Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Jacob]

But wouldn't around 50/50 doing better/worse than their parents be a sign of a society in a good situation with a great meritocracy?

Only if there wasn't an increase in the overall standard of living, I'd think.

[mongers]

Well Macron's Paris European security meeting called for Monday looks like a good idea, here's hoping Starmer attends, because it would be utterly pathetic if he didn't, it's the sort of emergency event you clear the diary for.

My worry is No.10 thinks it can be the 'bridge' between Trump and the sane world, something I think might have lead to the Foreign Office not releasing a statement* regarding the recent Weirmer+ statement.


* I could be wrong or missed a later release but when I checked the FO official site there was no mention of it.


edit:

It did eventually turn up, here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/weimar-statement-by-germany-france-poland-italy-spain-the-united-kingdom-the-european-external-action-service-and-the-european-commission
I wonder why it took them so many hours to put this out on official channels?

[Jacob]

I think that'd be foolish of Starmer. Elon Musk clearly has identified Starmer as an enemy, and I'd expect he's going to get the Trudeau treatment.

[mongers]

I think that'd be foolish of Starmer. Elon Musk clearly has identified Starmer as an enemy, and I'd expect he's going to get the Trudeau treatment.

Yes one would hope so.

Though it requires him to be decisive.

[Sheilbh]

I think that'd be foolish of Starmer. Elon Musk clearly has identified Starmer as an enemy, and I'd expect he's going to get the Trudeau treatment.

Yeah Musk has been banging on about the UK and Starmer since the riots - because lots of people were getting prosecuting for "Tweets". In reality because the were committing crimes on his platform, for example encouraging people to attack a hotel used to house asylum seekers.

Vance also called out the UK for "repression" of Christians. Basically because of buffer zones around places offering abortion to ban people from doing anything that might distress or harass women going in. That doesn't include private, silent prayer - but has included people (who have been prosecuted) doing rosaries for example. I think that legislation and prosecution was under the last Tory government - with stricter rules in Scotland.

On the other hand David Lammy put in a lot of work on building a relationship with Vance even before he became VP candidate and they're apparently very friendly. There are also issues with our new ambassador to DC, Lord Mandelson (not least that he has kept a shareholding in the lobbying firm he set up which was a very big lobbyist for Chinese interests in Europe) - but I think he is a fantastic schmoozer and a shameless opportunist so I think he might actually be just the man for that posting

I think any British government of any political persuasion will try to be friends with Trump because that is their job and it's the right thing to do and in our interests. Frankly I think we should be inviting him over for another state visit and talking to about getting him an honourary knighthood etc if it helps. I also think there are a few opportunities for the UK with Trump's America (some "hostile" to their project, others maybe more in line). Obviously all of that would take some decisive nimble statecraft which, at this stage, feels like far too much to hope for from this government

[mongers]

I think that'd be foolish of Starmer. Elon Musk clearly has identified Starmer as an enemy, and I'd expect he's going to get the Trudeau treatment.

Yeah Musk has been banging on about the UK and Starmer since the riots - because lots of people were getting prosecuting for "Tweets". In reality because the were committing crimes on his platform, for example encouraging people to attack a hotel used to house asylum seekers.

Vance also called out the UK for "repression" of Christians. Basically because of buffer zones around places offering abortion to ban people from doing anything that might distress or harass women going in. That doesn't include private, silent prayer - but has included people (who have been prosecuted) doing rosaries for example. I think that legislation and prosecution was under the last Tory government - with stricter rules in Scotland.

On the other hand David Lammy put in a lot of work on building a relationship with Vance even before he became VP candidate and they're apparently very friendly. There are also issues with our new ambassador to DC, Lord Mandelson (not least that he has kept a shareholding in the lobbying firm he set up which was a very big lobbyist for Chinese interests in Europe) - but I think he is a fantastic schmoozer and a shameless opportunist so I think he might actually be just the man for that posting

I think any British government of any political persuasion will try to be friends with Trump because that is their job and it's the right thing to do and in our interests. Frankly I think we should be inviting him over for another state visit and talking to about getting him an honourary knighthood etc if it helps. I also think there are a few opportunities for the UK with Trump's America (some "hostile" to their project, others maybe more in line). Obviously all of that would take some decisive nimble statecraft which, at this stage, feels like far too much to hope for from this government

So official UK government policy should be fawning and brown-nosing?


Fuck him, time for the UK to throw it's lot in with European countries we can trust.

[mongers]

Didn't notice this was in the Autumn Statement:

... and my RHF will also cancel projects in the "Restoring our Railways" programme which have not yet commenced.

