Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Maybe. You could also say that deciding to rebel on the first vote of the new Government in the Kings Speech is pretty much asking for it and very dick-swingy in its very own way. It's not like this was a u-turn from thr campaign.

Yeah but the Socialist Campaign Group are always going to be rebels if Labour are in power.  I think this elevates them more than they need - better have the confidence to let McDonnell and Burgon stew. Although if the whips made a threat about suspending them then they needed to follow through.

Also I just don't think this is the issue to start putting the stick about. This is a universally unpopular policy across the Labour party andit's clear is likely to go in the next year or two. If ever there was a time to tell - especially new MPs - that just back the government on this with a wink and an explanation that they just need to work out how to pay for scrapping it. From the lobby reporters that is not what was going on it was all stick no carrot.

I think the probably would have had fewer abstentions which is what I find striking - 40 MPs abstaining on a King's Speech amendment vote in a party with a lot of new MPs. You don't want those new MPs getting into the habit and I think a different approach, especially with new MPs, might have worked.

Cunning SNP tactics to damage Labour or just trying to make themselves look good that happened to have this side effect?

I think fairly standard opposition tactics. They always try to put down amendments on the King's Speech or other types of votes that cause the government discomfort (or, for the SNP specifically, cause Labour issues as I think they also tried to amend the government motion on Gaza to make problems for Labour).

Well they could be better politicians and not be rigidly inflexible. I took from this that Rebecca Long Bailey is an exceptionally bad politician being smacked down twice by Starmer.

It's scorpion and frog. They are hard left MPs. They are always going to rebel and very likely they'll be voting with the Tories as much as the government in the next Parliament. That's what their politics is.

Edit: And briefing that the vote was a "test of virility" for the government is just It's not a manifesto pledge, it's not a policy anyone in Labour actually backs.

[Sheilbh]

ONS crime stats - I wonder if there's similar in the US.

The old government liked to boast that crime was falling in general, but it feels like these are the crimes people are most likely to experience. So I feel like it's another of those stats v lived experience things. The headline stats are falling but people are feeling something very different.

Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
Some pretty shocking crime stats just out from the ONS:

- 40% increase in theft from the person year-on-year
- shoplifting at its highest level in 20 years, up 30% year-on-year
- robbery up 8% year-on-year
- computer misuse up 37%, 42% increase in stealing personal information
Home Sec Yvette Cooper says the figures "show the disgraceful dereliction of the last Tory government on law and order"

Many in Labour think this was an underpriced factor in public anger with the Tories at the election

Although, separately, I think even the headline stats are dodgy as they exclude computer crimes (like online fraud, identity theft etc) which maybe made sense 30 years ago but now means the headline crime figures do not include the most common crime people experience. Which doesn't seem great.

[Admiral Yi]

They seem to have done a great job with moped crime.

[Sheilbh]

On HS2 lots in the National Audit Office that's incredible. Faisal Islam summarising it:
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1815731973731787144

Some key points (via Islam) from the report:

The majority of the platforms (4 out of 7) at the £570m Birmingham Curzon St station are now not required, but they will be completed but wont be fitted out....

So on a specialist viaduct with four decks spanning 65m, more than half will be ghost platforms

(Apparently because it is cheaper to build them and not use them than to change the design and not build them.

This project was supposed to be good for the North but because of the cancellation of the work north of Birmingham that phase of the journey will have slower trains than present, a reduction in capacity and it may be necessary to "manage demand":

As a result of establishing HS2 phase 1, but canning phase 2...

🔥 between MAnchester and Birmingham there could be a 17% reduction in capacity
🔥 HS2 trains "likely run slower than existing trains on West Coast main line" between MCR & BHM as they can't tilt (on the bendy line)
... while thru trains from Manc to London (Acton??), could be quicker (as the higher speed south of Brum makes up for the lower speed in the north) not only could the trains be more crowded, they might be priced out of travelling to "manage demand", which "may constrain growth"

And even on the southern wing it won't get into central London but Acton for several years (and subject to government decisions which need to be made this summer or there'll be significant cost increases):

To sum up...

The entire project was only commissioned and recommissioned on wider economic benefits to the north ie this was the totem of "Levelling Up..." a decade and a half cross party consensus.

BUT the trains can only travel high speed south of Birmingham, (and only then for a few minutes) and partly because so much was spent on this straight and hidden line (in tunnels and verges in the shires), the experience actually in the North, will be slower trains, either with a fifth less capacity, or made expensive enough to disincentivise travel, or a bit of both... and if travelling to Birmingham, over half of the the viaduct built station spanning 65 metres, will be built but mothballed from inception... and you'll for several years be getting off at Acton, as that is how long they say it will take even to set up the development corporation to secure the private finance to build it.

It looks like it'll basically be a very nice, quite fast, expensive commuter line to Birmingham (which may boost Birmingham in fairness). We built the most expensive bit that delivers least of the wider economic benefits - while the bit that was cheapest to build (less requirement for tunnels and verges etc) and delivered the most economic benefits has been shelved

Also on the Treasury, saw via Duncan Robinson (Bagehot columnist) that basically costs fall on HS2 - an arm's length body I think owned by the Transport Department. But all profits from oversite development goes to the Treasury. Which just seems like a really really bad way to allocate risk/return - but is possibly good for Treasury accounting/balance sheet

It also apparently led to far higher costs on the structural side to maximise capacity for further private sector construction (Treasury profits) later.

Edit: And I wonder if that's another difference between HMT and other finance ministries - the ROTW they may be tight but they're more honest/less addicted to balance sheet chincanery?

