[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

I obviously know nothing about the law, and no doubt this is impossible, but in my ideal world I'd charge him with negligent homicide. Assuming he did it of course. I take a dim view of political corruption when it kills people (I think people should hang for the uk postal thing too).

I'm unimpressed (to say the least) by Sajjan in this incident - but it's almost impossible to charge a politician with a crime when they're acting within the scope of their authority - and for good reason.

Every decision by a politician will involve trade-offs.

Trying to think of a simple example... Minister of Transport is presented with a plan to slow down traffic on a given road by installing speed bumps.  Minister says no - it would slow down the overall flow of traffic too much.  One year later a pedestrian is killed right where the proposed speed bumps would have gone - the speed bumps might well have saved that person's life if they had been installed.  You can't charge the minister with "negligent homicide".*

No - the proper recourse is (as it is here) political - that voters are allowed to say "Harjit Sajjan that's bullshit you're prioritizing Afghan Sikhs over those with ties to Canada".



*(I could go into the fact there is no charge of negligent homicide in Canada - the closest equivalent is criminal negligence causing death, and that even then it requires "wanton and reckless disregard" for the lives of others, which I don't think is at all made out here, as poorly thought out as this order/"suggestion" was)

A more fitting comparison is finding out the minister of transportation kiboshed a roadbump program already in process because he has connections to a speed camera company. The extra step of corruption is what think makes it wrong, not the being being dumb in and of itself. But I hear ya.

As to the asterisk, close enough

[Barrister]

A more fitting comparison is finding out the minister of transportation kiboshed a roadbump program already in process because he has connections to a speed camera company. The extra step of corruption is what think makes it wrong, not the being being dumb in and of itself. But I hear ya.

I agree that would be corruption - but the element is that the minister is profiting from a decision he made.  It doesn't even matter if someone died as a result.

What's lacking in a corruption charge here is there's nothing to suggest Sajjan received a personal benefit.  On the face of it there's nothing wrong with trying to protect a group of Afghan Sikhs from the Taliban.  It's just when it means doing a crappy job in protecting Canadians or those connected to Canada it's terrible policy.

[HVC]

I have to imagine the Sikh organization  that contacted him threw him some donations over the years.

[viper37]

Liberals at their backstabbing best again

Steven Guilbeault has been taking the temperature of the Liberal Party caucus as calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation mount.
The environment minister was in Toronto this week to meet with Members of Parliament who were awestruck by Monday's upset defeat in the Toronto–St Paul's byelection. He spent Thursday working the phones with Liberals across the country trying to take stock of how bad things really are.

I know this because Guilbault did some of this work in public, in the Via Rail business lounge, as he sat next to Canada's least-recognizable columnist: Me.

"If we're not trying to address it, it will fester," Guilbeault mused into his wireless headphones, loudly enough for me to hear without moving a muscle. "So this conversation will need to happen whether we want (it) to or not."

The conversation, as he phrased it on a subsequent call in French, is the same one every political pundit in Canada is having this week: Should Justin Trudeau stay or should he go?

Over the course of three phone calls, it became clear Guilbeault was feeling around for who might be most likely to call for Trudeau's departure. "I've been asked by PMO (the Prime Minister's Office) to make some calls and talk to people and report back," he said on one of those calls.

To date, a ragtag crew of mostly-retired politicians — ex-MPs Wayne Easter and John Manley, former B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark, as well as the environment minister's predecessor Catherine McKenna — have all urged Trudeau to go. No sitting MP has yet made such a demand.

That may change.

From his meetings, Guilbeault gleaned, "people are in shock. It's not just in the 416, or in Ontario, it's across the country." Some are "tanné," he said — a particularly Quebecois word, a mix of tired and annoyed — whereas others are just "stressed."

It might not exist yet, but Guilbeault repeatedly warned there could soon be a "campaign to show (Trudeau) the door."

I sent Guilbeault a direct message on Twitter Thursday night, which he saw but did not reply to. I also reached out to the prime minister's office, and several supposedly dissident MPs for comment Thursday night and Friday morning. None replied. (I also tried to intercept Guilbeault when we arrived in Montreal in the wee hours Friday, to no avail. We were on the same train but in different cabins and by the time I spotted him he was already in a taxi, driving away.)