If we cannot afford it, we cannot do it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Beeching_cuts_service_reopenings#%22Restoring_Your_Railway%22_(2020)

"Restoring Your Railway" (2020)
In January 2020, the Department for Transport announced a £500 million "Restoring Your Railway" fund and asked MPs, local authorities and community groups to make proposals to reinstate local services and reopen stations.[7] The government also announced £1.5 million towards plans to reopen the Northumberland line,[8] £100,000 towards assessment of the Fleetwood branch line, and £20 million for a third round of the New Stations Fund.[9]

The £500 million would not be spent on building railway lines but on developing proposals through feasibility studies, business cases and designs.[10] Proposals for projects would be sponsored by a local MP, gather local support, and then be put to a panel of experts chaired by the Rail Minister.[7] Examples given were:

upgrading a freight line to provide passenger services and restoring stations on it
restoring track and services to an old alignment
modifying an old route which has been built over.[7]
Successful proposals would receive funding to develop their business case, which would be submitted to the Department for Transport in a bid for more substantial development funding.[7]

In April 2020, the Department for Transport stated that unsuccessful proposals would receive help from the department so they could improve their proposals for a later round of ideas. At the same time, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department announced a third round of ideas for November 2020.[11]

In May 2020, the department announced that ten schemes had been successful in the first round of bidding:[7]

Reinstatement of Meir station, Stoke-on-Trent
Reinstatement of the Barrow Hill Line between Sheffield and Chesterfield
Reinstatement of the Ivanhoe Line between Burton-on-Trent and Leicester
Reinstatement of the branch lines on the Isle of Wight to Newport and Ventnor
Reinstatement of the passing loop on the Abbey Line between St Albans Abbey and Watford Junction
Reopening of stations at Wellington (Somerset) and Cullompton (Devon)
Reinstatement of the Bury to Heywood and Rochdale lines
Reinstatement of the Clitheroe to Hellifield line
Reinstatement of rail access to Devizes via a new station at Lydeway
Reintroduction of passenger rail services on the Waterside line between Totton and Fawley[12]
In November 2020, the department announced that fifteen further schemes had been successful in the second round of bidding, as well as the restoration of rail links to Okehampton:[13]

Reopening Beeston Castle and Tarporley, Cheshire
Reopening St Anne's Park, Bristol
Reopening Ferryhill, County Durham
Reinstating links between Bolton, Radcliffe, and Bury Interchange
Reinstating links between Stratford-upon-Avon to Honeybourne/Worcester Shrub Hill/Oxford
A new station at Waverley, South Yorkshire
A new station in the area of Langport/Somerton, Somerset
Improved services from Melton Mowbray to Nottingham
Improved services from Falmouth Town to Newquay[14]
Upgrading the South Fylde Line
Reinstating the Maid Marian line between Kirkby in Ashfield on the Robin Hood Line and Pye Bridge on the Erewash Valley line
Reinstating rail access to Cirencester
Restoring services between Swanage and Wareham (currently Swanage Railway)
Reinstating the South Humber rail link between Gainsborough Central and Barton-on-Humber
A new link between Consett and Newcastle[12]
In November 2020, the department announced that five schemes had been successful in the New Stations Fund 3:[13]

Edginswell, Torquay
Thanet Parkway, Kent
St Clears, Carmarthenshire
Haxby, York
Deeside Parkway, Flintshire, on the Borderlands line
In October 2021, the third and final round of successful bids were announced,[15] taking the number of schemes accepted for further feasibility studies to 38.[16]

Reopen the Darlington – Weardale line to passenger services
Reopen the Ashton – Stockport line to passenger services
Reopen the Middlewich line in Cheshire to passenger services
Reopen the Rawtenstall – Buckley Wells line to passenger services
Reopen Corsham station, Wiltshire
Reopen Stonehouse Bristol Road station, Gloucestershire
Reinstate the line and provision of new services, Tavistock – Plymouth
Reopen the Anglesey Central Railway (Gaerwen – Amlwch) to passenger services
Reopen the Oswestry to Gobowen branch line
Reopen the Stoke–Leek line
Reopen the Askern branch line, Yorkshire
Reopen the Don Valley line to passenger services
Reinstate the York-Beverley line
The first project to be completed under the "Restoring Your Railway" banner was the 15½-mile Dartmoor line from Crediton to Okehampton, where services resumed on 20 November 2021. The line had closed to passengers in 1972 but had been operated as a heritage railway from 1997 to 2019. Nine months of work by Network Rail included laying 11 miles (17 km) of new track.[17]

Closure of the scheme (2024)
Following the change of governing party after the July 2024 general election, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves (Labour), said that projects in the Restoring Your Railway programme that had not commenced would be cancelled, as part of her Commons announcement on 29 July which aimed to reduce national public spending. Reeves said that no money had been spent during that financial year for any of the schemes that were announced as Restoring Your Railway competition winners in 2021, while £76 million had been allocated for 2024–2025.[18]

[Valmy]

So did any railways get built for this 500 million?