[Josquius]

Don't worry. This will all be used as proof that the very idea of hs2 was stupid and it was right to cancel it.

I distinctly remember moans about how it was going to just be a commuter line to Birmingham were common amongst the anti hs2 brigade. Along with the price increases they revealed their plan rather than what they opposed.

[Sheilbh]

I was very, very dubious on Ed Miliband and feel like it might still go all tits up. But some decent ideas around Great British Energy (for the small initial budget) - in particular the tie-up with the Crown Estate and moving to obtaining planning permission for the entire project (generation and connection to the grid) rather than treating them separately both strike me as very sensible. Plus I think right message from Starmer on the possible necessity of pylons (I bang on about this but we need to build a lot of energy infrastructure fast).

Also very struck at Labour seeming to have things lined up on the personnel front. DSIT have brought in a former advisor to run the government's digitisation project and a couple of reports that they already have replacements (like Baroness Harman for the EHRC) lined up for quangos and it looks like they're pushing for at least one or two to step down. On the one hand I get Tories gnashing their teeth that if when they tried to do this there was a lot of hand waving about "politicisation", on the other they had 14 years to do it plus the biggest majority in 30 years and didn't.

Sir Simon Case is apparently going to step down for health reasons this autumn which I'm sure are serious. But I'll be very glad he's gone. I think he's been a part of the problem for the last few years in a lot of ways.

[HVC]

They seem to have done a great job with moped crime.

It's YouTube, so you know, probably fake, but this came up on my shorts

[Josquius]

They seem to have done a great job with moped crime.

It's YouTube, so you know, probably fake, but this came up on my shorts

Metropolitan (London) Police, not UK police.
This was quite a thing that blew up some years ago, no idea if it still happens. I've certainly heard such crime remains high.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/25/police-risk-prosecution-for-moped-crime-tactics

[HVC]

5 just stop protesters got 4 to 5 year sentences for blocking roads. Reminds me of the discussions we used to have where people give mono a hard time for saying road blockers/protesters should be jailed

BBC

[Sheilbh]

5 just stop protesters got 4 to 5 year sentences for blocking roads. Reminds me of the discussions we used to have where people give mono a hard time for saying road blockers/protesters should be jailed

BBC

It's caused a lot of controversy - as you can well imagine.

I initially thought it was mad and then read the sentencing remarks. I still think it's probably too harsh but I'm a lot more sympathetic to the decision than I was.

[HVC]

I read up a bit more. I think they were also caught planning more disruptions?

I don't know about jail time for the road stuff. Fines and heavy handed police action? All for it. Need more batons. Protest on the side of the road if you must.

Where I think jail time warranted is in attacking art or other culturally significant items. No better then the taliban destroying artifacts.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. These are the organisers for the "protest" that blocked the M25 (the ring motorway around London) at multiple points for four days so there was huge disruptions. Every part of the motorway was impacted and several areas had to be totally closed. Their plan was to force the closure of every section.

Participants have had lower sentences.

But there was evidence for the prosecution on the impact on people who were disrupted which included:

People who missed flights;
People who missed funerals;
School students delayed for their mock exams;
A child with special needs on his way to school who missed part of the school day and his medication which placed the taxi driver driving him there at risk, as the child could become volatile without his medication;
Other school students with special educational needs being delayed on their way to school;
Somebody suffering an aggressive form of cancer who missed an appointment at a cancer clinic and had to wait 2 months for a further appointment;
People who were late to work and had to work extra hours without pay to make up the time;
An HGV driver unable to deliver £5,000 worth of food to hospital;
Perhaps ironically given the causes you espouse, an individual invited to answer questions at the House of Lords before the All Party Parliamentary Group for Water, who was unable to attend the meeting and incurred wasted expenses.

Obviously as noted this was the disruption caused by a failed plan - had they succeeded they would have caused more.

They pleaded not guilty and also had coordinated plans to cause as much disruption as possible during the trial. Their intent was to turn it into a "site of civil resistance". The police had to be called seven times and most of the defendants ended up being remanded.

Also I sort of feel that if it was, say, Tommy Robinson and his lot planning to close the entire M25 causing that type of disruptions to people's lives and then consistently disrupting the court proceedings, my instinct would be to throw the book at them (which this isn't, quite - it's not the maximum sentence). So I think I should probably apply the same standard because I'm not totally sure the cause matters in this situation.

Edit: And I tend to be a bit more "throw the book" about protests aimed at causing this type of disruption in the lives of normal people than the vandalism stuff - though I think it will probably end up with more glass and security and less accessibility in museums which will be a shame.

Edit: I also find it kind of funny that one of the parents campaigning against their daughter's (Cressida, inevitably) conviction are mentioning a lot that because of this she'll miss her brothers wedding. And I really think disruption, missing family events etc is really not an argument that works here

[HVC]

Edit: And I tend to be a bit more "throw the book" about protests aimed at causing this type of disruption in the lives of normal people than the vandalism stuff - though I think it will probably end up with more glass and security and less accessibility in museums which will be a shame.

My line of reasoning is disruption is personal, it's a moment in time. It's sucks for the people in question (and I'd be livid), which is why I'm ok with police brutality haha. but destroying art (or genuinely attempting to) destroys it for the future and everyone. But I might be weird in that regard. Even when watching films where there is explosions and mass destruction I'm not think "oh the poor people" I'm thinking "they're ruining nice scenery for future generations

[Josquius]

Blocking the m25 is pretty crap.
Blocking roads in Central London is fine. Not many excuses to be driving there.
 Though it would be nice if they could let those with valid excuses through somehow.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm happy with the sentences. People are not above the law simply because of their middle class background or that their protest has validity.