In background conversations with multiple Liberals, including multiple members of Parliament, it became clear that there are several Toronto-area MPs who are growing anxious. After Monday's stunning defeat, they now believe they could lose their reelection bids, and are starting to speak of revolt. I overheard Guilbault mentioning Toronto–Danforth MP Julie Dabrusin and Etobicoke–Lakeshore MP James Maloney by name.

Dabrusin, Guilbeault said, "is not necessarily saying that the boss has to go," using the Liberals' preferred nickname for Trudeau. "But she's saying that we need change."

I heard those same two names from two well-placed Liberal sources, while another source added Don Valley West MP Rob Oliphant, who multiple sources have told me in recent months has been growing increasingly disgruntled, to the mix. All are all worried, unhappy, and "stirring up (the) Toronto caucus." Multiple sources told me that, right now, this is mostly just private griping. But it might not stay that way.

As I sat on the train en route to Montreal, I spoke to one Member of Parliament who rattled off the names of a half-dozen Liberal MPs who are becoming increasingly noisy in their calls for the prime minister to quit. They put the "sedition number" at 15 to 20 members of caucus. Some of those rebels are drafting a letter calling for the prime minister to take his walk in the snow. (Given we are heading into July, it might look more like a dip in the lake.)

A bigger rump in caucus are open to being swayed either way, the MP said. But they need to see evidence that the leadership is capable of change.
In his calls, Guilbeault was alternately reassuring and speculative.

While some Liberal MPs might be rattling their chains, he said on the phone, Trudeau is still the odds-on favorite to lead the Liberals into the next election. "It's highly unlikely that it happens," he said — it, he made clear, being Trudeau's resignation. But, Guilbeault added, "I wouldn't rule it out."

Unlikely as it may be, Guilbeault began gaming out what a post-Trudeau near future could look like. It wouldn't be easy, he said, and would probably plunge the
Liberals into a leadership race next June.
"The three finalists," he speculated, "are Chrystia [Freeland], Anita Anand, Mark Carney." As to whether any of those non-Trudeau Liberal candidates could win the election, slated for fall of 2025, he offered only a "peut-être." It's not a sure thing, he said. (Other sources have told me in recent months that Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne are all, to varying degrees, organizing to run for the top job when Trudeau eventually exits.)

That kind of speculation isn't unique to Guilbeault, sources told me. "Most of cabinet," wants Trudeau gone, the ex-staffer told me Thursday evening, "but won't say anything to him, so they're gossiping with each other." Finger-pointing and blame are running rampant, as the Liberals try to understand how they lost one of the country's most reliably Liberal seats.

Guilbeault seemed at least alive to the threat all that grumbling could pose. "It makes it more difficult for the boss to stay," he said. "The last thing we should do is ignore this."

I don't know whether Guilbeault was making his calls on orders from the PMO, or if he just volunteered for the job. But there is definitely some outreach happening. I heard Guilbeault say in one call and a PMO source later confirmed that Trudeau has personally been making calls to some MPs in recent days, particularly those in vulnerable Toronto ridings.

So far, though, those efforts have been limited. I asked one Member of Parliament whether they'd heard anything from Trudeau, the PMO, or Guilbeault. "No word. Zippo. Nadda. Quiet. Nothing," they texted back.

In one call, Guilbeault ran through some options as to what could happen next to allay nerves: The prime minister could call an emergency caucus meeting, or he could do more direct outreach to the regional caucus chairs.
"We have to do something," he said. "Unless the PM wants to do 150 calls over the summertime," referring to roughly the number of Liberal MPs in the House of Commons. (La Presse reported Thursday that a national caucus retreat had been discussed earlier in June, before the end of the parliamentary session, but ruled out.)

But more talking might not be enough. Another MP told me there are now increasing demands inside caucus for something tangible to happen."There is a general view that there needs to be changes in cabinet and PMO," the MP said.

They identified half a dozen ministers who they believed should be demoted or dropped from caucus entirely, including some of the most senior members of Trudeau's team.

