[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

More on the productivity collapse in Canada since 2020.  A new report was released this morning identifying two main factors.  The large increase in low wage foreign workers in service sector jobs and a very large drop in business investment compared to the previous decade.

Here is the summary of the impact from the Globe

Business sector productivity – output per hour worked, adjusted for inflation – grew by a "respectable" annual average of 1.2 per cent over the decade before the pandemic, TD chief economist Beata Caranci and senior economist James Marple write in their report, published Thursday.

But since then, productivity growth has ground to a halt. The slowdown has been driven by a contraction in the goods sector, the report notes, and the decline is especially bad in the construction industry, where productivity has tumbled to levels last seen in the 1990s.

"Canada has seen its productivity go from bad to worse since the pandemic," the TD report says. "Without improved productivity growth, workers will face stagnating wages and government revenues will not keep pace with spending commitments, requiring higher taxes or reduced public services."

[Barrister]

I can't remember where I got into a discussion about "assault weapon bans" and how it is mostly just banning scary-looking weapons.  I don't think it was this thread, but anyways:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gun-control-buyback-trudeau-polyremembers-1.7319182

Anyways, in this article both a gun-control group, and a gun-owners group, are critical of the Liberal gun buy-back program because while it names a bunch of guns by make and model, there are virtually identical guns from different manufacturers that remain legal.

[HVC]

Isn't there some rule that when both sides dislike something it's a good law?   

[Barrister]

Isn't there some rule that when both sides dislike something it's a good law?   

You can sometimes make that argument that if one side says a law is too strict, and the other side says it's too lenient, then maybe they got the balance just right.

But when too completely opposite sides make exactly the same complaint about a law?  Maybe it's just a bad law.

[viper37]

That's why I keep my pets indoors

It's a good habit.  You never know when a crazy orange man is going to come visit you.

[crazy canuck]

BC NDP promise to scrap the provincial carbon tax if the federal requirement is removed.

They must seen something in their internal polling showing how unpopular the tax is.

Problem is the attack on the B.C. Conservatives as being climate deniers has no weight anymore because now both parties are effectively the same on that issue.  And Eby now looks like a hypocrite as he was saying he was committed to the carbon tax just a few weeks ago.

[Grey Fox]

Didn't the BC NDP had the axe the tax slogan before the CPC?

It's quite a regressive tax, not that surprising that a NDP party is ready to get rid of it.

[crazy canuck]

Didn't the BC NDP had the axe the tax slogan before the CPC?

It's quite a regressive tax, not that surprising that a NDP party is ready to get rid of it.

No, not at all.  Just a few weeks ago Eby was saying the NDP was the only choice for voters who cared about climate change because they were staunch defenders of the carbon tax.  so much for that.

It is very surprising the NDP would get rid of it now.

[crazy canuck]

I did a little searching to see what might be behind this flip flop - and it's seems pretty clear now that when the right vote was split between United and the Conservatives, the NDP didn't have to worry to much about winning the election.  And so they did not have to worry about a poll that showed that 73% of British Columbians wanted the BC government to axe the tax back in April.  Remember, that is when PP called on Eby to join the rest of the provinces and oppose the increase to the tax and also to put pressure on the Federal Liberals to get rid of the tax.  Back then Eby said he would not join in the "Baloney Factory".

Now he faces a tight election and support for an unpopular tax could cost Eby the election.  The interesting question is whether Eby will lose support to the Greens now.

[Grey Fox]

Axe the Tax, join the market!

[crazy canuck]

Axe the Tax, join the market!

Yeah, I think the carbon tax is history. There appears to be no political support for it any longer.

[Barrister]

Yeah, I have felt like the lone right-wing voice in favour of a carbon tax for the last 20-30 years.  I feel like events and public opinion have passed me by.

Any alternative to a carbon tax will be far more bureaucratic and intrusive.  I just hope and trust that at least Poilievre will go for that "bureaucratic and intrusive" approach, rather than doing nothing at all after repealing the cabon tax.

[Jacob]

This is a victory for the climate denying wing of the body politic.

Re:Poilievre - I expect "doing nothing at all", but will be happy to be surprised on this.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I have felt like the lone right-wing voice in favour of a carbon tax for the last 20-30 years.  I feel like events and public opinion have passed me by.

Any alternative to a carbon tax will be far more bureaucratic and intrusive.  I just hope and trust that at least Poilievre will go for that "bureaucratic and intrusive" approach, rather than doing nothing at all after repealing the cabon tax.

And to give you your due, a while back we had a disagreement over whether climate change would become a dominant election issue.  You were right in saying it would not.

[Barrister]

Justin Trudeau isn't going anywhere:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-defiant-and-unbowed-why-justin-trudeau-isnt-going-anywhere/

Defiant and unbowed: Why Justin Trudeau isn't going anywhere

With at most one year left for the Prime Minister to turn things around, The Globe spoke with 22 senior Liberals who paint a portrait of a leader who believes he can claw his way back to contention

Marieke WalshSenior political reporter
Robert FifeOttawa Bureau Chief
Ottawa


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been told he can't win the next election and should quit before he's defeated.

Several MPs and former cabinet ministers have publicly called for his exit, including veteran Quebec Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès at this week's caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C.

Privately, prominent party heavyweights, elder statesmen, fundraisers and campaign strategists have all urged Mr. Trudeau to leave.

Two sources say that Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was one of those who told Mr. Trudeau in a July conversation that he can't win the next election.

A former Liberal cabinet minister said that when he bluntly gave the Prime Minister the same message, he didn't blink an eye.

"I can't wait to take on Poilievre," was Mr. Trudeau's reply.

A couple of choice quotes:

The reason Mr. Trudeau is staying put comes down to three broad points, according to ministers and the staff working closest to him. First, he believes Mr. Poilievre's values and vision for Canada are diametrically opposed to his own and represent a threat to the country's social fabric. Second, the Prime Minister and his senior team believe they are clear-eyed about just how bad things are for them but believe they can recover. As well, Mr. Trudeau and his team have faced the precipice of loss before and have always managed to come out on top, so they believe they can do it again.

One senior Liberal and experienced campaign strategist said that the Liberals will have to resort to a "dirty and vicious" campaign to beat the Conservatives.

So I mean this is Liberal Party politics 101 - they can't imagine how people don't agree with them, so leap to portray anyone who does as being un-Canadian.

Behind closed doors during this week's caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., Mr. Trudeau's chief of staff Katie Telford urged MPs to stop speaking to journalists, including The Globe, according to two people in the room.

You'll note of course that tons of Liberals were talking to the Globe.

Those closest to the Prime Minister are adamant that will not happen. Ministers, MPs and senior staff say Mr. Trudeau strongly believes in his decision to stay and has privately sought to convince them of his resolve, even telling some of them the decision has already come at the cost of his marriage to Sophie Grégoire Trudeau.

So I have no idea if this is true or not - but if it's true, that's just really, really sad.

However, many believe that's in part because most voters don't know what the government has actually done. For more than a year now, ministers and MPs have asked the Prime Minister's Office for ads to define Mr. Poilievre and separate ones to ensure voters know what the government is doing for them. MPs left the caucus this week believing such ads were finally in the offing.

So I'm not a political professional - just an interested amateur.  But I've heard this talk numerous times - that bad poll numbers are just a communications issue - if we could just explain our position to the public then they'd support us!

There can be a kernel of truth to it, in particular if you're a new party or new leader - but Justin Trudeau has been on the federal scene for 10+ years.  People at this point have formed pretty firm opinions, and some slick ad campaign isn't going to change much.