Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

That sounds plausible. And I hate it.

Don't fall for it.

Or do. I guess it doesn't matter if Canadians decide Trump isn't that bad.

[Jacob]

Don't fall for it.

Or do. I guess it doesn't matter if Canadians decide Trump isn't that bad.

I don't think Trump is "not that bad", that's not what's plausible. What's plausible is that he may succeed.

Is your perspective that if Trump turns the US full fascist and divides the world into spheres of influence between the US, Russia, and China; and if Europe gets partitioned into pliant client states with their own fascists in charge, and democracy is well and truly buried; but the US overall economy does well enough to keep the Trump supporting middle class and big business still on side because they're not suffering, then that's "not that bad"?

Because from my perspective that's terrible.

I'd much rather that Trump fucks up the American economy and most Americans pay a stark economic price - the sooner and the harder the better - because that's basically the best hope for Americans to get motivated to get their shit together and save democracy.

[Zanza]

Just read that Reform is now polling ahead of Labour and Tories. 

[Josquius]

Just read that Reform is now polling ahead of Labour and Tories. 

With the tories being just reform light fresh from crashing the economy.
And Labour having done a lot of unpopular stuff with no sign of actual progress yet.
The election is a ways off.
Not something to be ignored, it is a concern, but I don't think it's critical yet. Trumps success in America should help.
 As will local election victories for reform and million inevitable scandals of their incompetent vice signalling twit councilors.

[Valmy]

Next election is 2029. Plenty of time for Starmer to right the ship.

He has a lot of work to do, God knows.

[Sheilbh]

That sounds plausible. And I hate it.

Same - as I say. I'm not sure it's the least plausible of Rachman's options and in a way it's one of the ones I think I'd find most worrying.

To be clear I'm in no way saying that scenario is one where Trump isn't that bad. It is a success on its terms but I do not see the ending of Rachman's "America First Succeeds" scenario as in any way positive: "American liberals are cowed into silence and some of Trump's enemies are jailed. The stock market hits a new high."

Just read that Reform is now polling ahead of Labour and Tories. 

Oh yeah they've pulled ahead for a while with some pollsters there's a bit of a mixed bag. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tories polling below 20% soon. On a polling average, Reform have overtaken The Tories in second - obviously this wouldn't happen in just this way but plugging those figures into an election map...

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Nowcast Update: Reform overtake the Conservatives for 2nd Place.

LAB: 229 (-182), 25.2% - [97 Short]
RFM: 153 (+148), 25.1%
CON: 116 (-5), 22.1%
LDM: 72 (=), 12.5%
SNP: 42 (+33), 2.8%
GRN: 5 (+1), 8.4%
PLC: 4 (=), 0.6%
Oth: 10 (+5), 3.3%

http://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

What's really striking is that basically Labour, Tories and Reform are all polling between around 20-30% - the Lib Dems and Greens are also polling around 10-15%. Plus Labour have underwhelmed to say the least so the SNP have bounced back.

All of which is basically very difficult and unpredictable in a FPTP system - either it breaks it (Reform/Farage and the Lib Dems are very big supporters of PR; Tories and Labour not so much). Or we're in the 1920s and watching the emergence of a new party structure.

And Labour having done a lot of unpopular stuff with no sign of actual progress yet.
The election is a ways off.

What have Labour done? Genuine question - I can't really think of anything significant, which is a big part of the problem. We're six months in and all I've got is cutting money to pensioners and a tax rise that's really hurting sectors with lots of low paid staff (retail, hospitality, charities, care homes etc).

I saw a Labour cabinet source commenting that while they totally disagreed with what Trump was doing they sort of wish they'd had that energy and sense of activity and doing things. Which is mad because a British PM with a big majority is vastly more powerful/able to get stuff done on day one compared to an American President - what Trump's doing is at best questionable constitutionally/legally, but plausible (through legislation) for a British PM. Problem is everything got kicked into the long grass: long term review of social care, independent commission into the NHS, year long spending review, no change to defence until we do another Strategic Defence Review etc etc. The only area of government where they seem to have had a clear idea was Miliband - I think not unrelatedly he is the only one with senior ministerial experience and also in a non-spending department.

I always defended Starmer from the accusation of not really revealing what the plan was and talking about fairly general goals. But I am very surprised how little serious thought they've apparently done in the last 5 years on what to do in office (fully acknowledging the position changed very significantly from QE/pre-Truss environment to an environment with inflation and interest rates). The critics were right and I was wrong.

I just think of Dragh's comments to the European Parliament as it applies just as much here (as ever - British exceptionalism, good and bad, is overrated - 99% of the trends in issues shaping British politics are just as present in the rest of Europe and vice versa).

As will local election victories for reform and million inevitable scandals of their incompetent vice signalling twit councilors.

I mean we'll have to wait and see - they might win some councils. I can't imagine their experience of actually running something could go worse than the Greens - and it hasn't hurt them

But I think this is important - I posted about this a while ago but Farage is doing rallies and membership drives, they've now moved Reform from being a Ltd to being a proper political party and establishing democratic processes. They are likely to win a lot of local councillors and that's very important - they are the bedrock of party activism. And it's really crucial because in all of Farage's previous parties there's not really been any actual party beyond Farage in the media, which wins seats in the European Parliament - they are building  real party. (And I'd argue are the first British political party since Corbyn that are actually behaving like they want members.)