At least in the US we seem to build things. Sure they are usually way over budget and take twice as long as we planned but something gets built.

[Valmy]

I think any British government of any political persuasion will try to be friends with Trump because that is their job and it's the right thing to do and in our interests. Frankly I think we should be inviting him over for another state visit and talking to about getting him an honourary knighthood etc if it helps. I also think there are a few opportunities for the UK with Trump's America (some "hostile" to their project, others maybe more in line). Obviously all of that would take some decisive nimble statecraft which, at this stage, feels like far too much to hope for from this government

If you do that, prepared to be treated very badly by our government. Enjoy your 30% tariffs.

Trump respects a show of strength. You yourself said he was a bully. So why go out of your way to look weak?

Do a military parade, show him your trident missiles, and the MIGHTY Royal Navy. Maybe demonstrate your long history of brutal colonization. That kind of thing would make you an honored ally of the United States.

[mongers]

So did any railways get built for this 500 million?

At least in the US we seem to build things. Sure they are usually way over budget and take twice as long as we planned but something gets built.

That's a very good question, it's not at all clear it was more than one of them, the one that was reinstated is coincidentally one I've used, Exeter St Davids to Okehampton in Devon, nice little ride but not worth 500mil. 

[Josquius]

They claimed the Northumberland line reopening here was part of it. Though that was already happening.

Most of the money ended up in the hands of consultants preparing the bids for funding. It was a ridiculous way to do things.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't think that fawning servility is the right approach to the Trump regime. It is just asking for a good kicking.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think it's about servility or fawning. I'd say instead it's about recognising our position in the world and its limits.

We may be inundated with American news and culture, but we're not domestic actors in American politics (yet) so we need to be less emotionally engaged. It is not and shouldn't be part of Britain's foreign policy to be part of the resistance. I think possibly because of how inundated we are, in polling I've seen the UK public is one of the most anti-Trump even in the context of Europe. That'll make it challenging - but I always found the criticism of May especially ridiculous given it is literally the job of a UK PM to work well with a US President whoever it is and I didn't see her do anything that, say, Macron and Trudeau weren't also trying.

Realistically the US is hugely important to our economy and - at this point - irreplaceably important to our security. The British government's job is to make that relationship as good as it can be - we shouldn't imagine that they're destiny and I think it would make a lot of sense to begin looking at a world where we do replace that security reliance. But practically we are not there and it's very unlikely we'll be there even in four years time (and given we've had eight years since the first Trump shock to do it with minimal movement, I'm not optimistic). Obviously in relation to Europe the other potential challenge is that it's not outside the realm of possibility that in 2027 we'll have President Trump on one side and President Le Pen on the other.

Practically I think we need to get into that "balancing" mindset - I don't think we can be optimistic enough for a values-led foreign policy (just putting to one side any charges of hypocrisy about Britain doing that). We can't assume reliance on the US, Europe or China - we need to keep engaged with all and look for opportunities. I think it would make a lot of sense to work more with like-minded middle countries like Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea - and countries we're relatively aligned with in Europe like the Nordics, Netherlands, Baltics etc. But that's fine in theory I think doing it would be a lot more difficult and I'm not sure this governments capable of it. Starmer's already coming in for a lotof criticism from the JEF countries - Nordics, Netherlands and Baltics - and there's a sense that Japan is really putting a lot of effort into building relations with the UK and we're just not that into them. I get the sense they're very locked in the old order - DC, Brussels, Paris, Berlin. Having said all that if it comes to the point where there's a conflict between those powers were trying to balance - I think our position means we would always have to pick the US. At this point I think anything else is delusional.

But for example on the opportunity bit - so far we've escaped being called out on tariffs and our goods trade with the US is basically neutral (tiny surpluses in different directions depending on if you look at British or American statistics). That's good and we should look to exploit it, particularly in the context of likely higher tariffs on the EU. Similarly Faisal Islam, BBC Economics Editor, said he's been told by many, many people in frontier science that the UK has a once in a lifetime opportunity right now as DOGE is gutting things like NIH to lean on its research universities (which have global reputations) and make pitches for current talent in American universities/research institutions. We absolutely should do it. As I say both of those kind of rely on being nimble and decisive so I very much doubt we'll do it

[Jacob]

Why do you always have to pick the US?

[HVC]

Yeah, if you're going to kowtow the EU is right there. And there generally more trustworthy.