the Cold War. As I say I think we should be aiming for complementary cooperation with European partners (given slightly different interests) - my view is Britain would be best focusing on the High North and the Baltics with the JEF partners in the Nordics, Baltic States and Netherlands. So whatever that needs.

I wouldn't be surprised if more than one European power starts looking at some form of national service system either.