The tone I'm hearing from caucus is steelier than it has been in the past. At the end-of-session retreat last June, MPs began to make their displeasure heard. The elected Liberals were increasingly frustrated at being marginalized and ignored, particularly as Canadians were growing fed up with nine years of Liberal rule. Trudeau promised he had heard those concerns. That caucus "ended on a high note," Guilbeault said on one call.
A year on, all those complaints remain. Never mind the mounting problems facing the country, the prime minister is having a hard time connecting with the MPs who delivered him three successive election wins.

Things are likely to get worse. There are four more byelections on the horizon, including three Liberal seats — two, in Halifax and B.C — the Liberals are likely to lose. But the most stinging loss would be in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, a traditionally safe Liberal seat in Montreal that former justice minister David Lametti won with ease in the last three elections. One influential Montreal Liberal told me the party is almost certain to lose the seat to Craig Sauvé, a popular city councilor running for the NDP.

This is the big, and possibly final, test of Trudeau's leadership. If he can't convince his own caucus that he is capable of change, how can he possibly convince the country?

When he ascended to the helm of the Liberal Party in 2013, Trudeau told his team that the days of internal squabbles and out-of-touch politicos were over. "Canadians want better leadership and a better government," he insisted. "Canadians want to be led, not ruled."

If he can convince his caucus those lofty promises are true today, even if they weren't then, he will likely keep his job. If he can't he clearly has to go.

[Josephus]

I think the Liberal leadership issue will come to a definitive conclusion soon. Either enough MPs, caucus members, etc.  rebel, or enough come out and say they have faith in Trudeau to lead them into the next election. But this won't drag on for a year; it will happen soon.

[Barrister]

I think the Liberal leadership issue will come to a definitive conclusion soon. Either enough MPs, caucus members, etc.  rebel, or enough come out and say they have faith in Trudeau to lead them into the next election. But this won't drag on for a year; it will happen soon.

It can't drag out for a year - the next election is supposed to be held October 2025 (although if the government amends the Elections Act they could extend it one more year).

[Josephus]

October 25 is more than a year away

[viper37]

October 25 is more than a year away

1 year and 4 months.
But it's summer, and everyone is in vacation, so technically, it's one year as nothing is likely to happen before September.

[Josephus]

True. But there's normally a lot of talk, gossip and inunendo in the summer. But I'll give you that.

Expect something to happen, or not, in the Liberal leadership by October 2024. Either there's an open revolt, or an open lovefest. One way or another it will be settled by then.

[crazy canuck]

In all the hubbub surrounding Biden, something flying a little under the radar is the increasing pressure on Trudeau to step aside.

[viper37]

In all the hubbub surrounding Biden, something flying a little under the radar is the increasing pressure on Trudeau to step aside.

We keep talking about it...

[crazy canuck]

There have been several more moves since you last posted about it

[Josephus]

There have been several more moves since you last posted about it

The two could be coreelated as well. If Biden steps down, there may be additonal pressure on JT to do likewise. If Biden asserts himself, Trudeau may convince his party to let him hang on. Either way, there will be a definitive decision on this by the fall, as I said earlier.

[crazy canuck]

There have been several more moves since you last posted about it

The two could be coreelated as well. If Biden steps down, there may be additonal pressure on JT to do likewise. If Biden asserts himself, Trudeau may convince his party to let him hang on. Either way, there will be a definitive decision on this by the fall, as I said earlier.

Very good point

[Barrister]

The two could be coreelated as well. If Biden steps down, there may be additonal pressure on JT to do likewise. If Biden asserts himself, Trudeau may convince his party to let him hang on. Either way, there will be a definitive decision on this by the fall, as I said earlier.

I really don't think there's any linkage between Trudeau and Biden.

The pressure on Biden is entirely that he's too old, and his debate performance just confirmed everyone's fears on this point.  I don't think anyone out there dislikes Joe Biden as a person - it's just his abilities.  His record in office has been strong.

Trudeau isn't particularly old - he's only 52.  I think at this point it is that people are in fact tired of Trudeau.  HIs record in office is not strong - the issue of housing keeps coming up in particular.

As well - I know people on the left deeply dislike Poilievre, but there just isn't the same "democracy is on the line" vibe in Canada as there is in the US.