2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I'd forgotten when I made the post, but I did end up with a mug from Raytheon, kinda: it was given to me by one of the programs I worked on.  Also have one from Bloomberg and two from Twitter.  They were all swag, though.

[Grey Fox]

My workplace provides coffee & tea but no mugs. Gotta bring your own.

[Habbaku]

I wonder how many toasters have gone missing.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'd forgotten when I made the post, but I did end up with a mug from Raytheon, kinda: it was given to me by one of the programs I worked on.  Also have one from Bloomberg and two from Twitter.  They were all swag, though.

same here, we've got some swag mugs from previous jobs.
But stealing ikea mugs... why? You'd need to steal six to have a set... Meaning that guy at the plant needs to put in another order!

[Norgy]

I wonder how many toasters have gone missing.

  

[Admiral Yi]

I might have just convinced someone to vote Democrat! 

Waitress at the diner I go to all the time.

[Razgovory]

This is the most exciting political season I've ever seen.  We haven't had one like this since the 1960's.  It's not really a good thing.

[Jacob]

I might have just convinced someone to vote Democrat! 

Waitress at the diner I go to all the time.

[Jacob]

Anyways, apparently Trump's chance of winning is declining: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226

Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign "fundamentals," such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.

It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.

Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June.

However, he now only leads the current president by four points in Florida. The poll shows that 45 percent of participants plan to vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 41 percent.

It is not the only recent poll to give Trump only a four-point lead in Florida. A June Fox News survey gave Trump 50 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent for Biden.

However, poll aggregator Race to the White House has Trump on average 7.2 points ahead of Biden in the state, with Biden at 41.9 percent and Trump at 49.1 percent, while the FiveThirtyEight poll shows Biden has a 50 percent chance of winning in the state compare to Biden's 45.

Meanwhile, Trump's margin is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies' poll, his lead was slashed to only two points, with 44 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 42 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight tracker is similarly close, with Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 46 percent.

In a post on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the flurry of swing-state polls that show Biden is encroaching upon Trump's lead.

"The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today," the post added.

The latest poll represents the worst result for Trump since May 20, according to FiveThirtyEight's prediction model.

All the above polls were conducted or started before the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.

However, polls published after the assassination attempt have suggested his support base is not getting any larger.

A poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point with 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The findings also reveal that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since the firm's previous survey, conducted between July 12 and 14, which put Trump two percentage points ahead with 44 percent to Biden's 42 percent.

In the week before the shooting, national polls had Trump as the favorite to win the White House, leading narrowly in the six key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump are tied among registered voters.

However, that poll also shows 67 percent think Biden should withdraw from the race, while 85 percent say Biden is too old to serve as president, up from 81 percent in April and 68 percent just over a year ago.

Biden's fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.

I feel like maybe it's too early for senior democractic leaders to resign themselves to a Trump presidency.

[HisMajestyBOB]

My hunch is that we'll see some of those undecideds and "other candidate" voters come back to Biden/Dems as we get closer to the election. Generally, their negative attitudes towards the Dems appear more malleable than their negative attitude towards Trump.

Plus if the Fed cuts rates, we'll have an economic boost that should help the incumbent.

That said, this is all just observation and vibes, nothing concrete.

[Valmy]

My hunch is that we'll see some of those undecideds and "other candidate" voters come back to Biden/Dems as we get closer to the election. Generally, their negative attitudes towards the Dems appear more malleable than their negative attitude towards Trump.

Plus if the Fed cuts rates, we'll have an economic boost that should help the incumbent.

That said, this is all just observation and vibes, nothing concrete.

If he gets the nomination, everybody will rally. We will make the best of it and go all out.

But...you know.

[Jacob]

Seems like the "step down" movement is gathering a bit of momentum.

The risks as I see it is:

Will a potential replacement candidate drive attendance lazy Trump voters (e.g. they'll stay home vs Biden, but will come out to vote for Trump against a non-white Woman, for example)?

Will a potential replacement candidate provide new lines of attack and conspiracy theory that will invigorate Trump voters to show up and/ or depress democratic turnout? Biden's negatives have basically been priced in at this point. The replacement candidate's negatives will be new and fresh.

The new candidate will have less name recognition than Biden. How much does that matter, and how quickly can it be remedied?

Possible upsides include:

There is a substantial number of people who have bought into the negatives about Biden such that they stay home (instead of voting for him), or come out (to vote for Trump).

Neutralish:

Maybe turnout is mostly about voting for or against Trump and the Democrat candidate doesn't matter?

I don't know... it's definitely a fraught situation. I'd be interested in understanding the risk-analysis of the Democratic leadership in this situation.

[Barrister]

I might have just convinced someone to vote Democrat! 

Waitress at the diner I go to all the time.

I'm sure that'll make a huge difference in... Iowa.

But keep up the good fight Yi.

[Jacob]

If Iowa swings Dem, I will personally credit Yi. I will also buy him a meal next time I see him in person.

[DGuller]

Biden definitely seems to be on the way out, his odds on PredictIt cratered from 70 to 40 today.  It seems like all the Democratic leaders got on the same page now and had a chat with Biden.  I always thought that Biden would be as good as gone as soon as he showed anything other than total conviction to stay on, and today he let up on it.